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A glimmer of hope - Heed the advice of The Smartest Man
10-26-2008, 10:07 AM
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#1
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 5,105
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A glimmer of hope - Heed the advice of The Smartest Man
reportonbusiness.com: Heed the advice of The Smartest Man
This guy at least called the decline and now he is getting positive.
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10-26-2008, 10:41 AM
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#2
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: New Orleans
Posts: 47,498
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Interesting! This guy sure has plenty of qualifications and a successful history in predicting market trends.
Of particular interest to me is the fact that he thinks the U.S. has a 30% chance of having a currency crisis.
I hope he is right about the world getting out of this recession pretty soon.
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Already we are boldly launched upon the deep; but soon we shall be lost in its unshored, harbourless immensities. - - H. Melville, 1851.
Happily retired since 2009, at age 61. Best years of my life by far!
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10-26-2008, 10:49 AM
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#3
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 1,543
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Stupid question, but what exactly would a currency crisis be?
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10-26-2008, 11:41 AM
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#4
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Administrator
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Chicagoland
Posts: 40,703
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Quote:
Originally Posted by happy2bretired
Stupid question, but what exactly would a currency crisis be?
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The US$ would fall steeply against other major currencies (yen, euro) in a short period of time. Say, a 30-50% decline in 2-3 weeks.
It is possible but not likely - because in order to have a currency crisis you need two ingredients - a weak currency and a strong currency. There currently is no strong freely traded currency in the world other than the US$.
Michael
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In economics, things take longer to happen than you think they will, and then they happen faster than you thought they could.”
― Rudiger Dornbusch
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10-26-2008, 12:03 PM
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#5
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: At The Cafe
Posts: 6,873
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"There are, however, some things The Smartest Man wouldn't touch. They happen to be the assets the investing masses have flocked to in this crisis: U.S. Treasuries and the greenback."
When a poster here mentions CDs, s/he gets pounded on for inflation risk. Yesterday, on another thread, I mentioned my zero coupon bond fund is running in the black, and I want to pounce on myself because how can I continue to trust in "full faith and credit" of the U.S. govt.? This looks like the buying opportunity of my lifetime, and I'm buying stock funds the same way I did in 1974, slowly wading in for the long term.
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10-26-2008, 12:10 PM
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#6
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
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I generally think the "Smartest Man" analysis is sound. How does a debtor country like ours thrive against other producing countries? We all know the US has been running a trade deficit forever. Same as individuals, how long can we use our home as ATM (read HELOC)?
But on the other hand, there is yet no reason for the greenback to crash (knock on wood), as MB pointed out. But I would keep very close watch on the foreign stock markets and their currencies. Never say never...
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10-26-2008, 12:10 PM
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#7
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: North Oregon Coast
Posts: 16,483
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CuppaJoe
"There are, however, some things The Smartest Man wouldn't touch. They happen to be the assets the investing masses have flocked to in this crisis: U.S. Treasuries and the greenback."
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Just goes to show there's always a bubble somewhere. In a "flight to safety," the bubble is in the asset considered "safe."
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"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)
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10-26-2008, 12:15 PM
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#8
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ziggy29
Just goes to show there's always a bubble somewhere. In a "flight to safety," the bubble is in the asset considered "safe."
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I remember 2 years ago, discussing the housing situation with a younger guy in his late 30s. He said you couldn't lose money in a McMansion; immediate return via mortgage tax deduction, plus the price kept rising up.
Have not talked to him recently about it, but I will not bother. It is not nice to rub salt into someone else's wound...
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10-26-2008, 02:08 PM
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#9
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 12,880
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I'm going to reserve judgment until I hear what Marilyn Vos Savant says. Anybody got Parade magazine yet?
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Al
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10-26-2008, 02:16 PM
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#10
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: North of Montana
Posts: 2,769
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ziggy29
In a "flight to safety," the bubble is in the asset considered "safe."
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Ding! Ding! Ding?
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There are two kinds of people in the world: those who can extrapolate conclusions from insufficient data and ..
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10-26-2008, 04:57 PM
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#11
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: At The Cafe
Posts: 6,873
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TromboneAl
I'm going to reserve judgment until I hear what Marilyn Vos Savant says. Anybody got Parade magazine yet?
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I cancelled my subscription. Let us know what she says.
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10-26-2008, 05:46 PM
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#12
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 1,543
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one of my newsletters tracks the $$$ and the high came back in 1985 and it's been a steady slide since. according to their chart analysis this is a normal rally and it will soon end and another slide will start ending in sometime next decade
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