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A bubble brewing
Old 10-18-2018, 10:31 PM   #1
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A bubble brewing

I haven't seen where this has been posted. I don't have a lot of comment on the article but that I beleive it will happen. I wish I wouldn't read these prediction article. LOL
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/mark...Eqb?ocid=edgsp

Mod edit - a snippet from the linked article
Quote:
The U.S. household wealth boom since the Great Recession is a sham, a farce and a gigantic lie that is tricking everyone into believing that happy days are here again even though the engines that are driving it are bubbles that are going to burst and cause a crisis that will be even worse than the 2008 crash,Ē
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Old 10-19-2018, 12:15 AM   #2
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Well , down at the Yacht Club, membership roister is full with a waiting list for the first time in about 20 years. Given that , I see lot's of new high end cars, and very few new boats, so even among those loaded with $$$$$, empirical evidence is mixed for all but the so called 1 % IMO.

Not much you can do. Sandbag around your investment portfolio ? , and give up potential gains like me ? Comes down to your real risk tolerance.
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Old 10-19-2018, 12:52 AM   #3
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The article has an interesting chart showing the household net worth at an all-time high of 5x the GDP.

No wonder people feel the need to "blow the dough" all over the place. They are just trying to bring that curve down to the comfortable range.
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Old 10-19-2018, 02:50 AM   #4
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The economy has been out of wack since 07. The cheap money means businesses have refinanced their debt and we have cheap house loans. There canít be a normal rotation anymore. If a crash occurs President Trump will introduce a few trillion in infrastructure improvements.
The real problem is the national debt and the move away from the dollar as the worlds money. These charts donít apply.
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Old 10-19-2018, 06:18 AM   #5
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There's always a bubble forming, then bursting. That's pretty much how markets work when you've got a herd of emotional monkeys chasing the next hot thing (that would be humans ). And giving data from only the last 20 years is really weak - how about the other crashes seen during the 20th century? When this "indicator" showed nothing of the sort? And how many crashes has this "expert" predicted since 2008 that never happened?

Gloom and doom always nets eyeballs. If this "everything" bubble is really happening, what should we do about it? I see no concrete advice, just crying wolf.

And it's really easy now to criticize the Fed for their "easy money" policies. In 2008 we were looking down the barrel of a second Great Depression, they did what they could to prevent that. I don't recall any of these brilliant talking heads having a better idea to prevent worldwide economic collapse.
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Old 10-19-2018, 07:52 AM   #6
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For me I'm going to do nothing that is what I have done and I have survived nicely. I will hunker down and weather the storm.
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Old 10-19-2018, 07:59 AM   #7
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I am the one who believes in "creative distruction". We need to let "free market" work it's way out of the next crash rather than softening the blow. Every time we bail out market for their reckless behavior, we promote more of it. It's like preventing the wild fires.
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Old 10-19-2018, 09:11 AM   #8
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I am the one who believes in "creative distruction". We need to let "free market" work it's way out of the next crash rather than softening the blow. Every time we bail out market for their reckless behavior, we promote more of it. It's like preventing the wild fires.
And when politicians "let things happen" there will be glaciers in Miami.

Ha
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Old 10-19-2018, 03:10 PM   #9
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For me I'm going to do nothing that is what I have done and I have survived nicely. I will hunker down and weather the storm.
That's what many people plan to do; hunker down and weather the storm.

Some are better prepared than others.

Just like what just happened in the last hurricane Michael.

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Old 10-19-2018, 04:05 PM   #10
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That's what many people plan to do; hunker down and weather the storm.

Some are better prepared than others.

Just like what just happened in the last hurricane Michael.

The story about that house was incredible!
Yup. Either one is ready - - - or not. When the inevitable happens, we'll know who was in what camp.
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Old 10-19-2018, 04:13 PM   #11
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That's what many people plan to do; hunker down and weather the storm.

Some are better prepared than others.

Just like what just happened in the last hurricane Michael.

I like that analogy very nice!
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Old 10-19-2018, 04:39 PM   #12
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I don't think a hurricane is the right metaphor.



The market is more like the inflatable punching dummies with weighted bases. After getting hit, it pretty reliably pops back up on its own.
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Old 10-19-2018, 06:30 PM   #13
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The story about that house was incredible!
Yup. Either one is ready - - - or not. When the inevitable happens, we'll know who was in what camp.
Yes, spend an extra $30K for hurricane hardening, and look how he was rewarded! A house still standing, and no noisy neighbors (for now, until they start to rebuild their weaker houses).
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Old 10-19-2018, 09:08 PM   #14
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I don't think a hurricane is the right metaphor.



The market is more like the inflatable punching dummies with weighted bases. After getting hit, it pretty reliably pops back up on its own.




Yes, the market has always bounced back in the past. And if you leave your stash alone, it will come back too, provided that it is not loaded with things like dot-coms in the past, or bitcoins at the present.

But, but, but history has shown that the market may take a sweet time to do so, something like 10 years easily. If you draw on your stash for living expenses, you are by definition not leaving it alone.

And if a person has too high a WR while the market goes down and stays stagnant, his stash will go down and down. Maybe even gets obliterated.
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Old 10-19-2018, 10:29 PM   #15
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I haven't seen where this has been posted. I don't have a lot of comment on the article but that I beleive it will happen. I wish I wouldn't read these prediction article. LOL
I suggest you sell everything. Since the $ will be worthless, buy dried food, canned food, non-gmo seeds, ammo,things that process ammo, and plenty of fuel if you live in cold climates. Then you will feel better reading these articles.
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Old 10-19-2018, 10:38 PM   #16
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I suggest you sell everything. Since the $ will be worthless, buy dried food, canned food, non-gmo seeds, ammo,things that process ammo, and plenty of fuel if you live in cold climates. Then you will feel better reading these articles.

No! Not "non-gmo seeds". For survival, GMO seeds are good. They are fertile, and produce clones of the parent plants.
It is the traditional hybrids that you want to avoid. The seeds of an F-1 hybrid are often infertile (like a mule), and if not, they produce plants that are different from (and often inferior to) the parent.

Oh yeah - sell everything.

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Old 10-19-2018, 10:57 PM   #17
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No! Not "non-gmo seeds". For survival, GMO seeds are good. They are fertile, and produce clones of the parent plants.
It is the traditional hybrids that you want to avoid. The seeds of an F-1 hybrid are often infertile (like a mule), and if not, they produce plants that are different from (and often inferior to) the parent.

Oh yeah - sell everything.

-ERD50
Aw crap, now I'm gonna die because I'm not prepared.

At least I have the other things covered, perhaps I can 'barter' for seed.
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Old 10-19-2018, 11:12 PM   #18
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Aw crap, now I'm gonna die because I'm not prepared.

At least I have the other things covered, perhaps I can 'barter' for seed.
In the mean time, pick up some shares of Monsanto and ConAgra, just in case the Stock market Zombie Apocalypse doesn't happen. That way you have a hedge.
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Old 10-19-2018, 11:47 PM   #19
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Aw crap, now I'm gonna die because I'm not prepared.

At least I have the other things covered, perhaps I can 'barter' for seed.
Donít worry, I sell you mine. I have tons of seedlings sprouted out of my worm bin. Great environment for starting seeds.
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Old 10-20-2018, 09:11 AM   #20
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I don't think a hurricane is the right metaphor.



The market is more like the inflatable punching dummies with weighted bases. After getting hit, it pretty reliably pops back up on its own.
But, but, this time, it's gonna be different!!!! NOT.

Also, every time the clown went down, it came back larger. Every time. Yeah, might take a while, but that's to be expected.
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