Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
4 1/2% return
Old 06-23-2013, 07:29 AM   #1
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Posts: 354
4 1/2% return

What would you recommend if you wanted a low risk 4 1/2% return in your IRA? Starting today.......

Bonds seem shaky as interest rates will climb over the next several yrs.

And looking at the 25 yr S&P 500 chart does not instill confidence.


S&P 500 Index Chart - Yahoo! Finance;



Just thought it would be interesting to see what folks think.
__________________

almost there is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 06-23-2013, 07:33 AM   #2
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 96
A time machine.
__________________

enjoyinglife102 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-23-2013, 07:54 AM   #3
Recycles dryer sheets
timwalsh300's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2009
Posts: 131
You don't get to choose your rate-of-return. All you can do is choose assets that historically demonstrate a level of risk with which you are comfortable, and then take whatever the market gives you. I try to be as agnostic as possible about future returns.

That said, for financial planning purposes (e.g. how much do I need to save?), I think one must ultimately pin down a reasonable number to use for long-term projected returns. So with a 60/40 stock/bond index fund portfolio, I use 3% real. With inflation in the US running around 1.5% today, that works out to 4.5% nominal.

The key point, though, is that I chose a 60/40 portfolio because I think I can handle a 30% crash, not because I think it will return 3% real.

Tim
timwalsh300 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-23-2013, 07:56 AM   #4
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
REWahoo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas Hill Country
Posts: 43,361
Quote:
Originally Posted by almost there View Post
What would you recommend if you wanted a low risk 4 1/2% return in your IRA? Starting today.......
I understand Bernie Madoff has started a new work from home online investment business. He can probably beat your 4.5% target.
__________________
Numbers is hard

Although rare, it is possible to read something on this forum you don't agree with and simply move on with your life

Retired in 2005 at age 58, no pension
REWahoo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-23-2013, 08:22 AM   #5
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Posts: 354
I kwew this would be a good one.........
LOL LOL

"I think I can handle a 30% crash"

I have handled it twice. Well over 30% both times....
almost there is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-23-2013, 12:05 PM   #6
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Northern IL
Posts: 18,879
Quote:
Originally Posted by enjoyinglife102 View Post
A time machine.
Or an attitude adjustment. I liked this comment:
Quote:
Originally Posted by timwalsh300 View Post
You don't get to choose your rate-of-return.
Tim
-ERD50
ERD50 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 06-23-2013, 12:21 PM   #7
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 2,564
utility stocks, telecoms or electric
GrayHare is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 06-23-2013, 01:30 PM   #8
Recycles dryer sheets
padlin00's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2010
Posts: 113
What's an annuity paying these days, might get you close.
padlin00 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-23-2013, 03:05 PM   #9
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
nun's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 4,844
Quote:
Originally Posted by padlin00 View Post
What's an annuity paying these days, might get you close.
Over 4.5%.......BUT most of that will be return of capital. The annuity people invest in the same stuff we do so have to deal with today's low returns. If you buy an annuity today you just lock in those returns, but at least you avoid 30% losses, as long as your insurance company doesn't go broke.
__________________
“So we beat on, boats against the current, borne back ceaselessly into the past.”

Current AA: 75% Equity Funds / 15% Bonds / 5% Stable Value /2% Cash / 3% TIAA Traditional
Retired Mar 2014 at age 52, target WR: 0.0%,
Income from pension and rent
nun is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-23-2013, 06:20 PM   #10
Recycles dryer sheets
timwalsh300's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2009
Posts: 131
A while back I had a conversation with someone who scoffed at mutual funds (and diversification in general) because they generally tracked the broad market, and thus sometimes go down or stay flat for long periods of time. He insisted that he didn't care what the market indices were doing; he just wanted to get a steady X% return on his money (where X was significantly higher than the yield on any fixed-income asset).

My reaction: "Yeah, buddy, me too."

His idea was simply to buy a few utilities or consumer staples, and happily give up the possibility of 30+% annual gains during boom-times in order to take his steady X% without any risk.

That sounds good until you realize how hard it is to pick companies whose valuation won't tank along with everything else, even if they do continue earning a steady X% profit, during the next recession. But I wasn't able to convince him.

Tim
timwalsh300 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-23-2013, 06:23 PM   #11
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 3,956
Do you want 4.5% real or nominal?

If nominal is good enough, 30 year TIPS are priced to yield about 1.4% + CPI. Buy one of them and hope for inflation of 3.1% or better.
Independent is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-23-2013, 07:57 PM   #12
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Ed_The_Gypsy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: the City of Subdued Excitement
Posts: 5,307
There are several individual securities that return over 4.5%--today, but maybe not indefinitely. I have a few in oil and gas that I bought on weakness. I would not bet the farm on them, though (as my only assets). I suspect that their distributions could fall off with increases in interest rates as could their prices as well, so I am watching them. There ain't no free lunch.

