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A prescient sage or self promoting Roubini wannabee?
Old 02-15-2009, 03:02 PM   #1
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A prescient sage or self promoting Roubini wannabee?

Just saw this guy on Glen Beck show on Fox. Of course he claims to have predicted everything and is now predicting food riots, depression worse than the great depression, etc. all in the next few years.

Celente Predicts Revolution, Food Riots, Tax Rebellions By 2012

Just what we needed! Anyone familiar with this guy?
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Old 02-15-2009, 03:32 PM   #2
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The Trends Research Institute® - Tracking, Analyzing and Forecasting International Business Trends
The Trends Research Institute ® - Journal
Gerald Celente - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Gerald Celente, Futurist Fraud : Edward Champion’s Reluctant Habits

At first glance it doesn't look like much to me.
It reminds me of a fortune teller's "cold reading"
Rorschach Inkblot Test, Fortune Tellers, and Cold Reading (Skeptical Inquirer July 2003)

If, he were to say, for example, that abc happening will lead to xyz in 2012 there might be more to discuss. But, like a fake physic he leaves that out (in the attached article) and lead the abc to the listener.

Roubini gave reasons for his conclusions.

Finally, he is from the Bronx, NY - a place known for its BS artists.
http://www.nypl.org/branch/bronx/ind...?Trg=1&d1=1386
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Old 02-15-2009, 03:33 PM   #3
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Just saw this guy on Glen Beck show on Fox. Of course he claims to have predicted everything and is now predicting food riots, depression worse than the great depression, etc. all in the next few years.

Celente Predicts Revolution, Food Riots, Tax Rebellions By 2012

Just what we needed! Anyone familiar with this guy?
Reads like the screen play to "Mad Max".
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Old 02-15-2009, 04:02 PM   #4
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Old 02-15-2009, 04:10 PM   #5
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Good example why I watch less news on tv. Too many people claiming they are a modern day Nostradamus. Things could very well get worse and to whatever extent it does, he will add that to his resume.
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Old 02-15-2009, 04:33 PM   #6
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Good example why I watch less news on tv. Too many people claiming they are a modern day Nostradamus. Things could very well get worse and to whatever extent it does, he will add that to his resume.
And what's worse is that economic prophecies can be self-fulfilling if the "prophet" is good enough at "selling" their point of view. Someone who is really persuasive about promoting doomsday could have more people selling all their stocks, hoarding all their cash, nailing their wallets shut and buying gold, guns and ammo, et cetera. And the more people they can convince, the more likely it is that they will be "right" regardless of what economic conditions actually were at the time they issued their prophecies.

That's what scares me about the always-open, always-on 24/7 media. It's just way too easy to exacerbate boom and bust cycles by getting people to pump up irrational exuberance and get people to retrench in mortal fear. Neither is good for the stability of the business cycle. There are always ups and downs in the business cycle, but it feels like these people amplify them.
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Old 02-15-2009, 05:15 PM   #7
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I watch or listen to Beck every now and then, but I always remember his show's self-proclaimed genre: A blend of news and entertainment.
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Old 02-15-2009, 06:01 PM   #8
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And what's worse is that economic prophecies can be self-fulfilling if the "prophet" is good enough at "selling" their point of view. Someone who is really persuasive about promoting doomsday could have more people selling all their stocks, hoarding all their cash, nailing their wallets shut and buying gold, guns and ammo, et cetera. And the more people they can convince, the more likely it is that they will be "right" regardless of what economic conditions actually were at the time they issued their prophecies.

That's what scares me about the always-open, always-on 24/7 media. It's just way too easy to exacerbate boom and bust cycles by getting people to pump up irrational exuberance and get people to retrench in mortal fear. Neither is good for the stability of the business cycle. There are always ups and downs in the business cycle, but it feels like these people amplify them.
Exactly. I wonder how many people will go w/d a wad of cash from the bank and stick under their mattress after seeing this?
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Old 02-15-2009, 06:09 PM   #9
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Exactly. I wonder how many people will go w/d a wad of cash from the bank and stick under their mattress after seeing this?
Eh, no problem, the Treasury can always throw another printing press on the line...
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Old 02-16-2009, 09:22 AM   #10
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I watch or listen to Beck every now and then, but I always remember his show's self-proclaimed genre: A blend of news and entertainment.
I'm unsure which is scarier: those who think it's "news", or those who think it's "entertainment"...
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Old 02-16-2009, 09:26 AM   #11
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Getting back to the title of the thread,

Quote:
Gerald Celente, the CEO of Trends Research Institute, is renowned for his accuracy in predicting future world and economic events, which will send a chill down your spine considering what he told Fox News this week.
Celente says that by 2012 America will become an undeveloped nation, that there will be a revolution marked by food riots, squatter rebellions, tax revolts and job marches, and that holidays will be more about obtaining food, not gifts.
It's hard to find much documentation regarding his fame for his accuracy in predicting future world and economic events. Seems he predicted the fall of the Soviet Union. Hmmm, that puts him in a singular category...perhaps a legend in his own mind...

The web site referenced is called propagandamatrix.com. This is guns, ammo and tinfoil cap territory.

Interesting, though, is that this made it onto mainstream TV (Nov 18). Could this be an early contrarian sign? When the tinfoil cap constituency make it to mainstream TV and every CEO in the world starts to blame the economy for their poor management and ineffective leadership, isn't that a sign the end is near? That is, the end of the downturn.
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Old 02-16-2009, 10:25 AM   #12
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Too many people claiming they are a modern day Nostradamus.
That's me!

