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Old 02-01-2019, 01:40 PM   #41
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I don't want to jinx anything but I kind of feel like stocks have reached a permanently high plateau or something.
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NOW you did it! Get ready for a huge plunge!
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Fear not.

He's a stock picker/market timer/day trader. His performance (or lack of it as it may be) does not necessarily reflect what happens to the rest of us.
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Old 02-01-2019, 02:19 PM   #42
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9.67% YTD - Simplified in November, moved everything to an equal weight S&P fund. Total brokerage is almost back to September levels!
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Old 02-01-2019, 02:48 PM   #43
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I am not Chinese nor superstitious, but in the past whenever I feel complacent or so sure of something, I overlook something else that jumps up and bites me in the behind.

And that goes beyond investing too.

I try not to be superstitious, but I'm convinced the reason the market got so sketchy in October is because I bought a house in September! It did it just to make me feel antsy about getting back into a mortgage!
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Old 02-01-2019, 03:03 PM   #44
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8.92% YTD - I'm glad to see that the strategy of doing nothing when the market is down, has continued to be the right strategy.
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Old 02-01-2019, 07:02 PM   #45
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But let's not get too excited. IIRC, 2018 started out with a similar run-up in January.
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Old 02-01-2019, 07:14 PM   #46
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Old 02-01-2019, 08:12 PM   #47
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But let's not get too excited. IIRC, 2018 started out with a similar run-up in January.
That's OK if we can all properly time it, to sell in October ! .....right ?
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Old 02-01-2019, 08:57 PM   #48
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I had to wait until this morning to get all the totals in, but it looks like for the month of January, my return is about 7.94%. Hopefully, it holds! I've now "made back" more in 2019, than what I "lost" in all of 2018.
I don't usually check my 1 month returns, but I did and got 7.94% too! Maybe we are soul brothers?

Anyway, Dec 31 was so awful almost any portfolio should look good by comparison..
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Old 02-01-2019, 09:00 PM   #49
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Perhaps not that many buy and hold investors with 60/40 AA, with all the reported 8%+ returns.
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Old 02-01-2019, 09:28 PM   #50
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... I've often mentioned how I prefer to monitor a 3 year average because it smooths out the roller coaster a bit. My 3 year is 9.5% despite '18 being a dog.
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You made me look.

My 3-year return of 1/31/2016-1/31/2019 is 34.34% cumulative.

Annualized, it's 10.34%/year. Stock AA has been around 70%, with the rest mostly in cash...
Just reviewed the MFs in some of my smaller accounts which I do not pay a lot of attention to. Rediscovered 2 accounts from which Quicken stopped being able to download. I was going to look into that, but forgot. And it has been more than 2 years. Gah!

So, I had to look up the account info to log into those Web sites to pull statements to update Quicken by hand. And with the 2 years of re-invested dividends properly posted in these smaller accounts, my 3-year cumulative return is now 34.87%.

Annualized, it's 10.49%/year.

For the sake of accurate accounting...
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Old 02-01-2019, 09:33 PM   #51
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Perhaps not that many buy and hold investors with 60/40 AA, with all the reported 8%+ returns.
Some have a higher stock AA than 60%. And they stepped up to buy at the 2018 year-end bottom. Or they loaded up on the stocks that got dumped the most, and have since rebounded strongest.

Only time will tell if these gains will not evaporate in a week, or a month.
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Old 02-01-2019, 10:58 PM   #52
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But let's not get too excited. IIRC, 2018 started out with a similar run-up in January.

We are optimistic lot and have short memory.
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Old 02-01-2019, 11:16 PM   #53
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Glad I stayed invested thru the last quarter's correction.
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Old 02-02-2019, 08:17 AM   #54
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I don't usually check my 1 month returns, but I did and got 7.94% too! Maybe we are soul brothers?

Anyway, Dec 31 was so awful almost any portfolio should look good by comparison..
Wow, small world! Anyway, hopefully it's onward and upward from here!

Also, not to obsess over it, but thanks to a slight upward tick yesterday, I'm now at 8.16%. All I need is a slight hiccup, in the right direction, to get me to 8.52%, and that would make 2019 my third best year, on a strictly dollar basis (rather than rate of return).

It's kinda cool to think that, theoretically, over the course of just the first month and a few extra days, 2019 could be my third best year, even if the year was flat for the remaining 10+ months. Although, seeing the market stay flat for 10+ months, can be its own form of aggravation. Funny, how the human mind can work.
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Old 02-02-2019, 09:21 AM   #55
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Wow, small world! Anyway, hopefully it's onward and upward from here!

Also, not to obsess over it, but thanks to a slight upward tick yesterday, I'm now at 8.16%. All I need is a slight hiccup, in the right direction, to get me to 8.52%, and that would make 2019 my third best year, on a strictly dollar basis (rather than rate of return).

It's kinda cool to think that, theoretically, over the course of just the first month and a few extra days, 2019 could be my third best year, even if the year was flat for the remaining 10+ months. Although, seeing the market stay flat for 10+ months, can be its own form of aggravation. Funny, how the human mind can work.
I did also wish that the market would stay flat after the late summer of 2018.
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Old 02-02-2019, 09:33 AM   #56
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Perhaps not that many buy and hold investors with 60/40 AA, with all the reported 8%+ returns.
Seems that those posted that kind of return is 100% equity. Good luck! They won't be posting their return if the market takes a 50% drop.
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Old 02-02-2019, 09:36 AM   #57
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Up around 5% YTD in our taxable retirement fund (50/50), well more than making up for our Jan annual income withdrawal.
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Old 02-02-2019, 09:44 AM   #58
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Quicken tells me that small and mid-cap funds helped boost performance over expected in January. I recall they did well early in 2018 but dragged things down later on.

I follow the VTHRX high-level (stock/bond) allocation, currently about 70/30 but I overweight the extended market in specific fund choices.
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Old 02-02-2019, 11:21 AM   #59
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Seems that those posted that kind of return is 100% equity. Good luck! They won't be posting their return if the market takes a 50% drop.

It's perfectly safe when your nest egg is 'extra' on top of well-run fully funded pensions...
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Old 02-02-2019, 11:31 AM   #60
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It's perfectly safe when your nest egg is 'extra' on top of well-run fully funded pensions...
Or for those without pensions, it is also perfectly safe if your nest egg is $10,000,000 such that a 50% drop still leaves you with a bit of coin.
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