I won't say what they are because I don't want someone to buy them on my recommendation. They have risks that I am willing to deal with but could be a nasty surprise for someone else.
__________________
my bumpersticker:
"I am not in a hurry.
I am retired.
And I don't care how big your truck is."
Ed_The_Gypsy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-23-2013, 10:50 PM   #13
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Lakewood90712's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 1,374
Quote:
Originally Posted by padlin00 View Post
What's an annuity paying these days, might get you close.
Fixed anuity would get you about 2.5% taxable for a 10 year when I checked with vangard back in march. Not even close.
Lakewood90712 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-24-2013, 07:28 AM   #14
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Lakewood90712's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 1,374
The 2.5% I quoted was the yeild not including the capitol returned. When I did a quick calc, it was about 25% in addition to the capitol , spread out in 120 payments. So 4.5 % payout quoted by another poster is correct.
Lakewood90712 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-24-2013, 01:50 PM   #15
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Location: Dallas
Posts: 482
Dividend stocks like T, TOT, CTL, VZ, INTC...
Surewhitey is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-24-2013, 07:32 PM   #16
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Ed_The_Gypsy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: the City of Subdued Excitement
Posts: 5,307
Quote:
Originally Posted by almost there View Post
What would you recommend if you wanted a low risk 4 1/2% return in your IRA? Starting today.......

Bonds seem shaky as interest rates will climb over the next several yrs.

And looking at the 25 yr S&P 500 chart does not instill confidence.


S&P 500 Index Chart - Yahoo! Finance;


Just thought it would be interesting to see what folks think.
That chart does not show dividends, only NAV. Beware of drawing an invalid conclusion. (I made the same mistake until not long ago.)

Also consider the value of rebalancing with another, relatively uncorrelated, asset. I will see if I can generate an example.
__________________
my bumpersticker:
"I am not in a hurry.
I am retired.
And I don't care how big your truck is."
Ed_The_Gypsy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-24-2013, 07:36 PM   #17
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Ed_The_Gypsy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: the City of Subdued Excitement
Posts: 5,307
For example, the same chart with Vanguard's Total Bond Market Index Fund, VBMFX (only NAVs, remember; does not show dividends). VBMFX has 6.66% annualized returns since inception in 1986.
S&P 500 Index Chart - Yahoo! Finance
__________________
my bumpersticker:
"I am not in a hurry.
I am retired.
And I don't care how big your truck is."
Ed_The_Gypsy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-24-2013, 09:07 PM   #18
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Ed_The_Gypsy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: the City of Subdued Excitement
Posts: 5,307
This is what they look like together. This is total return including dividends.
VFINX and VBMFX.JPG
Looks a lot better, yes?

Clearly an opportunity to rebalance from time to time.
__________________
my bumpersticker:
"I am not in a hurry.
I am retired.
And I don't care how big your truck is."
Ed_The_Gypsy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-24-2013, 09:34 PM   #19
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Ed_The_Gypsy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: the City of Subdued Excitement
Posts: 5,307
And this is what it looks like rebalanced annually (normalized to 1.00 at the first data point).
VFINX & VBMFX REBAL.JPG
This gave a compounded 8.1% per annum over 23 years. Not bad for a no-brainer.

Of course, the Apocalypse is coming any day now, so you will be better off buying gold and bullets (silver bullets, of course).

DOOM! DOOM! Prepare to meet thy Configurator! (Inside Boeing joke.)

(I am getting better with graphs. Thanks to all for the help.)
__________________
my bumpersticker:
"I am not in a hurry.
I am retired.
And I don't care how big your truck is."
Ed_The_Gypsy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-25-2013, 12:05 PM   #20
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Worthington
Posts: 158
Quote:
Originally Posted by almost there View Post
What would you recommend if you wanted a low risk 4 1/2% return in your IRA? Starting today.......

Bonds seem shaky as interest rates will climb over the next several yrs.

And looking at the 25 yr S&P 500 chart does not instill confidence.


S&P 500 Index Chart - Yahoo! Finance;



Just thought it would be interesting to see what folks think.
I think the 60/40 stocks to bonds split is reasonable...enough bonds in there to help protect against a huge downturn in the stock market, and enough stocks in there to give good gains when stocks are doing well.

I've always done WAY better than 4.5% annual return (over 10% annual return), even with now having 14% bonds in there, so it is hard for me to imagine that 4.5% on average would be hard to get.

Of the 60% stocks, I would make sure that half were of the dividend-giving kind, and then be more aggressive with the other half.

I've said this before, but I am still toying with the idea of having ZERO bonds in my investment money when retired...all stocks. If I did that, I think I would want 2 years of expenses available to me in CASH or some other SUPER safe vehicle like CDs (which are so bad now I'm not sure I'd call them an investment) so that I could use that money if there were a bad stock downturn...when the stocks recovered, I could then slowly replenish the cash fund. Haven't decided which way to go just yet.
__________________

LeavingOhio is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 11:59 AM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2018, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.