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67 % Chance Of A Crash
Old 09-25-2017, 05:16 PM   #1
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67 % Chance Of A Crash

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/goldm...131110712.html

Dont these people know that this kind of headline makes me uncomfortable? I know all the stuff about "well if you cant handle a crash you have the wrong Asset Allocation."

I think I can handle it, but it doesn't make me happy. I learned in 1987 selling off was a bad idea. I learned in 2000 individual stock picking was not my strong suit. I learned in 2007-2009, not to look at the mail, and even the word money made me greener than a new dollar bill.

Now they are throwing around the terms crash, plummet, & nosedive. If and when it happens , im going to only look at the threads that have titles like "pictures of my dog & me in a cardboard box, living in my RV with no money for gas to go anywhere, burning my old statements to keep warm, etc. You know the uplifting ones.

Anyone else notice the increase of Doom and Gloom articles?
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67 % Chance Of A Crash
Old 09-25-2017, 05:24 PM   #2
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67 % Chance Of A Crash

I consider that a good sign...we are overdue for a correction, but corrections are not crashes.
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Old 09-25-2017, 05:34 PM   #3
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What amazes me is there is a 33% chance of not a crash. There is a 33% chance we have reached a permanently high plateau.
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Old 09-25-2017, 05:43 PM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Blue Collar Guy View Post
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/goldm...131110712.html

Dont these people know that this kind of headline makes me uncomfortable? I know all the stuff about "well if you cant handle a crash you have the wrong Asset Allocation."

I think I can handle it, but it doesn't make me happy. I learned in 1987 selling off was a bad idea. I learned in 2000 individual stock picking was not my strong suit. I learned in 2007-2009, not to look at the mail, and even the word money made me greener than a new dollar bill.

Now they are throwing around the terms crash, plummet, & nosedive. If and when it happens , im going to only look at the threads that have titles like "pictures of my dog & me in a cardboard box, living in my RV with no money for gas to go anywhere, burning my old statements to keep warm, etc. You know the uplifting ones.

Anyone else notice the increase of Doom and Gloom articles?
Actually, I consider it a good sign when there are plenty of Doom and Gloom articles. I think the time to be really concerned is when everything looks rosy and all the articles tell you that the only way is UP!UP!UP! BUY! BUY! BUY! That really scares me
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Old 09-25-2017, 05:46 PM   #5
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Well, if we just fully, completely, implicitly accept that markets are going to go up and down, and that is the way of the world, then we shouldn't get too excited at prolonged bull markets or too fearful of the next crash.

OK, that's NOT human nature. But we shouldn't.
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Old 09-25-2017, 05:53 PM   #6
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There is a 100% chance that the world will come to an end. I just don't know when.
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Old 09-25-2017, 06:16 PM   #7
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Click-bait BS.
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Old 09-25-2017, 06:24 PM   #8
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Click-bait BS.
+1

I got tricked into going to Market Watch today to chase a piece of financial porn referred to elsewhere. Whether you want the market to crash or soar, you can find a couple of articles supporting that view on MW!
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Old 09-25-2017, 06:32 PM   #9
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Originally Posted by Blue Collar Guy View Post
...I think I can handle it, but it doesn't make me happy. I learned in 1987 selling off was a bad idea. I learned in 2000 individual stock picking was not my strong suit. I learned in 2007-2009, not to look at the mail, and even the word money made me greener than a new dollar bill.

Now they are throwing around the terms crash, plummet, & nosedive. If and when it happens , im going to only look at the threads that have titles like "pictures of my dog & me in a cardboard box, living in my RV with no money for gas to go anywhere, burning my old statements to keep warm, etc. You know the uplifting ones...
Oh come on BCG! Are you not the guy who has nice, nice pension that he can live on, and the stash is just money for the pleasure of counting it?

How 'bout me, a guy who has no pension, and still has 1 year to even claim early SS? Yeah, how about me?

And I always look how my stash is doing, through thick and thin, during the 2003 market crash as well as the Great Recession of 2008-2009. Every day. Never fail.

Perversely, I got a thrill out of it. Look at how cheap those stocks get! Wow, who would have thunk some stocks that were at $100 now went for $10? And they didn't even have anything to do with the financial sector. Fun times!
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Old 09-25-2017, 06:49 PM   #10
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Similar story of doom and gloom in Dec 2015, complete with 6 charts to prove it.
These 6 compelling charts make the case for a stock market correction in 2016

And another tale of woe in 2014
Is a stock market correction overdue? - The Tell - MarketWatch

And another similar story of eminent doom in 2013.
Stocks 'need to be corrected'

And these aren't isolated stories... I suppose, say it often enough and you'll eventually you'll be right and then ignore how many times you were wrong.
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Old 09-25-2017, 07:44 PM   #11
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There is a 100% chance that the world will come to an end. I just don't know when.

4 to 6 billion years...

Close enough for you?
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Old 09-25-2017, 07:56 PM   #12
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Gotta love that Yahoo. I'm still waiting for the explanation of why the world didn't end on Saturday.
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Old 09-25-2017, 07:59 PM   #13
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So if it does crash how long are you prepared to wait till it comes back to the day it crashed. Would 5 years be to long of a guess for it to rebound back? I have not researched other crashes to see in years till you got back what you lost.
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Old 09-25-2017, 08:17 PM   #14
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My goodness. A 5% correction is nothing.
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Old 09-25-2017, 08:20 PM   #15
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So if it does crash how long are you prepared to wait till it comes back to the day it crashed. Would 5 years be to long of a guess for it to rebound back? I have not researched other crashes to see in years till you got back what you lost.


The average bull market lasts around 4 years and average bear market (20% drop from peak to trough) lasts around 18 months. Regarding "time to get back to break even", I'm not sure.
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Old 09-25-2017, 08:22 PM   #16
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With a 55% margin of error. Real statistics don't ever stop with one number.
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Old 09-25-2017, 08:25 PM   #17
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OMG, yes sell everything!

Buy gold, diamonds, US dollars and Euros equally and keep everything in the mattress.
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Old 09-25-2017, 09:24 PM   #18
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87% of the time a wild guess will sound better if it has an actual number attached to it. Picking any number will do, try it, it's fun, and can increase your profits 68% if done right.
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Old 09-25-2017, 09:38 PM   #19
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I dunno, 81% of the time these threads have been at least 44% correct at predicting market swings of 1% to 15% (in those years which have a 73% at having significant volatility).

I am kind of convinced of something now. Well, 52% convinced.
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Old 09-25-2017, 10:06 PM   #20
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Quote:
Originally Posted by teejayevans View Post
I consider that a good sign...we are overdue for a correction, but corrections are not crashes.
OK thats positive. I can live with that.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Fermion View Post
What amazes me is there is a 33% chance of not a crash. There is a 33% chance we have reached a permanently high plateau.
This is the kind of positive enery I like.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ejman View Post
Actually, I consider it a good sign when there are plenty of Doom and Gloom articles. I think the time to be really concerned is when everything looks rosy and all the articles tell you that the only way is UP!UP!UP! BUY! BUY! BUY! That really scares me
OK this also is more uplifting
Quote:
Originally Posted by W2R View Post
Well, if we just fully, completely, implicitly accept that markets are going to go up and down, and that is the way of the world, then we shouldn't get too excited at prolonged bull markets or too fearful of the next crash.

OK, that's NOT human nature. But we shouldn't.
Lol, I always need an excuse to become excited.
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