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Re: 24 year old trying to get to millionaire by 35, punch holes in me plan
Old 03-01-2007, 04:48 PM   #41
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Re: 24 year old trying to get to millionaire by 35, punch holes in me plan

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Originally Posted by Sam
I did a poll 2 days ago about the drop on 02/27, several people also reported YTD. Here's the link.

http://early-retirement.org/forums/i...?topic=12561.0
Here's the problem, you all claim to be indexers but yet some of you are up 1.0% - 1.6% YTD which is pretty much impossible for indexers to be this year. VIVAX, VFINX, VWO, all the funds you are touting are down 1-2% this year, yet you all claim to be up. Something has to give here...
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Re: 24 year old trying to get to millionaire by 35, punch holes in me plan
Old 03-01-2007, 04:51 PM   #42
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Re: 24 year old trying to get to millionaire by 35, punch holes in me plan

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Originally Posted by REWahoo!
AJ, welcome to the board...I think.

Hold off trading insults for a minute and take a step back to look at the situation if you would. Look at how you titled your thread. You asked for "holes" and got shelled. Don't get mad, ask why others (most of who have many, many more years of investing experience than you) are recommending a different direction, lower expectations, etc.

While you are at it, I would request both you and those responding to you keep it civil. I suspect few on this board have ever seen a haystack, so using that term and calling people ignorant might not be the best way to solicit advice...which is why you are here, right?

Hi Wahoo, yes I may have been a bit uncivil, but it just shocks me that for a forum which I thought touted intellectual discourse of the market, you have completely deified index funds. Anybody mentions actively managed and you're at their throats. Seems fairly odd, since M-Star, Motley Fools, all seem to agree with my plan, and apparently all of you think I'm going broke. Oh well, sorry if I was a bit too acerbic
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Re: 24 year old trying to get to millionaire by 35, punch holes in me plan
Old 03-01-2007, 04:53 PM   #43
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Re: 24 year old trying to get to millionaire by 35, punch holes in me plan

If you have fairly good health, and it's available given your current situation, without a doubt you need to get a high deductible health insurance plan and get an HSA to sock away $2,850 (indexed to inflation), deduct it from your taxes, and withdraw it tax free for healthcare expenses (or pay regular income tax on withdrawals when you're over 65). Especially given your tax bracket.
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Re: 24 year old trying to get to millionaire by 35, punch holes in me plan
Old 03-01-2007, 04:55 PM   #44
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Re: 24 year old trying to get to millionaire by 35, punch holes in me plan

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Originally Posted by AirJordan
Here's the problem, you all claim to be indexers...
I don't think so. Yes, many of us may have a the core of our investments in index funds, but we're all over the board (no pun intended).

What I think you can accurately generalize about the investing style on this board is that few of us realistically believe we can attain 12-14% returns for any foreseeable time period, and to take the risks associated with striving for that average rate of return is not something we would advise.

FYI, I have no index funds and have approximately 10% of my portfolio in DODFX.

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Re: 24 year old trying to get to millionaire by 35, punch holes in me plan
Old 03-01-2007, 04:55 PM   #45
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Re: 24 year old trying to get to millionaire by 35, punch holes in me plan

AirJordan, you need to cool down. People are giving you the benefit of the doubt because of your youth. Don't push it.

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Here's the problem, you all claim to be indexers
Who all made that claim? Be very specific with your answer, and make sure you have proof.

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Re: 24 year old trying to get to millionaire by 35, punch holes in me plan
Old 03-01-2007, 04:58 PM   #46
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Re: 24 year old trying to get to millionaire by 35, punch holes in me plan

You must be a litigator, not a title searcher

Seriously, plenty of index funds are up this year. Just a few - VG small cap, 2%, Vg midcap: 3%, REIT index: 4%, Pacific index: 3.5%. That's as of March 1 closing prices.

Many of us "index deifiers" own many of these funds.

I'm not so sure "index deifiers" is an insult...
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Re: 24 year old trying to get to millionaire by 35, punch holes in me plan
Old 03-01-2007, 05:01 PM   #47
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Re: 24 year old trying to get to millionaire by 35, punch holes in me plan

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Originally Posted by Sam
AirJordan, you need to cool down. People are giving you the benefit of the doubt because of your youth. Don't push it.

Who all made that claim? Be very specific with your answer, and make sure you have proof.

Ok Sam, I made a big generalization there, but it just seems that every single person who responded said, this will never work, past performance doesn't secure future, stick with indexes. Never did I hear one person say active management could beat the market. Perhaps I oversimplified things, since your mod appears to be a very smart fellow to have 10% of his portfolio with D&C I'll try to be nicer from now on, instead of being a young punk
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Re: 24 year old trying to get to millionaire by 35, punch holes in me plan
Old 03-01-2007, 05:06 PM   #48
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Re: 24 year old trying to get to millionaire by 35, punch holes in me plan

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Originally Posted by AirJordan
... Perhaps I oversimplified things, since your mod appears to have 10% of his portfolio with D&C I'll try to be nicer from now on, instead of being a young punk
Sounds good. And BTW, when you combine my DODFX and DODBX, D&C has 30% of my portfolio.

