25% of SS recipients sorry they took payments early...

[FONT=&quot]When I took early retirement (2012 – age 57),[/FONT][FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]Our present intent is to turn on SS payment at the earliest possible moment. Our thinking is that if we wait, we’re foregoing whatever cash we might receive, and such investment return those payments would earn. Whenever I’ve ran a spreadsheet based on SS “early” or at full retirement, using returns similar to our existing rental investments, early payments “win”.[/FONT]

I suggest you check your spreadsheet or look up spreadsheets others have done for you. 1) Are you really going to invest the SS payments or are you going to spend them? 2) what investment returns are you forecasting, what tax rates?
3) How long do models forecast you to live, if you are going to live into your late 80's or 90's taking SS in your late 60's or at 70 should payout the most.
 
... If, year by year, the money that went to the SS had instead gone into savings bonds and I held those bonds, at my ("early") retirement in 2012 there would have been $406,234.15

Per the SS statement, supposedly five years later at age 62 I could start to receive $1,692 per month. Of course, if the wife & I die before I turn 62, everything in SS goes “poof”.

When I look at the amount taken in SS tax, I see what could have been the 2012 CASH purchase of four decent small rental units… That would have immediately been paying significantly more than $1,692/month, essentially indefinitely, and leaving a valuable inheritance for the kid…

It looks like you expect a $406,000 investment in rental properties to provide a pure profit of "significantly more" than $1,692 x 12 = $20,300 per year.

That's a return of more than 5%. Assuming you figure you can raise rents to keep up with inflation, that's a real return.

I'll agree with your spreadsheet. When I assume I can get a real return of "significantly more" than 5%, my spreadsheet says that taking SS early dominates waiting, regardless of how long we live.

I don't invest in rental units, so those returns aren't available to me.
 
My full retirement age is 66 and I will take it then. Due to WEP it will be small. Right now I work p.t. and make 25K/year so no sense in taking it now at 62. If I quit working before 66 then I may rethink that.
 
My full retirement age is 66 and I will take it then. Due to WEP it will be small. Right now I work p.t. and make 25K/year so no sense in taking it now at 62. If I quit working before 66 then I may rethink that.

It appears that there is a bi-partisan move in Congress to obtain more funds for the retirement of people who work in the public sector and a bill to eliminate WEP may just pass this year. As a matter of facts the congressmen misrepresent the calculation of social security, there is nothing that cuts benefits in 1/2 of social security if you only work half your life in covered social security jobs, social security it is a quick rising pension plan early in calculations that increases slowly after that with additions to the pension calculation, so this will be quite a benefit increase for the public pension crowd. 10 years at inflation indexed 60K per year gets you $953 month benefit while 20 years at inflation indexed 60K gets you $1,410 30 years gets you $1867

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/07/15/social-security-isnt-fair-for-all-heres-how-we-fix-it-commentary.html
 
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It appears that there is a bi-partisan move in Congress to obtain more funds for the retirement of people who work in the public sector and a bill to eliminate WEP may just pass this year. As a matter of facts the congressmen misrepresent the calculation of social security, there is nothing that cuts benefits in 1/2 of social security if you only work half your life in covered social security jobs, social security it is a quick rising pension plan early in calculations that increases slowly after that with additions to the pension calculation, so this will be quite a benefit increase for the public pension crowd. 10 years at inflation indexed 60K per year gets you $953 month benefit while 20 years at inflation indexed 60K gets you $1,410 30 years gets you $1867

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/07/15/social-security-isnt-fair-for-all-heres-how-we-fix-it-commentary.html



I hope you are right. This way it can be a near zero sum game for me and I am fine with that. Obamacare law sacked me for a 300% premium increase since a year ago last January. Now I could get more SS money to eventually get a decent chunk of it back. Provided I live long enough. :)


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break even is about 84 for total dollars from from JUST social security

but overall dollars breaks even at about 90
I'd love to see the assumptions and the math behind this assertion.

But, regardless, many people ask the wrong question: We shouldn't be trying to maximize the number of dollars (esp given that we usually don't know up front how long we will live). We should be trying to maximize utility--to get the best likelihood of greatest happiness. Having a larger inflation-adjusted monthly check for as long as we live can go a long way to offset market risks, etc that may be inherent in the rest of the portfolio, and such a larger monthly can also safely allow greater spending from the portfolio up front. For many, it is another means of diversifying.
 
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60 now, so only 2 more years before the question becomes real.

