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Old 02-23-2019, 06:29 AM   #61
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Originally Posted by Dtail View Post
Bolded - Flexible Retirement Planner and the Fidelity calculator are 2 examples of Monte Carlo simulations.
One more Monte Carlo with good user interface: T Rowe Price Retirement Income Calculator
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Old 02-23-2019, 08:17 AM   #62
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Originally Posted by pb4uski View Post
You need to look at your ultimate withdrawal rate, after SS and any pensions have started. Many of us have relatively high WR before SS... often more than 4%... but our projected WR after SS is going is much lower.

You can get a reasonable estimate by reducing you nest egg by your annual SS time the number of years between ER and when SS starts. Then take your spending less SS and divide the result by the former.... so:

(spending - SS)/(nestegg - (SS * ER years without SS))


Thank you added calculation to spread sheet [emoji41]
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Old 02-23-2019, 08:56 AM   #63
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Originally Posted by Clone View Post
I had a few work associates retire in 1999: "Anybody can make 15% in the stock market!"


We have not seen any serious inflation in a long time also. Rampant inflation is the tiger hiding in the bushes that I am concerned about.

15% in the stock market?!?!?!
Alas, retiring early or otherwise does not turn a fool into a wise man or woman.

+1 on inflation and a ragging Bear market. I haven't seen anything lately like the 70's Bear which tore chunk after bloody chunk out of peoples assets, and the 80's inflationary interest rates with its 12%+ mortgages.
And, I hope they truly were once-in-a-lifetime events.

FWIW, last years correction was not a Bear market. More like an enraged bunny rabbit.
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Old 02-23-2019, 09:11 AM   #64
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FWIW, last years correction was not a Bear market. More like an enraged bunny rabbit.
Beware of the enraged bunny!

https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x31kgep
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Old 03-09-2019, 08:19 AM   #65
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Food for thought, I am a big fan of using flexible spending adjustments. I look at fixed % withdrawals as a planning tool, but in practice I have some leeway and use it routinely, and I think most folks do too. Here's some info on converting fixed withdrawal budgets into flexible responses.

https://alphaarchitect.com/2019/03/0...nancial-goals/
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