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Old 06-16-2012, 07:01 AM   #21
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Originally Posted by wishin&hopin View Post
I found the chapter on mortality rates most interesting, since there is so much discussion nowadays of longer lifespans and the impact on Social Security and retirement planning in general. The assumption always is that many of us are headed to 100 and beyond and need to plan accordingly. I think it's wishful thinking. As a table in the book indicates, if you're 55 now, your chances of making it to 85 are 47%, to 90 about 27%, to 95 about 11%, and to 100 about 2%.


I found this oddly reassuring.
Very interesting topic. Appreciate the links. Playing around with Firecalc and the age variable, along with taking Lipitor and not smoking, has led me to believe my wife and I need to keep cyanide tablets handy in the event of living past 90! We have even had some darkly comedic conversations about what the code phrase will be. It started with "the water is like glass", but then we thought hey sometimes we use that phrase in everyday conversation. So we eventually decided on "the kitty is empty".
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Old 06-17-2012, 11:30 AM   #22
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Very interesting presentation. This guy Milevsky is doing some pretty good stuff I think. I also think he is a big advocate of pensionizing a good chunk of your nest egg to maximize utility and reduce longevity risk. He teaches at York U in Toronto.
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Old 06-18-2012, 04:20 AM   #23
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Absolutely true, Meadbh.

Thank you for your service.
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It's interesting that the greatest impact of the advances of the 20th century was on the life expectancy at birth. Many people who formerly would have died as children are surviving, and if they make it to the 60 year old cohort, then their life expectancy going forward will be a little bit more than it would have been in the past.....but not much!

The long term return on investment is why I became a baby doctor.
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Old 06-18-2012, 08:29 PM   #24
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For an interesting take on what the longevity of our and future generations might be, you could read Ray Kurzweil's books Transcend and Singularity. Both books deal with the rate that advances are being made in medicine and Artificial Intelligence and how these advances might greatly extend the lifespans of people now living. Interesting reading even if you don't buy into the "science".



Hi:
Have read those books by kurzweil and continue to follow with great interest.
Might mention that Alzheimer's will like be preventable within 10 years so age 100plus - in good health- is quite likely in the cards, IMO.
Cheers
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Old 06-18-2012, 08:30 PM   #25
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Originally Posted by Danmar
Very interesting presentation. This guy Milevsky is doing some pretty good stuff I think. I also think he is a big advocate of pensionizing a good chunk of your nest egg to maximize utility and reduce longevity risk. He teaches at York U in Toronto.


I am big fan of Milevsky. "pens ionize Your Nestegg" is highly recommended retirement income strategy book.
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Old 06-18-2012, 08:33 PM   #26
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Originally Posted by Gearhead Jim
"Past performance is no guarantee of future results."

That's also true of longevity tables. If major advances in cancer and cardio treatment come into play, the average longevity could take a big leap upward.

Agreed. I think we should plan on it. What would living actively and in decent health to age 120 mean to us now..re planning?
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Old 06-18-2012, 10:05 PM   #27
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Agreed. I think we should plan on it. What would living actively and in decent health to age 120 mean to us now..re planning?
Max out SS and use SPIA's and hope they don't get adjusted later.

Spending probably won't decrease with age if you are able to stay active.

Make sure to keep the portfolio expanding to match inflation just in case 120 is breached as well.
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Old 06-20-2012, 08:51 PM   #28
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Max out SS and use SPIA's and hope they don't get adjusted later.

Spending probably won't decrease with age if you are able to stay active.

Make sure to keep the portfolio expanding to match inflation just in case 120 is breached as well.

Agreed, those are 2 good moves. But longevity would further strain SS (not to mention healthcare), and longer to live means higher inflation risk re SPIA.
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