I may go for somewhere in between. Maybe 65? I dunno. Depends a lot on how the market moves.

+1 I'm the same age and just watching what happens in the next couple years. The election, terrorism, the market all may play a part, but obviously especially the market. Plan for now is to take it at 62 right now, then see what things look like in 3 years to decide what my wife does.
 
it is true that you will get more dollars from social security it self if you wait until 70.

But your net overall financial position will be decreasing during that period from 62-70.

break even is about 84 for total dollars from from JUST social security

but overall dollars breaks even at about 90

depends on age .

it takes 22 -24 years to break even figuring a 6% return on a balanced portfolio being spent down delaying ss with 3% inflation .

by age 90 someone can see a 5% real return from ss which rivals stocks . . michael kitces did the comparison .


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I'd love to see the assumptions and the math behind this assertion.

But, regardless, many people ask the wrong question: We shouldn't be trying to maximize the number of dollars (esp given that we usually don't know up front how long we will live). We should be trying to maximize utility--to get the best likelihood of greatest happiness. Having a larger inflation-adjusted monthly check for as long as we live can go a long way to offset market risks, etc that may be inherent in the rest of the portfolio, and such a larger monthly can also safely allow greater spending from the portfolio up front. For many, it is another means of diversifying.

+1

As long as your assets are sufficient for yourself or SO to last to 95+ regardless if one passes earlier, the equation definitely tips towards samclems response
 
[FONT=&quot]When I took early retirement (2012 – age 57), I went thru my records (packrat that I am) re Social Security (SS). During my total working years the amount that went into SS “on my behalf” was $193,818.88. I did a spreadsheet using the historical interest rates for plain old savings bonds. If, year by year, the money that went to the SS had instead gone into savings bonds and I held those bonds, at my ("early") retirement in 2012 there would have been $406,234.15[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot] [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Per the SS statement, supposedly five years later at age 62 I could start to receive $1,692 per month. Of course, if the wife & I die before I turn 62, everything in SS goes “poof”. [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot] [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]When I look at the amount taken in SS tax, I see what could have been the 2012 CASH purchase of four decent small rental units… That would have immediately been paying significantly more than $1,692/month, essentially indefinitely, and leaving a valuable inheritance for the kid…


Unno- Your profile says you live in Yuma, AZ. A quick bit of Zillow research confirms you could indeed buy four rental units & earn more than $1,692/mo NET, which would be a great investment in my view.

However, as Samclem notes below, that's perhaps not the right question when risk is considered.

First, you could not have known over the 2+ decades you contributed to SS that you would be able to get this return (or any return for that matter) on rental properties. Whereas, you always knew with virtual certainty you would receive a SS check.

Second, you need to factor risk into your income comparison. The risk of receiving an inflation adjusted SS check is virtually ZERO, whereas the risk of rental properties is significantly more than zero. One recent article suggested the rental risk premium is 3.5% but, it seems to be in the 2-5% range most of the time.

So, one way to evaluate your comparison of SS versus rental properties is to use a risk premium in the range above and see if you still think SS is such a bad "investment." Of course, it's not really an investment, it's insurance but, you see what I mean.

Having said all that, if I lived in Yuma & my quick Zillow research is indeed indicative of that real estate market, and I had $400k laying around, I'd seriously consider investing in rental properties.

I'd love to see the assumptions and the math behind this assertion.

But, regardless, many people ask the wrong question: We shouldn't be trying to maximize the number of dollars (esp given that we usually don't know up front how long we will live). We should be trying to maximize utility--to get the best likelihood of greatest happiness. Having a larger inflation-adjusted monthly check for as long as we live can go a long way to offset market risks, etc that may be inherent in the rest of the portfolio, and such a larger monthly can also safely allow greater spending from the portfolio up front. For many, it is another means of diversifying.
 
I'd love to see the assumptions and the math behind this assertion.

But, regardless, many people ask the wrong question: We shouldn't be trying to maximize the number of dollars (esp given that we usually don't know up front how long we will live). We should be trying to maximize utility--to get the best likelihood of greatest happiness. Having a larger inflation-adjusted monthly check for as long as we live can go a long way to offset market risks, etc that may be inherent in the rest of the portfolio, and such a larger monthly can also safely allow greater spending from the portfolio up front. For many, it is another means of diversifying.


+1
To me SS is insurance so the plan is to wait till 70. I see my parents in their 80 s living decently off incomes that are smaller than what my SS at 70 will be. If I blow the portfolio I want to be able to have that livable income.
 
