Location: Virginia, and Caribbean snowbirds in winter
Posts: 1,275
The Wall Street Journal Guide to the End of Wall Street as We Know It: What You Need to Know About the Greatest Financial Crisis of Our Time--and How to Survive It
by Dave Kansas
Books like this might indicate we're close to the bottom, in the same way as Glasman's Dow 36,000: The New Strategy for Profiting from the Coming Rise in the Stock Market was a sign of the top. Remember that one? http://www.amazon.com/Dow-36-000-Str...6517845&sr=1-2
__________________ When the wind changes, change tacks. The Retiree Formerly Known as SoonToRetire (TRFKASTR)
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Sometimes death is not as tragic as not knowing how to live. This man knew how to live--and how to make others glad they were living. - Jack Benny at Nat King Cole's funeral
__________________ "It's tough to make predictions, especially when it involves the future." ~Attributed to many
"In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice. But, in practice, there is." ~(perhaps by) Yogi Berra
"Those who have knowledge, don't predict. Those who predict, don't have knowledge."~ Lau tzu
Hopefulness is somewhat different from optimism in that hope is an emotional state, whereas optimism is a conclusion reached through a deliberate thought pattern that leads to a positive attitude.
The more people that say they see signs of the bottom the more I worry that we're going deeper, farther and longer.
__________________ "If everything is under control, you are going too slow." - Mario Andretti
I've given up trying to divine "capitulation" or other signs of a bottom. Certainly, book or magazine covers, etc., won't do it for me. It's almost certain that we'll only know the bottom in hindsight, months or years after it was in.
A significant (more than 10%) one- or two-day drop in the market.
Timothy Geithner is replaced with Paul Volcker.
The 100th day of a bankruptcy by General Motors Corp.
Gold at $2,000 an ounce.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average changes more than two names at the same time, and/or adds names to increase the overall number of stocks in the index.
New York Stock Exchange daily volume drops to 1 billion shares for 30 sessions in a row.
One million jobs lost in a month.
Stock market favorites see 15% to 20% declines.
CNBC goes off the air.
I think the author omitted one: 2B purchases a variable annuity.
__________________ Numbers is hard...
90% of building a retirement nest egg is just showing up. The other 10% is half the battle.
Use of psychology to measure bottoms is useless. Gloominess is trailing, not leading. Of course psychology will be at its most gloomy when a bottom is reached, and this can only be determined in hindsight. If the market drops further, the effect will be that we'll get even more gloomy.
There were a lot of articles trumpeting the end of capitalism at the 9500 mark, too.
The problem is that the stock market is BECOMING the financial mess, and not just reflecting it. I don't believe government policy should generally try to prop up stock prices but we are reaching a point where it is becoming every bit as much of the economic/financial death spiral as housing and the banks.
Every day the market believes the policymakers are clueless and rudderless is another day that's likely to be another down day amidst continuing uncertainty, is another day retirements bust, pensions fail and cities and states teeter closer to the brink. The market isn't just a by-product of the economy; it is increasingly becoming a driver of the economic nightmare.
__________________ "Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)
Use of psychology to measure bottoms is useless. Gloominess is trailing, not leading. Of course psychology will be at its most gloomy when a bottom is reached, and this can only be determined in hindsight. If the market drops further, the effect will be that we'll get even more gloomy.
It depends upon who you are measuring. Take a look at IBD Bull/Bear index or
AAII AAII BEARS
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Sometimes death is not as tragic as not knowing how to live. This man knew how to live--and how to make others glad they were living. - Jack Benny at Nat King Cole's funeral
I'm really disappointed. A thread title like this, and no one has posted any signs containing any bottoms yet? A quick google image search of "sign of a bottom" reveals a few potential candidates.
I'm really disappointed. A thread title like this, and no one has posted any signs containing any bottoms yet? A quick google image search of "sign of a bottom" reveals a few potential candidates.
Is this what you have in mind?
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Advice from a stranger using a pseudonym with an avatar.
The surest sign of a bottom is when people stop caring enough to look for it.
__________________ "Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)
__________________ "It's tough to make predictions, especially when it involves the future." ~Attributed to many
"In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice. But, in practice, there is." ~(perhaps by) Yogi Berra
"Those who have knowledge, don't predict. Those who predict, don't have knowledge."~ Lau tzu
Quote:
Hope those Vanguard computers rebalancing my Target Retirement on full auto haven't missed anybody. 
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