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516 day into it and this is worse then the crash of '29
Old 03-07-2009, 06:16 AM   #1
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516 day into it and this is worse then the crash of '29

I was watching Kudlow last evening and one his guests was Don Luskin who reported an attention grabbing statistic. That is we are now 516 days after the high was reached on the DOW and we are down about 55% vs only 46% at the same point in time following the market peak in 1929.

Hopefully this fall will stop sooner and not go as far as the 89 or 90% drop the Dow took after the crash of '29, BUT, at this point in time we are in unchartered territory and FireCalc does not have a more worse case scenario than the Great Depression thus making for a potential it's probabilities of success or failure much less reliable. YIKES!
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Old 03-07-2009, 07:03 AM   #2
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Here's Donald Lufkin's article on Smartmoney, saying much the same:

The Beginning of the End for Investing? at SmartMoney.com

I have always liked Lufkin's columns, though during the market highs in 2007 some who didn't like them thought he was overly optimistic.
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Old 03-07-2009, 07:09 AM   #3
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Originally Posted by Want2retire View Post
I have always liked Lufkin's columns, though during the market highs in 2007 some who didn't like them thought he was overly optimistic.
So...perhaps he's a bi-polar market prognosticator? Things are either unbelievably good or catastrophically bad?
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Old 03-07-2009, 07:17 AM   #4
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So...perhaps he's a bi-polar market prognosticator? Things are either unbelievably good or catastrophically bad?
Nah - - those here who thought he was overly optimistic agreed that he was biased because it is to his financial advantage to sell stocks.

His views on the market have changed compared with his views when the Dow was at market highs way back when, but the same is true for many investors. He seems to come up with a more original take on things than some prognosticators. I think the guy writes interesting columns that really make me think. But then, I know so little about investing that it doesn't take much to do that.
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Old 03-07-2009, 07:25 AM   #5
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Actually I like the title of his article, "The Beginning of the End for Investing?". Very similar to "The Death of Equities" Forbes magazine cover which many think marked the bottom of another well-known rough patch in market history.
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Old 03-07-2009, 07:47 AM   #6
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BTW, it's Luskin, not Lufkin.
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Old 03-07-2009, 07:58 AM   #7
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Actually I like the title of his article, "The Beginning of the End for Investing?". Very similar to "The Death of Equities" Forbes magazine cover which many think marked the bottom of another well-known rough patch in market history.
Hopefully a good sign. Dennis Gartman was also on Kudlow's show. He has been negative but is starting to buy a few stocks. Copied the below from CNBC's website. He said these are companies you can buy and just put away and forget about for several years.(That's what I'm gonna have to do with what I already own) But hopefully more are beginning to think this way. BTW, I don't watch much CNBC anymore.....but I do catch Kudlow's show on Friday. For a weekly recap.

Go Long, America! - Rapid Recap - CNBC.com

“It’s time to become bullish,” says Gartman. “Buying stocks these days is almost like shopping at a five and dime." In other words, they're real bargains out there. "This week I started buying stocks."
Here’s a list of Gartman's stock picks.
- Dow Chemical [DOW 7.11 0.64 (+9.89%) ]
- Alcoa [AA 5.22 -0.04 (-0.76%) ]
- Chesapeake Energy [CHK 14.06 -0.40 (-2.77%) ]
- Family Dollar [FDO 30.36 -0.30 (-0.98%) ]
- Bunge [BE 0.0499 -1.0201 (-95.34%) ]
- Suncor Energy [SU 21.34 0.95 (+4.66%) ]
Why these companies? “Because they're the maker of real things," says Gartman. Things that if you dropped on your foot they would hurt. It’s time to stand up and say I want to own wonderful companies that have been around for years and pay dividends,” he says. "And most of these stocks have stopped making new lows."
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Old 03-07-2009, 10:17 AM   #8
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the Great Depression only became Great after the fact. before 1929 the 1873 crash was known as the Great Depression and it was worse than 1929 - 1952
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Old 03-07-2009, 10:26 AM   #9
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Originally Posted by Want2retire View Post
Here's Donald Lufkin's article on Smartmoney, saying much the same:

The Beginning of the End for Investing? at SmartMoney.com

I have always liked Lufkin's columns, though during the market highs in 2007 some who didn't like them thought he was overly optimistic.
Luskin October 2007 (the week of the market top) - there is going to be no recession, everything is going to be great.........................

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Old 03-08-2009, 05:22 AM   #10
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Personally, I have trouble believing anyone who wears a suit and tie. Too much a child of the 60's, I guess.
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Old 03-08-2009, 11:06 AM   #11
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BTW, it's Luskin, not Lufkin.
Oops! I *always* do that. Sorry. Guess it's due to living in Texas for 13 years.
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Old 03-08-2009, 11:12 AM   #12
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Sander06 i guess you never paid $5 a hit for inert typing paper at a Grateful Dead concert Problem; crooks dress in all sizes. More money is stolen at pen point (and usually, suit & ties present) than at gun point.
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Old 03-08-2009, 01:09 PM   #13
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Sander06 i guess you never paid $5 a hit for inert typing paper at a Grateful Dead concert Problem; crooks dress in all sizes. More money is stolen at pen point (and usually, suit & ties present) than at gun point.
Ah, yes. No Grateful Dead, but I have smoked oregano when I was a newbie!
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