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Re: 6% + SWR's
Old 06-03-2006, 01:44 PM   #41
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Re: 6% + SWR's

The idea that the world may end or nearly so, so there is no reason to plan with the information one has, to me seems odd and misplaced. The same argument could have been made in 1920(Boom), 1930(Depression), 1940(War), 1970(Stagflation), 1990(Clinton, kidding) etc. The world did not end and those that planned probably made out ok. Some that did not plan sailed thru ok and others slowly got buried by inflation, low return CD's or volutility.

I do not know what the next 10, 20 or 50 years will look like in terms of returns. If they look like the great depression and 1970's then I'll be OK because my model survives that plus. If it is worse, then I'll be in trouble, like 300MM other people (minus a couple from this board and the trumps ).

On the SWR, I am sure that 98% (~high number) of retirees do not have a clue what a SWR is or how one is derived, and they do not give a rat's axx. Along 2B's thought; My mom is a decent example. She (&65) and my FIL live in a ~1MM house/farm. Not counting the land, Her WD's are about 5k+SS, his are similar+SS. Her WD% is 1.6%, his is similar. They could not care less about WD rates. I've told her (and him), they are not spending enough, or in other words, they have some flexibility to spend more if they would like. Don't care, don't want. Neither have a clue the amount they should be spending but are happy with want they are spending.

Hopefully by planning for the worst we've seen in 75 years I'll weather the next 50 or so if I make that. Me being 4 years from the age my father passed and understanding my SWR better might allow me to not work till I'm dead. Or it might allow me to change pace quicker than I otherwise would. In fact, that is my plan. Now understanding my SWR better, I putting the wheels in motion to have a soft landing into my ER in a couple of years.



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Re: 6% + SWR's
Old 06-03-2006, 02:06 PM   #42
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Join Date: Apr 2006
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Re: 6% + SWR's

they are not spending enough ...but are happy
then they don't have a problem! clueless or otherwise. on the other hand, had they the world best swr model, and were spending the "right amount" but were not happy (with that level of spending), or were quickly running-out of funds, then they'd have a problem.

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