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Old 04-15-2008, 10:24 AM   #21
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Yeah! When is the dollar going to rise, dear?
Versus the Euro? When the ECB starts cutting interest rates. Since there must be a lot of pain among the manufacturing base in Europe, I imagine this will start by the end of the year.
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Old 04-15-2008, 10:45 AM   #22
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Hmm.. maybe, maybe not. The ECB is basically the Germans and I think they are constitutionally resistant to doing that. Also wasn't the recent G7 hugger-mugger all about the state of the dollar, with little sympathy forthcoming.. instead more of a taking-to-the-woodshed?

Quote:
"We are not fools," Nout Wellink, head of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, told Reuters on Sunday. "We do realize there are better moments to introduce substantial increases in capital requirements."

While banks may resist calls to raise regulatory capital requirements, banking regulators "will go further in certain respects whether they like it or not," Wellink said.
"You vill take zis meddsin!"

"la la la la la I can't hear you!"

Quote:
"The 100-day deadline is a mirage which will quietly disappear the closer we get to that date," said Mirko Mikelic, a portfolio manager at Fifth Third Asset Management in Grand Rapids, Michigan.

Mikelic said the Federal Reserve will step up and provide liquidity if necessary for the U.S. system as well as be the backstop for any collapse of any major U.S. financial institution.
ANALYSIS-G7 banking proposals get lukewarm reception | Reuters

Quote:
FRANKFURT (Thomson Financial) - The German government is against any intervention to prop up the US dollar, according to Der Spiegel magazine, citing an internal finance ministry document prepared ahead of the weekend G7 meeting of finance ministers and central bank presidents in Washington....
It said another possible instrument to support the weak dollar is for the European Central Bank to cut euro zone interest rates but that the German government views such a move with scepticism even though it will narrow the interest rate differential between the euro and the dollar.

The paper noted too that a rate cut by the ECB is 'extremely unlikely' right now given the high inflation rate, Der Spiegel said.
XE.com - German govt against intervention to prop up dollar - report - XE Forex News

boh :confused:
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Old 04-15-2008, 10:50 AM   #23
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Hmm.. maybe, maybe not. The ECB is basically the Germans and I think they are constitutionally resistant to doing that.
Actually, it was especially the export-focused German manufacturing base I had in mind when I mentioned suffering manufacturers. A lofty Euro really takes the wind out if their sales.

I'm sure Trichet will be happy you think of him as a German.
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Old 04-15-2008, 11:19 AM   #24
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i read somewhere that the japaneese bubble happened because the yen rose against the dollar, BOJ cut rates in 1987 and the rest was history
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Old 04-15-2008, 11:20 AM   #25
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I just get the impression the Germans throw their weight around quite a bit.. via osmosis of The Economist.

Quote:
Germany's allergy to economic tinkering squelches any discussion of measures the EU might take to correct the defects of a one-size-fits-all monetary policy, says Ms Schwarzer.
Quote:
It was under Mr Schröder that Germany began to subject EU initiatives to cost-benefit tests, which often produced a negative result.
Quote:
Since taking office in May [Sarkozy] has floated various ideas for prying [the euro] loose from the control of the ECB, whose job is to maintain its value.
France and Germany | Disillusion across the Rhine | Economist.com

Quote:
A trip to Frankfurt helps to make sense of the deep divisions that the strong euro has exposed among the 15 European Union members of the single currency. In countries like France, placing economic decision-making in the hands of politicians, rather than unelected bureaucrats, sounds like a defence of democracy. But even among Germans too young to remember the D-mark, any hint of political meddling raises fears of unstable prices that have, in the past, destroyed democracy.
...
On the one hand, Mr Strauss-Kahn said, the ECB had done well in controlling inflation (its mandate, to focus on medium-term price stability, was inherited from the Bundesbank). On the other, he said, the ECB lacked a “political” counterbalance in the form of a “finance minister for Europe” to promote growth.

President Nicolas Sarkozy has been attacking the strong euro for months, saying that the currency should be put “at the service” of growth and jobs. Yet he also insists that he does not question the independence of the ECB. More recently, he has preferred to hint at dark dealing by America and other rivals with weaker currencies, saying that European industry must not be “penalised” out of existence by “monetary dumping”.

The euro's strength was debated at this week's meeting of the “Eurogroup”, the club that brings together euro-area finance ministers with the ECB head, Jean-Claude Trichet, and Joaquín Almunia from the European Commission. France was clearly “hoping for a depreciation of the euro”, comments one minister. But he adds that “what France says outside is a lot stronger than what they say inside.” Still, there are deep differences of opinion. Germany pulled off an export boom last year, despite the strong euro. Other countries whose trade is mostly within the euro area point to the inflation-controlling benefits of a strong currency, when it comes to buying imports and above all oil (which is priced in dollars).
...
Within the Eurogroup, there is irritation at the incoherence of calling for a depreciation of the euro, which risks fuelling inflation, but at the same time worrying about purchasing power. Most charitably, it is suggested that French politicians are trying to woo special interests by denouncing the strong euro. Less charitably, some say there is no real strategy behind the criticism—merely a calculation that talking of political action and bashing central bankers sounds good to French voters.

Such attacks are meaningless in practical terms: the treaties guaranteeing the ECB's independence can be changed only with the unanimous agreement of all 27 EU members (which many, starting with Germany, will never give). In short, if French politicians want to play at being European central bankers, their best hope may be a trip to Frankfurt to play on the Money Museum's machine. Even then, they may not like its stern lessons
Charlemagne | Don't play politics with the euro | Economist.com



also:
Trend Capital : ECB expected to hold key rate, despite inflation threat
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Old 04-15-2008, 11:32 AM   #26
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you'll go crazy reading this nonsense, it's almost word for word what the white house used to say about paul volcker back in the 1980's
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Old 04-15-2008, 11:48 AM   #27
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it's almost word for word what the white house used to say about paul volcker back in the 1980's
meaning?
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Old 04-15-2008, 04:55 PM   #28
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Yeah! When is the dollar going to rise, dear?
Let me answer that one.

It will rise when the government/Fed begins to show some financial responsibility.

Realistic interest rates would be a start.
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Old 04-15-2008, 05:31 PM   #29
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meaning?
all politicians complain that rates are too high
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