Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Personal Inflation Rates vs CPI-U
Old 12-27-2015, 10:16 AM   #101
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
photoguy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 2,301
Personal Inflation Rates vs CPI-U

Since I was working on my expense spreadsheet anyway (to tally for end of year), I made a quick chart comparing my expenses to the top category CPI-U weights.

Surprisingly (to me), they were not that different. Our spending underweights almost all categories except for recreation. I guess the big concern of mine would be medical care which is still low for us now but might be a much bigger chunk as we get older. This might result in CPI-U understating our personal inflation rate. However this might be offset by the fact that we have no educational expenses (another area with higher than normal inflation rates).
Attached Images
File Type: png Screen Shot 2015-12-27 at 10.06.15 AM.png (62.3 KB, 19 views)
__________________

__________________
photoguy is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 12-27-2015, 10:29 AM   #102
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
audreyh1's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 16,528
This year (to date) our portfolio dropped a little - down 0.47%.

When I take our Jan 2015 withdrawal into account, we are down 3.95%.

The retirement portfolio real gain since after 2012 is still positive: 5.44%. So that will more than cover next year's withdrawal. But if we don't get some portfolio growth in 2016, we'll fall behind the next year. Compared to the start of 2013 that is. We're still way ahead in real terms compared to 2000.
__________________

__________________
Well, I thought I was retired. But it seems that now I'm working as a travel agent instead!
audreyh1 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 12-27-2015, 11:00 AM   #103
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Lsbcal's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: west coast, hi there!
Posts: 5,696
We are somewhat ahead of the 2003 portfolio at retirement. Although a nice feeling as compared to down, we should all get used to a declining portfolio as the next several years unfold. That would be the most probably path, I think, if we are spending to enjoy the present.

Of course, there are all those up and to the right lines in FIRECalc. But we've had a nice bull market and I want to be realistic. Still I *hate* the idea of a down trending portfolio even for 1 year. This year our portfolio will probably be down 1 or 2%.
__________________
Lsbcal is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 12-27-2015, 11:11 AM   #104
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Chuckanut's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: West of the Mississippi
Posts: 6,337
Quote:
Well, it felt like enough of a crash to me. But I have to agree, the path in the 1930's was similar to the 2008 to March 2009 path, but just kept going down ... and down ... and down.
FWIW, the legendary John Templeton in the 1930's bought 100 shares of every stock he could find that was selling for under $1 a share until the money ran out. (Yes, he must have had money to start with.) No doubt that took guts, but, according to his biography, that was one of the best moves he ever made.
__________________
The worst decisions are usually made in times of anger and impatience.
Chuckanut is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-27-2015, 11:16 AM   #105
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 1,322
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lsbcal View Post
We are somewhat ahead of the 2003 portfolio at retirement. Although a nice feeling as compared to down, we should all get used to a declining portfolio as the next several years unfold. That would be the most probably path, I think, if we are spending to enjoy the present.

Of course, there are all those up and to the right lines in FIRECalc. But we've had a nice bull market and I want to be realistic. Still I *hate* the idea of a down trending portfolio even for 1 year. This year our portfolio will probably be down 1 or 2%.
Hopefully not too many years of declining inflation adjusted portfolio value especially for those of us newly retired. Although I don't like to see my portfolio shrink in value it is the sequence of return risk for a retiree investing in the stock market and I'm psychologically ready for it.
__________________
Corporateburnout is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 12-27-2015, 11:38 AM   #106
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Lsbcal's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: west coast, hi there!
Posts: 5,696
Quote:
Originally Posted by Corporateburnout View Post
Hopefully not too many years of declining inflation adjusted portfolio value especially for those of us newly retired. Although I don't like to see my portfolio shrink in value it is the sequence of return risk for a retiree investing in the stock market and I'm psychologically ready for it.
That (red) is key. Then hope for the better outcome.
__________________

__________________
Lsbcal is online now   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Basic 401(a) withdrawal question BigNick FIRE and Money 12 03-05-2015 06:41 AM
Basic numbers for a successful retirement. nun FIRE and Money 12 11-04-2011 06:31 PM
Poll: What is your basic income need (floor) in retirement? chinaco FIRE and Money 226 01-31-2011 07:06 AM
Review: Society of Actuaries' retirement publications Htown Harry FIRE and Money 6 10-10-2010 07:07 AM
Effective withdrawal stratagies kbst FIRE and Money 6 03-17-2006 12:54 PM

 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 01:40 PM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.