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Old 05-17-2017, 08:48 PM   #41
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It's a DipBlip. BTFDYI!
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Old 05-17-2017, 09:26 PM   #42
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I'm almost always wrong, but to answer Imoldernu, I predict up a bit tomorrow, down for the week. Up for the month, up for the year. 5 years out over 30,000.

On a personal level, I'm too heavy in cash and have been waiting for a correction+ to get more into the market, but we haven't had one for a long time.

If you go back and look at the comments on this board from the 2007-08 crash, it was a pretty sobering time for many posters. Some questioned their retirement decisions and worried a lot about the market. Hard to know what to do and when. I pulled some out early and held on to it, earning about 4%-5%. It was mistake in hindsight, but I sleep well.

Now that I'm retired, I'm more into capital preservation mode. But will move more into stocks with a major downturn. Been retired about 17 months and haven't touched my retirement funds - hope to delay touching them for a few more years.
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Old 05-17-2017, 09:31 PM   #43
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I really don't worry about this stuff. I made a lotta dough in the market and I'm still making a lotta dough in the market.

If you fear the market, buy CD's.
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Old 05-17-2017, 09:40 PM   #44
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At one point last year we had some cash from a real estate transaction. I kept 5 years living expenses back just cause I could not answer this question.
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Old 05-17-2017, 09:41 PM   #45
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I don't know what will happen in the markets in the next few hours, days, months, years. But the impact on my investment strategy is as follows: I hold a nominal 50/50 asset allocation as I have since ER 15 years ago (currently 67 years old) with a wide 10% rebalance band. This has served me well. As things approach the bumpers I start paying attention and planning what to do. Yesterday my AA was 53/47. Today it's 52.7/47.3. Still quite a ways from the bumpers. Net result? Naps continue.
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Old 05-17-2017, 09:49 PM   #46
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Call me optimistic but I see Dow 40,000.
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Old 05-17-2017, 10:23 PM   #47
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My portfolio is teeny... not a big thing, but I'd love to hear from my more financially savvy friends, how they see the future of the market... For simplicity, the DJIA.
Not the reason, and no politics, but just your personal thinking about the future.
Tomorrow... One Month... One Year... Five years.

As I type... DJIA -$279.

And... maybe one more thing...
What, if anything would cause you to make a change in your current basic plan... ie. how big a dip? %?
Tomorrow-132.79
One month -466.93
One year -3422.75
Five years +12.70.

I set a low bar, and hope to be pleasantly surprised.
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Old 05-18-2017, 01:14 AM   #48
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I don't know what will happen in the markets in the next few hours, days, months, years. But the impact on my investment strategy is as follows: I hold a nominal 50/50 asset allocation as I have since ER 15 years ago (currently 67 years old) with a wide 10% rebalance band. This has served me well. As things approach the bumpers I start paying attention and planning what to do. Yesterday my AA was 53/47. Today it's 52.7/47.3. Still quite a ways from the bumpers. Net result? Naps continue.


Did you have those 10% bands in 2009 when things were sharply dropping? I hold 50/50 with 5% bands that I was thinking of increasing. What was 2009 like for you and rebalancing? Sounds like we both quit work 52ish. I hope if and when I make it to 67 I can say I have been well served too.
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Old 05-18-2017, 05:18 AM   #49
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Call me optimistic but I see Dow 40,000.
So do I. But WHEN is the question!
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Old 05-18-2017, 07:27 AM   #50
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I won't try to predict the future. But yesterday's action closed the SP500 below the 50-day moving average. In and of itself, that calls for nothing except increased vigilance. But you can almost feel a subtle difference in the air.

Seeking Alpha ran a good article comparing the current events to some of the prior scandals like Watergate and Iran-Contra. The scandals were not the trigger.....but the coverup was impactful. I'll leave it to the interested students to google it.

To ignore street signs is to perhaps miss one's destination.
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Old 05-18-2017, 07:31 AM   #51
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Seeking Alpha has not been accurate, I stopped following them. I missed making money on TESLA because of them.
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Old 05-18-2017, 08:13 AM   #52
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Did you have those 10% bands in 2009 when things were sharply dropping? I hold 50/50 with 5% bands that I was thinking of increasing. What was 2009 like for you and rebalancing? Sounds like we both quit work 52ish. I hope if and when I make it to 67 I can say I have been well served too.
Yes, I did. Actually the band limit forced me into rebalancing (stocks to bonds) in 2007. As a result of that rebalancing I got to the 2008 debacle already light on stocks. I was just about ready to pull the trigger for my first ever rebalancing of bonds to stocks (with great trepidation!) in March of 2009 when things started turning around.

I should also mention that almost 50% of my liquid NW is in automatically rebalancing Vanguard funds (Wellesley, Wellington and Target Retirement Income) so that the effects of market volatility are not as pronounced as they would be if I owned pure stock and bond funds.
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Old 05-18-2017, 11:39 AM   #53
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As we are way overdue for a correction, I am guessing there will be one. Though I said the same thing last year.
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Old 05-18-2017, 12:27 PM   #54
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I'm leaning towards bear, as an increasing number of folks I know who got out of the market during 2008-2009 and swore they would never go back in are now talking about getting back in. So you know what that means.
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Old 05-18-2017, 01:02 PM   #55
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. So you know what that means.
It means the shoe-shine guy is now giving stock market advice.

Danger Will Robinson!!
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Old 05-18-2017, 03:39 PM   #56
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One of the analogies I read in some book was this one: Consider someone walking across a large field with a 10-month-old Labrador Retriever on a 100-foot leash. The person is walking at a steady 3.5 MPH – that’s the steady growth of the economy. The puppy is going to be all over the place, sometimes lagging behind and sometimes running far ahead and it is impossible to foresee what direction the puppy is going to run. That’s the volatility of the stock market. But the puppy is going to average over time a steady 3.5 MPH because he’s on that leash.
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Old 05-18-2017, 06:44 PM   #57
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One of the analogies I read in some book was this one: Consider someone walking across a large field with a 10-month-old Labrador Retriever on a 100-foot leash. The person is walking at a steady 3.5 MPH Ė thatís the steady growth of the economy. The puppy is going to be all over the place, sometimes lagging behind and sometimes running far ahead and it is impossible to foresee what direction the puppy is going to run. Thatís the volatility of the stock market. But the puppy is going to average over time a steady 3.5 MPH because heís on that leash.
That's a good analogy. Another one I heard years ago: the market is like walking up a flight of stairs while playing with a yo-yo. The yo-yo goes up and down all the time. But the overall trend is up.
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Old 05-18-2017, 09:25 PM   #58
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I have a special circumstance ...had some megacorp lump sum rollover from recent retirement so have been waiting for corrections, even those that are only a day long :-) While not very scientific, I plan to buy in only at 10% each drop till I reach my desired AA. Limit to 10% in order to slow my enthusiasm for buying a bit off whatever the high had been ....:-)
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Old 05-18-2017, 10:25 PM   #59
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Seeking Alpha has not been accurate, I stopped following them. I missed making money on TESLA because of them.

Yeah, they told me oil was going up soon too so I bought Exxon at $73!
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Old 05-18-2017, 10:30 PM   #60
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Are you waiting for a correction of 10% or more? If you only add 10% each drop it will take ten corrections and we haven't had one in > 8 yrs.
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