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2B Warned You
Old 03-10-2015, 04:22 PM   #1
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2B Warned You

I made comments in an earlier thread that my belated retirement was going to trigger a market correction. Well, here we are beginning my second week and we've given back all of 2015 gains (really just February's since January wasn't much). I couldn't take advantage of this event since it would completely disrupt the space time continuum (or something like that ). You just thought W2R's "WHEEEE" had power. This correction could go to 20+%.

My first week plus has been pretty uneventful otherwise. It's rained 4.25" which definitely broke any lingering drought people may have thought we were under. The high point was the lunch with aig888, Alan and LOL!.

My neighbor across the street has been laid off in a corporate reshuffle due to a private equity takeover of his company. He's in his mid-fifties and said he had enough money to not look for another job. He doesn't know what he wants to do. I mentioned that I was going to take my kayaks up to a local lake and he said he has been thinking of getting a kayak. I can give him a free trial.

He'll have a chance to see whether he really wants to work. I did say that if he wants to go back he needs to do it quickly because absences are not taken kindly to for management positions. If he's not looking hard within a month, he'll be creating an extra barrier for himself.

I got my COBRA forms in the mail today. I'm glad it's only money.
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Old 03-10-2015, 04:33 PM   #2
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Gee, what did you DO, 2B? What a buying opportunity. I couldn't have done better myself.

Glad to read that your retirement seems to be going really well otherwise. Have fun kayaking! It's pretty nice to awaken and realize that the whole day is free, , even on a rainy day.

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Old 03-10-2015, 04:55 PM   #3
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Just as well you chose that pub for our meet-up which had half price fish and chips for lunch. If the market keeps on going down our next get together may have to be on Town Green and we can bring our own sandwiches to eat and drink from the water fountains there.
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Old 03-10-2015, 05:00 PM   #4
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How about this?

¡EEEEHW
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Old 03-10-2015, 05:14 PM   #5
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Just as well you chose that pub for our meet-up which had half price fish and chips for lunch. If the market keeps on going down our next get together may have to be on Town Green and we can bring our own sandwiches to eat and drink from the water fountains there.
No way. I decided I could relive 2008 and not impact daily life. Europe would see less of me but I can live with that.
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Old 03-10-2015, 05:15 PM   #6
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Hopefully you were in the middle of rolling your 401k to an ira and out of the market.


If this keeps up you're going to have us all looking at the job postings for you.
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Old 03-10-2015, 05:23 PM   #7
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I was hoping you were right. 20% is just about right for getting some more cash into the market. I've been DCA'ing in for the past couple of years, and it's been quite painful. Buying high and higher and higher. Maybe you could do 25%. I don't want it to go farther, since I don't want to make the other members too nervous.

Seriously, though, doesn't it seem a little absurd that the market has been going up for the past few years on a lot of bad news? And now that the news has become good (unemployment down, wages inching up, Fed sort of thinking about maybe ending QE, etc.) the reaction is a big drop? Seems anti-sensical to me. Guess that's why I shouldn't be a DMT.
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Old 03-10-2015, 05:26 PM   #8
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OK here is the code: W2R for UP, 2B for down market predictions.
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Old 03-10-2015, 06:21 PM   #9
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This site only has room for one clairvoyant and that honor belongs to W2R. Anyhow, you have a ways to go before declaring a correction.
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Old 03-10-2015, 06:44 PM   #10
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You think this is a correction . I retired in January 2008 . Beat that !
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Old 03-10-2015, 07:43 PM   #11
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Yeah, hey, I retired in 1999!
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Old 03-10-2015, 09:13 PM   #12
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Wonder what Ziggy has to say about the correction ? Double down ?
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Old 03-11-2015, 05:31 AM   #13
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Seriously, though, doesn't it seem a little absurd that the market has been going up for the past few years on a lot of bad news? And now that the news has become good (unemployment down, wages inching up, Fed sort of thinking about maybe ending QE, etc.) the reaction is a big drop? Seems anti-sensical to me. Guess that's why I shouldn't be a DMT.
The stock market traditionally goes up ahead of the real recovery. It's the old "climbing a wall of worry" routine we always hear about. Personally, I don't think the news has become all that great. The headline unemployment number is down but only because people have exhausted their benefits and aren't counted. The U6 is still knocking on record territory. The % of the population not working is also near all time highs. I suspect the euro drop will keep the fed from raising rates for a few extra months.

I haven't seen where QE has done much for anyone starting with Japan. It's defended with "what might have happened" without it. The euro zone had lower interest rates than the US without QE. When the US QE was ended, rates dropped. There is no rush for companies to invest with the low cost of capital.
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This site only has room for one clairvoyant and that honor belongs to W2R. Anyhow, you have a ways to go before declaring a correction.
I happily defer to her greatness W2R. I have no clairvoyant ambitions. I just have a history of stepping in .......
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Old 03-11-2015, 06:05 AM   #14
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A pull back to the major averages was healthy. SPX and NDX are right on long term support and are oversold. We are set up for a nice bounce. I sold all my put options yesterday and added to GIS, BUD and GPC (cereal, beer and car parts - the staples).
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Old 03-11-2015, 07:50 AM   #15
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How about this?

¡EEEEHW
I think that was one of the catch-phrases from Stephanie the maid in "Newhart"
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Old 03-11-2015, 08:08 AM   #16
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Audrey: what I get out of your posts is the best way to "beat the market" is to be flexible with your spending needs. If you can drop your cost of living below a market correction it doesn't matter. I'd you can't... Your emotions will crush your rationale and comfort.

Of course NO ONE will survive going to 0 so there is no guarantee.

But... I like to focus on what I can control. I can't control the market nearly as much as I can control my spending and lifestyle options.

And yet it's so easy to spend hours on the thing I can't control and ignore the thing I can

Sent from my HTC One_M8 using Early Retirement Forum mobile app
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Old 03-11-2015, 10:43 AM   #17
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Yeah, hey, I retired in 1999!
and Momeg said: You think this is a correction . I retired in January 2008 . Beat that !

OK, I think 1999 or maybe early 2000 wins over my March 2008. AFAIK the worst retirement date in 'recent' history is 1966, bonds didn't help because of inflation.

I used early 2008 declines as a buying opportunity took a couple years for them to payout. I am doing the same now, yesterdays market decline triggered a couple buys, history repeating itself?
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Old 03-11-2015, 12:32 PM   #18
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Oooooh! Scary market movements!

And yet, when I look at the media's 'disaster du jour' in the frame of a typical ER interval to date...

Attachment 21288

M. E. H. Meh...
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Old 03-11-2015, 01:54 PM   #19
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Ummm...

Looking at the above chart, if the next 20 years are going to be like 1980-2000, it's going to be great.

If it's like 2000-2014, ho hum... I would still be OK though, but would not be able to turn my children into instant millionaires when I croak.
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Old 03-11-2015, 01:57 PM   #20
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Ummm...

Looking at the above chart, if the next 20 years are going to be like 1980-2000, it's going to be great.

If it's like 2000-2014, ho hum... I would still be OK though, but would not be able to turn my children into instant millionaires when I croak.
If the next 20 years are like 2000-2014 it'll feel like time is flying by faster than ever...
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