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Re: 24 year old trying to get to millionaire by 35, punch holes in me plan
Old 03-01-2007, 05:09 PM   #49
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Re: 24 year old trying to get to millionaire by 35, punch holes in me plan

M* Vanguard Diehards think this is a great plan??

Once I was just plain unclemick had a webtv and posted here about my brilliant - laddered dividend stocks via DRIP plans - took a little flack over that one a few years back.

I don't care - I still chase performance(a little, 15% of portfolio) - it's male, hormonal and totally incurable. Only one file cabinet and I don't drive afterward.

Yeah yeah yeah - early retirement rides on balanced index.

But it only takes one stock to put me in Margaritaville - forty years and still trying.

heh heh heh - And I got a cool Curmudgeon certificate. I think you can make, but I also think you 'may' be paying more in expenses for the trip than you have to.

Hobby stocks anyone :
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Re: 24 year old trying to get to millionaire by 35, punch holes in me plan
Old 03-01-2007, 05:11 PM   #50
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Re: 24 year old trying to get to millionaire by 35, punch holes in me plan

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Originally Posted by AirJordan
3. Millionaire by 35 possible?

Thanks for the help
AJ
Just curious. Why did you ask this question since the answer was already imbedded in your post? You gave the value of your current investments, the value you plan to invest in the future, the time period and the returns you expect. That's everything you need to calculate the answer.

Yes, with $65K now, adding $65K annually and meeting your target of 12% - 14% via managed funds, you'll be more than a millionaire by 35.
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Re: 24 year old trying to get to millionaire by 35, punch holes in me plan
Old 03-01-2007, 05:17 PM   #51
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Re: 24 year old trying to get to millionaire by 35, punch holes in me plan

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Originally Posted by youbet
Just curious. Why did you ask this question since the answer was already imbedded in your post? You gave the value of your current investments, the value you plan to invest in the future, the time period and the returns you expect. That's everything you need to calculate the answer.

Yes, with $65K now, adding $65K annually and meeting your target of 12% - 14% via managed funds, you'll be more than a millionaire by 35.
Yah this whole thread is pretty silly now I think about it. Sorry for coming off like an ass, blah blah I have a 100k a year job and I'm only 24. The thing is I by no means want to retire at 35, probably around 50, when I hopefully have 6+ million saved up. I basically just wanted a critique of my investment plan, from which the overwhelming response is put all your money in Vanguard index funds. I think I can do better, but perhaps I'm wrong and you can all laugh at my demise. I was just surprised that so few of you are invested in actively managed funds. There are a lot of great ones out there

Dodge and Cox
Fairholme
Third Avenue Value to name a few, but maybe their 10 year hot streak was just luck
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Re: 24 year old trying to get to millionaire by 35, punch holes in me plan
Old 03-01-2007, 05:33 PM   #52
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Re: 24 year old trying to get to millionaire by 35, punch holes in me plan

Let's call it skill - no good deed goes unpunished - past performance brings money flooding in - which can limit the ability of management to deploy it - and performance begins to suffer. Closing the fund to new investors(Dodge and Cox) can help but it's a judgement call by management to SWAG the particular area of the market they are targeting for investment.

That and the fickle finger of fate(historical cycles) can put various asset classes and sectors in and out of season for varying periods of time.

heh heh heh
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Re: 24 year old trying to get to millionaire by 35, punch holes in me plan
Old 03-01-2007, 05:36 PM   #53
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Re: 24 year old trying to get to millionaire by 35, punch holes in me plan

If I recall correctly that Dogge and Cox fund invests a high percentage in emerging market stocks.

I expect that those stocks just may get hammered this year as investors flee them in search of safety. The bubble just may pop on that fund.

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Re: 24 year old trying to get to millionaire by 35, punch holes in me plan
Old 03-01-2007, 05:39 PM   #54
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Re: 24 year old trying to get to millionaire by 35, punch holes in me plan

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Originally Posted by AirJordan
Yah this whole thread is pretty silly now I think about it. Sorry for coming off like an ass, blah blah I have a 100k a year job and I'm only 24.
If it makes you feel any better, a few of my close friends are 24 and all made 125k-150k last year. One of my business partners is also a lawyer who graduated from law school (Harvard) at a young age (23). He didn't make 100k but got a lot of stock options which are now worth seven figures. My experience has been that the better you are, the higher you rise, until suddenly you've risen so high, that when you stop to look around, you're just about average again, compared to the people around you...
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Re: 24 year old trying to get to millionaire by 35, punch holes in me plan
Old 03-01-2007, 05:55 PM   #55
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Re: 24 year old trying to get to millionaire by 35, punch holes in me plan

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Originally Posted by MasterBlaster
If I recall correctly that Dogge and Cox fund invests a high percentage in emerging market stocks.

I expect that those stocks just may get hammered this year as investors flee them in search of safety. The bubble just may pop on that fund.