I predict that...
We're all gonna die.
The world will come to an end.

However, I am a little fuzzy on the details. I am using Gummy's crystal ball.

[I am afraid that I have a little too much time on my hands today. ]
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Old 02-16-2009, 10:27 AM   #13
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That's me!

I predict that...
We're all gonna die.
Here we go again with the doomsday-mongering....
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Old 02-16-2009, 10:43 AM   #14
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I'm unsure which is scarier: those who think it's "news", or those who think it's "entertainment"...
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Old 02-16-2009, 01:45 PM   #15
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I watch or listen to Beck every now and then, but I always remember his show's self-proclaimed genre: A blend of news and entertainment.
His show was on the other day at the gym. While I probably agree with a lot of his politics, I think his show is terrible. He brings out only the most obvious points, flogs what little info there is to death (look for several repetitions of the exact same wording) and does not effectively engage his guests. I like well done political discussions, but his show is stinko (at least the part I saw).
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Old 02-16-2009, 03:23 PM   #16
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His show was on the other day at the gym. While I probably agree with a lot of his politics, I think his show is terrible. He brings out only the most obvious points, flogs what little info there is to death (look for several repetitions of the exact same wording) and does not effectively engage his guests. I like well done political discussions, but his show is stinko (at least the part I saw).
The background on the guy is he was a talk radio host. The kind that touches on everything that's current and guaranteed to spark people to want to call in and voice their opinion. Although he got more politically oriented close to the election, I wouldn't classify the show as political.

He's basically a radio talk show guy on television who has sort of modified and extended the concept into the "blend of news and entertainment" genre. But he's still the radio talk show guy who will beat a dead horse forever, go for the obvious, be way too dramatic about inane garbage only the mentally deficient have interest in, and Lord help us on slow news days when he has to really drag it out.

But there are times when the show has been informative, and occasionally even entertaining.
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Old 02-16-2009, 03:27 PM   #17
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wasn't he on The Sopranos? -
remember reading gary shilling's deflation and still glance at his insights newsletter...
there was an interesting thread back in 2006 here - lets step back a few years - Deflation ?
a guy named danm (wonder how his investments worked out) was talking about shilling & roubini back in 2006 - interesting read... he was a voice not taken seriously....by some...
Here is shilling's site - down below click on INSIGHT for a free summary of his January edition themes - link
only buying us dollar and carefully high grade bonds
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Old 02-16-2009, 04:26 PM   #18
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wasn't he on The Sopranos? -
remember reading gary shilling's deflation and still glance at his insights newsletter...
there was an interesting thread back in 2006 here - lets step back a few years - http://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f28/deflation-22993.html

a guy named danm (wonder how his investments worked out) was talking about shilling & roubini back in 2006 - interesting read... he was a voice not taken seriously....by some...
Here is shilling's site - down below click on INSIGHT for a free summary of his January edition themes - link
only buying us dollar and carefully high grade bonds
Hey, I saw a "Mad Max" clip in that video. I hope he's wrong.
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Old 02-16-2009, 05:02 PM   #19
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there was an interesting thread back in 2006 here - lets step back a few years - http://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f28/deflation-22993.html

a guy named danm (wonder how his investments worked out) was talking about shilling & roubini back in 2006 - interesting read... he was a voice not taken seriously....by some...
Here is shilling's site - down below click on INSIGHT for a free summary of his January edition themes - link
only buying us dollar and carefully high grade bonds
I just read the thread. Seems to me that he was taken quite seriously, but he wouldn't intellectually engage, he just repeated his gurus names.

Then as now, I seemed to have been/am unsure.

Regarding deflation, I think it is wrong to call asset price implosions and debt problems deflation. Compare CPI on the date of those posts with today's--we have had inflation, not deflation.

While I am not foolish enough to say we can't have CPI deflation, I would expect that we will not have that over any long period. Sudden collapse of debt financed price structures will produce a lot of problems, as they currently are. But high unemployment and business failures do not equal deflation.

During the 19th century the English speaking world had overall deflation for almost 100 years. (Especially in England) Maybe the best 100 years we will ever have, so deflation is clearly not poison. It's not deflation that causes the problems, it's that so much is financed with debt, mostly callable and/or mismatched as to maturity.

Ha
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Old 02-16-2009, 06:41 PM   #20
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I think by you he was Ha...but he was awarded a tin foil hat and whether he engaged enough in intellectual debate or not (i think he did put forth a bit more than guru names though) he did foresee the future fairly well....looking at this thread i see similar treatment of this soprano guy too...its weird the original forum thread stopped working - i'll try again - Deflation ?


that being said i'm still unsure about being sure about being sure about anything..


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I just read the thread. Seems to me that he was taken quite seriously, but he wouldn't intellectually engage, he just repeated his gurus names.

Then as now, I seemed to have been/am unsure.

Regarding deflation, I think it is wrong to call asset price implosions and debt problems deflation. Compare CPI on the date of those posts with today's--we have had inflation, not deflation.

While I am not foolish enough to say we can't have CPI deflation, I would expect that we will not have that over any long period. Sudden collapse of debt financed price structures will produce a lot of problems, as they currently are. But high unemployment and business failures do not equal deflation.

During the 19th century the English speaking world had overall deflation for almost 100 years. Maybe the best 100 years we will ever have, so deflation is clearly not poison. It's not deflation that causes the problems, it's that so much is financed with debt, mostly callable and/or mismatched as to maturity.

Ha
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