Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Old 05-17-2017, 02:21 PM   #21
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 666
I just checked VTSAX and VFINX which are showing -0.05% change today when the major indexes are showing -1.xx%

Price as of 05/16/2017 $60.06
Change –$0.03 –0.05%
__________________

__________________
Target FI age /year: 50/2025
dvalley is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 05-17-2017, 02:24 PM   #22
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
SecondCor521's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Boise
Posts: 2,717
I vote for short (<3 months) blip. Not because I think that will happen, but because that is what I want to happen.

Predictions: Same as everyone else here - nobody knows in the short term, probably higher in the long term.

If it drops "a lot" I would reallocate from bonds to stocks. I'm not sure what the absolute drop would be, but I cap my bond allocation at 10%, so if if rises above that I'll reallocate. (As of last night I was at 8.38%.)
__________________

__________________
"At times the world can seem an unfriendly and sinister place, but believe us when we say there is much more good in it than bad. All you have to do is look hard enough, and what might seem to be a series of unfortunate events, may in fact be the first steps of a journey." Violet Baudelaire.
SecondCor521 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 05-17-2017, 02:24 PM   #23
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Sep 2012
Posts: 424
Regardless of what happens in market on daily basis, I rebalance my AA once a year around end of the year after final distribution of CG/DIV.
__________________
Retired at age 52 on 12/1/2016
AA:60/40 WR:3% until 2022 then 4% is the plan
retire2020 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-17-2017, 02:30 PM   #24
Full time employment: Posting here.
dixonge's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Posts: 956
I recently completed my portfolio reshuffle. As in, yesterday. Sure would have been nice to be making those purchases this afternoon instead!

So, you're welcome?

Hey, is the top in yet? lol
dixonge is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-17-2017, 02:31 PM   #25
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
pb4uski's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: Vermont & Sarasota, FL
Posts: 18,126
+1 although I have been rebalancing a little more frequently as a defensive move because I perceive the market to be a bit frothy.
__________________
If something cannot endure laughter.... it cannot endure.
Patience is the art of concealing your impatience.
Slow and steady wins the race.

Retired Jan 2012 at age 56...60/35/5 AA
pb4uski is offline   Reply With Quote
Gotta include error bars
Old 05-17-2017, 02:31 PM   #26
Full time employment: Posting here.
Mdlerth's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2016
Location: The Shire
Posts: 658
Gotta include error bars

Tomorrow? up 5 points, +/- 500. Daily variability is awfully high to guess with greater precision.

One month? This is a hunch rather than an expectation, but I'd guess it will be down 100 points, +/- 1000. Just a feeling. Sell in May.

One year? Up 500, +/- 2000. GDP growth has been too low for too long to remain suppressed. I don't believe the US has the constraints that have afflicted Japan for the past two decades. For one thing, we don't have to crowd a third of our population into a single gigantic city.

Five years? Up by 15,000 points, +/- 20,000. That's 6% per year compounded, with a sensible allowance for the spread. According to the life expectancy tables I have something like a 5.5% chance of expiring during those five years, so I have every intention of being more concerned with my health than the market. May everyone on this board arrive there safely with me!
__________________
Paying it forward is the best investment.
Mdlerth is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-17-2017, 02:38 PM   #27
Moderator
ziggy29's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Texas
Posts: 15,624
Quote:
Originally Posted by OldShooter View Post
2,000 point drop I'm thinking seriously about buying. >3,000 point drop I am definitely a buyer.
This. Very much this You have to remember that the market has had a pretty remarkable run since the 2009 bottom (it has roughly tripled in 8+ years). Frankly we are overdue for a significant correction. But I have no idea when or how much. All I know is that my AA keeps some "dry powder" in reserve in order to buy low.
__________________
"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)

RIP to Reemy, my avatar dog (2003 - 9/16/2017)
ziggy29 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-17-2017, 03:02 PM   #28
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
imoldernu's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2012
Location: Peru
Posts: 4,668
The VIX is up 46% today @15.6. Wondering if anyone here uses it for making long or short term decisions.

Am trying to understand the mechanics and implications, and looking at times of major volatility.

Here's an older (2015) website that does some comparisons.

https://www.seeitmarket.com/is-the-v...-stocks-14871/

Any thoughts on this?
imoldernu is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-17-2017, 03:20 PM   #29
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
OldShooter's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2017
Location: City
Posts: 1,635
Quote:
Originally Posted by imoldernu View Post
That kind of stuff (technical analysis) is complete bunk.

@imoldernu, with respect you need to stop worrying about this stuff. The market is going to do whatever it decides to do. When it does that, some of the chattering monkeys will look like geniuses. Next time it does something, there will be other monkeys that look like geniuses. But they all will still be ignorant monkeys.

Pick an AA that will work for your age and risk tolerance, sit back and enjoy the ride. If you want to look while the market it up, enjoy the view. When the market is down, stop looking.
OldShooter is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-17-2017, 03:22 PM   #30
Full time employment: Posting here.
ESRwannabe's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 678
Quote:
Originally Posted by imoldernu View Post
My portfolio is teeny... not a big thing, but I'd love to hear from my more financially savvy friends, how they see the future of the market... For simplicity, the DJIA.
Not the reason, and no politics, but just your personal thinking about the future.
Tomorrow... One Month... One Year... Five years.

As I type... DJIA -$279.

And... maybe one more thing...
What, if anything would cause you to make a change in your current basic plan... ie. how big a dip? %?

The stock market has been overvalued for a while, but its not evenly distributed. If you take like the top 10 stocks in the S&P or just the FANG stocks, they are in a bubble maybe even worse than 1999/2007. Outside of that you can still find companies that are reasonable, some even cheap.

My guess is all the QE will have unintended consequences that leave us worse off than before. That seems to be the re-occurring theme with the central banks and their bankster pals.