Running man: thanks so much for the link. Getting rid of WEP would be awesome for both my husband and I.
 
Running man: thanks so much for the link. Getting rid of WEP would be awesome for both my husband and I.



It would be for me, also Terry. But I would bet there is a less than 5% chance. This has floated around congress for decades with no action. I suspect it would damage the already ailing trust fund and that alone I would guess (along with history of previous attempts) will prevent it from ever happening. But we can always hope, but not spend it yet. :)


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Mulligan you are raining on my parade:)) Ugh!!
 
Ya, I knew I was screwed on SS long ago...But I was getting all excited about the "spousal benefit"...Hmm, maybe me and the long time GF should get married....Wait, GPO? What the hell is that? Crap that kills that idea. Looks like no marriage plans for me...Wait, hold up....but now if Obamacare keeps flying through the roof, paying for a ring to get that $175 a month spousal health insurance with $200 or so yearly deductible may mean marriage is not permanently off the table yet! :)


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:LOL: :facepalm: Getting married for the first time at age 70 none of that stuff entered my mind. Silly me :dance:. Neither did my previous GF of 29 years allow such considerations.

heh heh heh - managed to ER any how. :flowers:
 
:LOL: :facepalm: Getting married for the first time at age 70 none of that stuff entered my mind. Silly me :dance:. Neither did my previous GF of 29 years allow such considerations.



heh heh heh - managed to ER any how. :flowers:



First time at 70? Wow.. Well I am sure it was 100% the correct choice as you patiently waited. :) My GF and I being divorcees have separated the love from the marriage thing. If there is no financial benefit to exploit from a marriage based contract subject to govt rules we are passing. Who knows in 28 years when I am 70 I might follow you. One never knows....


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It would be for me, also Terry. But I would bet there is a less than 5% chance. This has floated around congress for decades with no action. I suspect it would damage the already ailing trust fund and that alone I would guess (along with history of previous attempts) will prevent it from ever happening. But we can always hope, but not spend it yet. :)


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WEP corrects a quirk in the SS law that unfairly benefits people who have worked at jobs where contributions to SS are not required.

Simply put, SS is designed to give low-income people a better deal than others. It's part of the way we keep older people out of poverty. Otherwise, people who can legally avoid paying into SS during their working life, despite having a good pension (hopefully enhanced by all the money they did not have to pay to SS) would look like low-income people, which they are not.

WEP is simply a way of saying "Look, despite all those zeros in your yearly SS contribution column, we know that you were working and that what would have been SS contributions was available to be used for other retirement investements, so we are not going to treat you the same way we would treat a person who has actually not earned much money in those years."

It is unreasonable to not pay into SS while working, get an enhanced pension or other retirement benefit thanks to being able to invest the what would have been SS contribution money, and then expect to get the better SS deal truly low-income people get, since those exempt from SS contributions are not truly low-income people.

Do the math taking into account the entire retirement compensation picture. Eliminating WEP would be grossly unfair to all of the others who have had to contribute to SS.

The best 'cure' for WEP (and GPO) would be to eliminate the SS exemption for government workers. Then there would be no need for WEP or GPO to correct an unfair situation.
 
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Actually, I agree...But from a more simplistic viewpoint of I knew what I was getting into. If I didnt like it, I should have chosen a different career.
Now some people though have a legitimate beef I suppose. If you split your career in 2 states, with the one state taking SS out and other not then yes you get unfairly hosed a bit. Teaching 15 yrs in 2 separate states, would penalize you.
But nothing would ever be fair... SS for "Viagra trust fund babies", stay at home moms who never have children getting benefits, etc. etc. the list never ends in fairness or unfairness.
But yes, it escapes me totally why mandatory SS contributions were imposed on workers, yet a select group of people were allowed to vote out of it boggles the mind...


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Actually,
But yes, it escapes me totally why mandatory SS contributions were imposed on workers, yet a select group of people were allowed to vote out of it boggles the mind...
/QUOTE]

IIRC, correct me if I am wrong, many of those plans opted out years ago. I wonder how many modern workers would vote to opt-out of SS if they had to vote today? At least the opt-out should be up to the individual - "Opt-out and get xx% more pension every year from the State of Anxiety! Stay in SS and get the base amount of your pension." OTOH, many states are going to hybrid DC/DB plans so maybe this is not as big a problem for the future?