MasterBlaster, great old NES game btw, can I ask what you use for international? If the bubble pops on D&C then a lot of us are in deep doo doo. That's my single largest position as of now followed by Fairholme.
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Re: 24 year old trying to get to millionaire by 35, punch holes in me plan
Old 03-01-2007, 06:42 PM   #56
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Re: 24 year old trying to get to millionaire by 35, punch holes in me plan

Alright AJ, you are talking like a human being now so I will take back my assertion thta you are a troll. You jumped to insults to quickly. Lots of us have managed funds. I have more than your target including over 100K in D&C. I am also moving a a substantial portion over to Vanguard index funds after looking at what I have gotten compared to what would have resulted from an index approach all along. I would probably chase performance with a fair sized chunk of my portfolio if I considered myself an expert on market trends and had a solid theory to back up my speculations -- I don't. If you do, you should pursue your ideas. You will get both good humored push-back and support here. I hope you will stay around long enough to report back on the 5/10/15 year results.

On the general "I'm a wunderkind" front you should understand that you sound like a dick head to almost everyone. $100 K at 24 is a lot of dough (on the other hand my son's GF will make $150 as a first year associate at Skadden, so you are not top tier) but the people who you work for won't suffer such an arrogant attitude for long.
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Re: 24 year old trying to get to millionaire by 35, punch holes in me plan
Old 03-01-2007, 06:49 PM   #57
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Re: 24 year old trying to get to millionaire by 35, punch holes in me plan

AJ:

I just put all of my spare cash in a coffee can out in the garage ! The coffee is imported though !

Oh I'm in a few funds. Lets just say that EAFE index funds are the core of the international component.

The issue with emerging markets is corruption and speculation and markets not what they appear to be (ie. market rigging). Sometimes companies and stocks in emerging markets are run for the enrichment of those other than the stockholders. They have done well recently, but if and when the bubble bursts those emerging market funds will drop like a rock.

So since I am an investor and not a gambler, I only have a relatively small portion in emerging markets.

I don't need to "bet-the-farm" to acheive my objectives

Perhaps you should go back and read my first post in this thread and see if that applies to you !

http://early-retirement.org/forums/i...1926#msg231926
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Re: 24 year old trying to get to millionaire by 35, punch holes in me plan
Old 03-01-2007, 07:02 PM   #58
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Re: 24 year old trying to get to millionaire by 35, punch holes in me plan

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Just a bit surprised here that everyone is so enamored with haystacks here.
Quote:
it just seems that every single person who responded said, this will never work, past performance doesn't secure future, stick with indexes.
This is interesting, what you've noticed: Almost everyone on a forum of people, most of whom have successfully retired early and have amassed a lot of dough, recommends low-cost index funds. Wow, that's really significant! Are you paying attention -- read what you've written.

Many of us were like you at your age. If I could go back in time and whisper advice to my sleeping self when I was your age, I'd say this:

Whispering: Hey this is you from the future. Listen: Don't chase performance -- go with low-cost index funds.
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Re: 24 year old trying to get to millionaire by 35, punch holes in me plan
Old 03-01-2007, 07:24 PM   #59
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Re: 24 year old trying to get to millionaire by 35, punch holes in me plan

AJ- I think you will find most people on this forum don't tip toe around, and will come right out and tell you what they think. Since you are asking for holes in your plan that is just what you want.

You don't have to agree with everyone, but I guarantee you will learn a great deal from the posters here if you listen and keep an open mind. If you disagree, explain your position, and you can be sure someone will explain why they disagree, usually with supporting doc.

Take some time and read The Four Pillars of Investing by William Bernstein, you will learn a few things, and get an understanding of much of the prevailing view on this board.

This is not your typical get rich quick board, long term is not measured in 5 years or 10 years here but more like 20 or 30 years plus. This forum has a lot of experienced investors who have accumulated more than a few dollars. I doubt you will find another forum with a higher quality of discussions (or a lower quality & more entertaining in some cases ).

If you take the time to keep reading here, you will find there is much more here than just index funds also. If you find that you are still happy with your plan go for it, just donít stop learning and reevaluating you views and the rational behind it.

Good luck!
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Re: 24 year old trying to get to millionaire by 35, punch holes in me plan
Old 03-01-2007, 07:39 PM   #60
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Re: 24 year old trying to get to millionaire by 35, punch holes in me plan

Air-J should not have any problem getting to $1 mil by age 35 since he can invest so much every year. If he starts with $65K first year and increases it by 5% every year, he could do it by age 32 based on an annual return of 8% and the assumption that the deposit is at the beginning of the year.

8%
Age Beg balance Add Ending balance
24 0.00 65,000.00 70,200.00
25 70,200.00 68,250.00 149,526.00
26 149,526.00 71,662.50 238,883.58
27 238,883.58 75,245.63 339,259.54
28 339,259.54 79,007.91 451,728.84
29 451,728.84 82,958.30 577,462.12
30 577,462.12 87,106.22 717,733.80
31 717,733.80 91,461.53 873,930.95
32 873,930.95 96,034.60 1,047,562.80
33 1,047,562.80 100,836.33 1,240,271.07
34 1,240,271.07 105,878.15 1,453,841.16
35 1,453,841.16 111,172.06 1,690,214.27
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