I am mostly in high credit quality municipal bond CEFs. I made that change a couple of months ago when there was a nice discount, due to naive expectations for tax cuts and infrastructure spending. I didn't and still don't believe anything can get done, as the gov is too dysfunctional. So I banked my gains from the last few years.

New money is still being aggressively invested... so I won't feel left out.

I think that the developed world is going to be stuck in low growth for many years/decades due to demographics and job destroying technology. I don't see wage growth happening. So while some things may increase in cost (like our worst-in-the-entire-developed-world healthcare system) I do not see broad inflation happening.

One thing that might happen is the dollar loses its reserve currency status. So I plan to do a better job spreading my investments out globally. I may even buy some gold.
ESRwannabe is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-17-2017, 03:35 PM   #31
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Spanky's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Minneapolis
Posts: 4,128
Quote:
Originally Posted by RobbieB View Post
Who cares?
Anyone who is heavily invested or holding long positions in the stock market. Even those holding short future positions would care as they will receive a big gain.
__________________
May we live in peace and harmony and be free from all human sufferings.
Spanky is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-17-2017, 03:50 PM   #32
Full time employment: Posting here.
ESRwannabe's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 678
I will add that I'm really enjoying all these highly leveraged ETF and ETN options...

Larry Swedroe over at Boggleheads has been using an asset allocation of 70% or 80% high credit quality bonds with 20%-30% in small cap value plus small cap intl/emerging markets, for many years.

I guess I have my own Frankenstein interpretation going with 80%+ high credit muni CEFs coupled with 2xlevered Mortgage REIT, MLPs, BDCs, etc. lol

Oh if we do get substantial pull back again, next time I am buying 3xlevered S&P 500 ETF for as long as QE lasts (and I will always buy the dip).

ESRwannabe is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-17-2017, 04:40 PM   #33
Moderator Emeritus
W2R's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 40,286
Wow. (not? )

Today the stock market dropped.
Also today my annual homeowner's insurance payment cleared the bank, lowering the amount I had in the bank. Plus I hit the ATM for some $$$.

The sum of my portfolio+bank accounts went down less than half a percent. Oh the humanity!

I'm sleepy. Wake me up when it's over.

It's late May. This happens in late May a lot.
W2R is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 05-17-2017, 04:45 PM   #34
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 1,327
In a sea of red on the Fidelity webpage, I noticed a single green line. Brown and Forman went up 3.61 percent today. Must be a lot of booze being consumed in Washington DC and on Wall Street these days.

It's a good thing for W2R that she did not reveal the names of her favorite restaurants. A lot of people are going to blame her recent comments if this turns into a significant correction... Maybe we can also blame FUEGO, who published a post on his blog this morning about how much his net worth has risen since his early retirement.
Another Reader is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 05-17-2017, 04:47 PM   #35
Full time employment: Posting here.
UnrealizedPotential's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2014
Posts: 700
I used to worry about what is going to happen on days like this. I still do, but not near as much as I used to. I finally figured out nobody knows nothing. Just keep investing and hope the market goes up over time. In the past it has.
__________________
Understanding both the power of compound interest and the difficulty of getting it is the heart and soul of understanding a lot of things. Charlie Munger
UnrealizedPotential is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-17-2017, 04:47 PM   #36
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 1,621
Quote:
Originally Posted by dvalley View Post
I just checked VTSAX and VFINX which are showing -0.05% change today when the major indexes are showing -1.xx%

Price as of 05/16/2017 $60.06
Change –$0.03 –0.05%
FWIW the Closing Price today 5/17: VTSAX 58.94 -1.86% , VFINX -1.79% these funds sometimes take awhile to price the NAV after the 4 o'clock close.

Anyhow we'll just have to see how it works out. With my relatively conservative/moderate AA I'll still sleep well.
__________________
Taking Social Security at 62 and hoping I live long enough to regret the decision.
foxfirev5 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-17-2017, 04:48 PM   #37
Moderator Emeritus
W2R's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 40,286
Quote:
Originally Posted by Another Reader View Post
It's a good thing for W2R that she did not reveal the names of her favorite restaurants. A lot of people are going to blame her recent comments if this turns into a significant correction...
Hey, you ingrates should be happy, it's a buying opportunity. Blue light special on stocks! Just kidding.
W2R is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 05-17-2017, 04:54 PM   #38
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
sengsational's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2010
Posts: 4,176
Quote:
Originally Posted by ESRwannabe View Post
...
Oh if we do get substantial pull back again, next time I am buying 3xlevered S&P 500 ETF for as long as QE lasts (and I will always buy the dip).

BTFDYI!
sengsational is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-17-2017, 08:24 PM   #39
Full time employment: Posting here.
Markola's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2013
Posts: 622
The DJIA is definitely going up! Unless it goes down. Or sideways for a while.
Markola is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-17-2017, 08:35 PM   #40
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Chuckanut's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: West of the Mississippi
Posts: 7,071
Between unpatriotic Boomers who are not spending enough and avocado munching Millennials who are wasting their money, the market is doomed.
__________________

__________________
The worst decisions are usually made in times of anger and impatience.
Chuckanut is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Is the double dip coming? Florida Stock Picking and Market Strategy 124 06-29-2010 02:26 PM
Headed For A Double Dip Recession? novaman Stock Picking and Market Strategy 32 10-26-2009 02:12 PM
Many Retirees get to Double Dip? mickeyd FIRE and Money 2 02-28-2009 09:07 AM
Should I dip into my HELOC to buy? ER_Hopeful FIRE and Money 45 10-18-2008 03:08 PM
Triple Dip tryan FIRE and Money 12 10-10-2005 11:47 PM

 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 09:41 PM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2018, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.