A long view of where we are economically

[Amethyst]

Hmmm, could be a good time to buy some shares of HSY (Hershey)!

You gals are too much. Chocolate, chocolate....and red wine to go with it....and there goes my Wednesday weigh-in....will have to get under the old chair and hide but hey, at least I'll feel better, temporarily, about the economy.

[Meadbh]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bestwifeever Hmmm, could be a good time to buy some shares of HSY (Hershey)!

Or cosmetics! The Lipstick Index:

Spotting a recession: The lipstick index | This is Money

Leading Lipstick Indicator

Economist: The "lipstick index" -- cosmetic sales in ugly times

[RonBoyd]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Meadbh What's a girl to do? Here, no calories!

Whereabouts.jpg

[NW-Bound]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Amethyst Sigh. I'm of a mind that there are too many random, interconnected influences, from the tiny to the gargantuan, on the world economy, to allow generalization from the 1930's, the 1970's, or any other period. The time we are in is unique to itself, and will play out accordingly. I wish I could believe otherwise, since that might allow me to grasp at some theory that'll tell me what to do next about my family's finances. The fact is, I have no more clue than I did at age 21. All I can do is hope the time-honored strategies that I already knew about back then (work hard, LBYM) and learned about years later (DCA) won't be undone by some unpredictable event, or set of well-meant policies. Wait, they already have been undone to some extent. Amethyst, feeling discouraged. (I think I need chocolate).

I recently ran across this ballad from Scorpions, "Send me an angel", with soothing lyrics to me.

"The wise man said just find your place
In the eye of the storm
Seek the roses along the way
Just beware of the thorns

Here I am
Will you send me an angel
Here I am
In the land of the morning star"

Curiously, the German band's songs were all in English and the band was known in the 80s as a heavy-metal hard rock band, not at all my style. However, the lead Klaus Meine is older than myself (60 vs 52), and has now mellowed to the point where I can enjoy his music.

YouTube - Scorpions-Send Me An Angel (Acoustic version)

PS. Not being a religious type, I also found out that Lucifer is the Latin word for the Morningstar.

[W2R]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Amethyst Sigh. I'm of a mind that there are too many random, interconnected influences, from the tiny to the gargantuan, on the world economy, to allow generalization from the 1930's, the 1970's, or any other period. The time we are in is unique to itself, and will play out accordingly. I wish I could believe otherwise, since that might allow me to grasp at some theory that'll tell me what to do next about my family's finances. The fact is, I have no more clue than I did at age 21. All I can do is hope the time-honored strategies that I already knew about back then (work hard, LBYM) and learned about years later (DCA) won't be undone by some unpredictable event, or set of well-meant policies. Wait, they already have been undone to some extent. Amethyst, feeling discouraged. (I think I need chocolate).

I couldn't agree more. It seems like we have been waiting forever for the economy to recover and sometimes I wonder if we will ever have another strong bull market.

We aren't guaranteed that future market behavior will resemble past market behavior... but it is all we have to go on. So, we wait, and hope, and wonder if our faith in the market is justified or not. We quietly move articles on the Efficient Market to the bottom of the stack of investing articles we have collected, and say nothing. We stay up late trying to figure out what will happen, only to conclude that we don't have sufficient information.

Two certainties occur to me.

First, after economic events unfold, they will seem like the obvious consequences and we will wonder why we ever doubted and wondered.

Second, we will get through this, no matter how formidable the challenges. So, might as well enjoy life along the way. Let's hear it for stopping to smell the roses, and/or a "party on" mentality along the way! Mardi Gras is February 24th this year.

[Rustic23]

I heard a talking head say something like this. The economy will recover. The consumer will start spending. Cars wear out. Newlyweds wed. Kids grow. As the layoffs taper off, and those with jobs feel more secure, they will begin to spend.

I still think the price of oil is a major factor. If it stays low or reasonable then I think we will have a somewhat normal recovery. It it spikes back high, then I don't think it bodes well for a recovery. I think oil acts just like the feds fund rates as far as clamping down on the economy. However, currently, I don't see anything on the horizon that changes my current outlook.