67 % Chance Of A Crash

[marko]

Quote:

Originally Posted by RenoJay The average bull market lasts around 4 years and average bear market (20% drop from peak to trough) lasts around 18 months. Regarding "time to get back to break even", I'm not sure.

So, I'd only have 18 months to scoop up bargains that would carry me the next four years?

[David1961]

Quote:

Originally Posted by RenoJay The average bull market lasts around 4 years and average bear market (20% drop from peak to trough) lasts around 18 months. Regarding "time to get back to break even", I'm not sure.

I think for the great depression, you did not break even until the late 1940s or early 1950s.

[teejayevans]

Quote:

Originally Posted by David1961 I think for the great depression, you did not break even until the late 1940s or early 1950s.

Actually it was 1936.

To get to 1950s you have to not include:
Deflation that occurred
Dividends
Only consider the Dow stocks.

Not to mention they removed IBM, and added them back in 1979...talk about selling low and buying high!

[David1961]

Thanks for the clarification. Did not know deflation had that much effect.

Quote:

Originally Posted by David1961 I think for the great depression, you would not have broken even until the late 1940s or early 1950s.

Quote:

Originally Posted by teejayevans Actually it was 1936. To get to 1950s you have to not include: Deflation that occurred Dividends Only consider the Dow stocks. Not to mention they removed IBM, and added them back in 1979...talk about selling low and buying high!

[NW-Bound]

Stock dividends of the S&P is less than 2% now, and that is because of the high P/E. The dividends used to be much higher, and more than 5% in many years after the Great Depression. More recently, the average dividend yield between 1970 and 1990 was 4.03%.