Basically, I'm thinking that capital gain harvesting (CGH) at 0% if possible is priority number one prior to roth conversion.
The ability to CGH is limited by existing income (pension, dividends, filing status)
If a person fails to CGH they have less opportunity once SS starts, and once RMD's start, they will pay 15% on capital gains, assuming a large IRA/401K savings.
Comments ?
I'm seeing an edge for Roth conversions, but it's not very big and I suppose is susceptible to the assumptions one makes. I used as an example a person who will be $10,000 below the top of the 15% tax bracket at the end of the year and in order to fill up the tax bracket has a choice between converting $10,000 tax deferred to a Roth and realizing $10,000 in LTCG from a $20,000 taxable investment with a $10,000 cost basis. To pay taxes, I assumed $1,500 in a money market account, which either is used to pay taxes or is added to the taxable account if no taxes are due. He wants to know which choice will give him more after tax money ten years from now, assuming 5.4% growth no matter where the money is located, 15% tax now on Roth conversions, 0% now on LTCG, 25% in ten years on withdrawals from the tax deferred account, and 15% in ten years on LTCG.
Case 1: Leave the tax deferred money alone and realize $10,000 LTCG. No federal taxes due, so the taxable account starts with $21,500 and a $21,500 cost basis. In ten years, the tax deferred account will have grown to $36,378.48. If the cost basis hasn't changed, he will owe $2,231.77 LTCG tax and be left with $34,146.71 from the taxable account. The tax deferred account has grown to $16,920.22 and provides an additional $12,690.17 after paying 25% in taxes. The total is $34,146.71 + $12,690.17 = $46,836.88.
Case 2: Convert $10,000 tax deferred to a Roth IRA, leaving all of the capital gain unrealized. The taxable account starts with a $20,000 balance and a $10,000 cost basis. In ten years the Roth will have grown to $16,920.22 and can be withdrawn tax free. The taxable account has grown to $33,840.45. If the cost basis hasn't changed, it will generate LTCG taxes of $3576.07, leaving $30,264.38. The total is $16,920.22 + $30,264.38 = $47,184.60. This is $347.72 more than the after tax value of Case 1.
If find this result counterintuitive, but can't find anything wrong with the math. Perhaps someone else will weigh in with another perspective.