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Re: 80+ oil is a lock this week.
Old 08-10-2006, 04:11 PM   #41
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Re: 80+ oil is a lock this week.

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80+ oil is a lock this week
the week has only one more day to go ... still "a lock"?
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Re: 80+ oil is a lock this week.
Old 08-10-2006, 06:23 PM   #42
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Re: 80+ oil is a lock this week.

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Originally Posted by eridanus
Yes, on the Nymex. I sold yesterday for a quick gain.

I'd like to get a long term commodity contract but the volume is nothing for 1+ years out. What mutual funds do you use?
I am in Fidelity's Select Energy Fund - FSENX - It has given me around 20% return per year over the last five years. It is not as volatile as commodities and I still get some exposure to the energy stocks.

It's a comfort level thing for me. I had a Series 3 commodites license, and worked for a brokerage for a few years. This was back when I was in my twenties. The experience scared me away from commodities, permanently! Of course if I was a farmer or end user I would use the markets as a hedge, but the speculators seem to get killed in the long run. Be careful!
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Re: 80+ oil is a lock this week.
Old 08-10-2006, 07:44 PM   #43
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Re: 80+ oil is a lock this week.

Maybe not quite as much disruption as initially reported...

BP may keep half of Prudhoe Bay open

PRUDHOE BAY, Alaska - BP PLC officials said Thursday they might be able to keep one side of the nation's largest oil field open, just days after BP said it was closing the entire field as a precaution because of leaks and severe corrosion.

BP officials said they may be able to keep the western side of the field open because the company doesn't want to shut down the pipeline entirely.

A final decision was expected this weekend.

About 140,000 gallons of oil were still flowing out of Prudhoe Bay as of late Thursday, said Craig Wiggs, a performance unit leader for BP.

If the western side kept flowing, that would mean the company would be able to maintain the 140,000-barrel capacity and possibly ramp up to 185,000 barrels while work continues on the eastern side.


http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060811/.../prudhoe_bay_2
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Re: 80+ oil is a lock this week.
Old 08-10-2006, 07:54 PM   #44
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Re: 80+ oil is a lock this week.

Lock is broken, terror.

Planes are not flying, or what is flying is drastically reduced = reduced usage, and guess what crude is headed down, probably 72 before we head back toward 100 forget 80 cause the Iranian mess is next up.
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Re: 80+ oil is a lock this week.
Old 08-10-2006, 07:58 PM   #45
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Re: 80+ oil is a lock this week.

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Lock is broken, terror
was down in overnight trading before the terrorist roundup
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Re: 80+ oil is a lock this week.
Old 08-10-2006, 10:03 PM   #46
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Re: 80+ oil is a lock this week.

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Originally Posted by Cut-Throat
Also, remember that the Alaska Pipeline supllies less than 3% of* U.S. Oil use.
I don't think so...
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Re: 80+ oil is a lock this week.
Old 08-10-2006, 11:23 PM   #47
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Re: 80+ oil is a lock this week.

I believe Cut-Throat's figure is correct. It was initially reported that the shutdown would take off 400,000 bpd. US usage is about 20,000000 bpd so roughly 2%.

The 8% figure that was part of the original announcement referred to 8% of US production. The arithmetic balances- US use is about 4 times our production. (Unfortunately)

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Re: 80+ oil is a lock this week.
Old 08-11-2006, 09:07 AM   #48
 
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Re: 80+ oil is a lock this week.

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Originally Posted by Brat
I don't think so...
Well, I read an article in paper about 3 days ago, that outlined exactly that!

The article went on to describe that there are millions of barrel of oil every day that are not showing up anywhere! - They said that there is an extreme amount of hoarding of oil going on currently (unprecendented) - in anticipation of higher prices down the road. Or to create higher prices! - Which ever way you want to look at it!
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Re: 80+ oil is a lock this week.
Old 08-11-2006, 02:11 PM   #49
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Re: 80+ oil is a lock this week.

Quote:
Originally Posted by HaHa
I believe Cut-Throat's figure is correct. It was initially reported that the shutdown would take off 400,000 bpd. US usage is about 20,000000 bpd so roughly 2%.

The 8% figure that was part of the original announcement referred to 8% of US production. The arithmetic balances- US use is about 4 times our production. (Unfortunately)
That is about right. Also looks like BP will be able to keep the Western Area in operation thereby shutting in only about 215,000 bpd and alleviating the situation a bit more. There is a lot of inventory at individual refineries, plus many spot cargos floating around the seas looking for the optimum buyer. It is, in fact, these spot cargoes primarily from Saudi that much of the oil traders speculative off of.

Oil trading is a very complex business and major companies have highly sophisticated trading rooms set up to deal with this. Virtually every crude produced has slightly different qualities and this has to be taken into account for refinery purposes. Each refinery has a sophiticated model they use to optimize the crude slate they buy. They are not any less sophisticated than financial markets.
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Re: 80+ oil is a lock this week.
Old 08-12-2006, 07:28 AM   #50
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Re: 80+ oil is a lock this week.

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Originally Posted by newguy888
Lock is broken, terror.

Planes are not flying, or what is flying is drastically reduced = reduced usage, and guess what crude is headed down, probably 72 before we head back toward 100 forget 80 cause the Iranian mess is next up.
Well the $80 lock didn't work out this week and I doubt it will next week either, and I sure don't see anything near $100.* To cause that we would need a Katrina, yet another war, perhaps a dirty/bio bomb in the backyard---possible, but I'm not ready to encapsulate the house just yet.* In fact, I wouldn't buy any additional oil stocks right now(for long term) , but I'm keeping the ones I have.
Still looking for a nice drop in oil to the $60 sometime in the fall or at the latest by the end of Feb 2007.* I fully expect to fill up the beast with sub two dollar petro before St Jpatricks Day 2007.
With all that said, I still call that expensive oil and don't look for anything below 50 for years if ever unless you* are talking about the temperature in International Falls.
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Re: 80+ oil is a lock this week.
Old 08-12-2006, 09:57 AM   #51
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Re: 80+ oil is a lock this week.

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Originally Posted by JPatrick
Still looking for a nice drop in oil to the $60 sometime in the fall or at the latest by the end of Feb 2007.* I fully expect to fill up the beast with sub two dollar petro before St Jpatricks Day 2007.
With all that said, I still call that expensive oil and don't look for anything below 50 for years if ever unless you* are talking about the temperature in International Falls.
I wouldn't expect sub 2$ gasoline anytime soon. The oil sands in Canada are expensive to refine. Sub 2$ gasoline won't support it. Without it we are looking like we are at or close to peak oil.

The only case I can see for sub $60/barrel oil is if the electric cars coming out in 2008 take off really fast. In that case you could even see $50/barrel if demand dropped enough (no sooner than 2012-2015 at the very soonest).
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Re: 80+ oil is a lock this week.
Old 08-12-2006, 01:50 PM   #52
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Re: 80+ oil is a lock this week.

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$80 lock didn't work out this week
this is a good illustration of just how unpredictable markets are!* last sunday (when the "lock" was "announced") there was every reason to expect considerable increases in price (middle-east, weather, etc in addition to the pipeline problem) ... but here we are!
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Re: 80+ oil is a lock this week.
Old 08-12-2006, 02:26 PM   #53
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Re: 80+ oil is a lock this week.

Hey I am an almost early retired GYM TEACHER! What do I know?

Nothing!?

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