The real losers are people like the pensioners who worked for Detroit. Their pension was cut and they did not participate in SS so they don't have SS as a descent income source to fall back on.

If I worked for a government that opted out of SS and was not running its pension plan well - using reasonable rates of return, making the required contributions, etc. (Illinois, I'm looking at you!) I would be very worried.

To get back on topic: I suspect many people who took SS early probably needed the money desperately, or had no present or future need for SS, or bought into the "They will probably cut or cancel it soon, so I will get mine while I can still can" belief.
 
Yes, I believe it was all done decades ago. Our system had a one time vote over 60 years ago and was never addressed again.


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It would be for me, also Terry. But I would bet there is a less than 5% chance. This has floated around congress for decades with no action. I suspect it would damage the already ailing trust fund and that alone I would guess (along with history of previous attempts) will prevent it from ever happening. But we can always hope, but not spend it yet. :)


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I'm diverting this thread a bit but, it's likely important to many of us. It seems this proposal would actually increase SS Trust Fund revenue because, it's a "rob 11 Peters to pay one Paul" scheme. :nonono:

The Windfall Elimination Provision Repeal: What You Should Know - Social Security Intelligence

See the excerpts below, with my bolding.


You may be thinking that you’ve heard all this talk about Social Security fairness before. You’re right – it’s been discussed for years. But this measure has a really good chance of passing for three reasons.

The bill will save the SSA money – This isn’t the first time that an effort to repeal the WEP has surfaced. There have been many such attempts in years past. None of those ever made it far in the lawmaking process due to the very high cost of a full WEP repeal. However, this bill would not increase the deficit. In fact, the Social Security Administration’s Office of the Chief Actuary found that these changes would actually have a positive financial effect!

A Larger Affected Group

In the past, one of the basic requirements for the WEP penalty was to have not only worked in non-covered employment, but to have qualified for a pension from that work. Under the new formula, that requirement would go away. Moving forward, the only requirement to have the PSF applied would be one year of non-covered earnings. This new requirement will dramatically expand the group that is subject to a Social Security benefit reduction. The Social Security Office of the Chief Actuary said: “Our estimate reflects small benefit reductions from the PSF for a relatively large number of workers who would not be reduced by the WEP.”

This expansion to a larger pool of individuals is one of the main areas that makes this new law cost-neutral. In fact, the actuary’s report states that adding the one year requirement will increase revenue by $2.7 billion for years 2017-2023!

Although many will be happy the new rule is increasing their benefits, many will begin to see a reduction in benefits for the first time.

As currently written, the new rule will be fully effective for those turning 62 in 2017 or later.

According to Dr. Andy Szakmary, a Professor of Finance at Richmond University, there will be 11 losers for every winner under this legislation.

He went on to say.

14 MILLION PEOPLE (according to Goss’ testimony) will become newly subject to the WEP and have their SS benefit reduced, versus 1.25 million people who will receive a higher benefit than under the current formula – so there will be 11 losers for every winner. This is why the bill is much more than revenue neutral – it actually saves SS tons of money. But it does so on the backs of many millions of innocent people who did nothing wrong, in most cases having worked in government or non-profit employment for only a few years, and who cannot now travel back in time and retroactively change their work histories. It would be one thing to pass a bill stating that, from this point forward, if you work in non-covered employment your SS benefit will be 1/35 = 2.86% lower for each year that you do so, but to completely alter the formula, suddenly remove all exemptions and dramatically change the rules for a 61-year-old right before he/she becomes eligible for benefits (as HR 711 does) is infinitely more unfair than sticking with the current system, which has been in place since 1983 and for which current retirees arguably should be prepared. At least President Obama’s proposal, which is similar to HR 711 in its formula, would not be implemented until 2027 and thus would not impact anyone currently close to retirement.”
 
11 losers for every winner is terrible! It would benefit me but I hope it does not pass. If you are not vested for a public pension you are being penalized for nothing. That is horrible.
 
Pardon my ignorance on WEP. It hasn't been an issue for me. However, should I interpret this change to mean that if you have a year, or years from ER, that have zero FICA tax paid that that would factor in more punitively in calculating your SS payment? I assume not, but...


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If you have a year with an employer that does not pay into SS whether you are vested for a pension or not. Really unfair.
 
DW was affected by WEP. Her SS was reduced by about 85% of the amount of her teachers retirement pension. During her school district days (7 years) she did not contribute to SS. You don't pay, you don't get.


Seems fair to me.
 
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