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03-08-2009, 07:09 AM
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#1
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Aug 2002
Posts: 1,322
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A sign of a bottom
The Wall Street Journal Guide to the End of Wall Street as We Know It: What You Need to Know About the Greatest Financial Crisis of Our Time--and How to Survive It
by Dave Kansas
Recommeded by Michelle Singletary in today's Washington Post. Here's the Amazon link:
http://www.amazon.com/Wall-Street-Jo.../dp/0061788406
Books like this might indicate we're close to the bottom, in the same way as Glasman's Dow 36,000: The New Strategy for Profiting from the Coming Rise in the Stock Market was a sign of the top. Remember that one?
http://www.amazon.com/Dow-36-000-Str...6517845&sr=1-2
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03-08-2009, 07:42 AM
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#2
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 5,105
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All we have is hope.
__________________
Sometimes death is not as tragic as not knowing how to live. This man knew how to live--and how to make others glad they were living. - Jack Benny at Nat King Cole's funeral
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03-08-2009, 08:17 AM
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#3
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 131
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Don't be silly.
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03-08-2009, 08:17 AM
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#4
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Denver, Colorado
Posts: 6,258
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 Quote:
Originally Posted by dex
all we have is hope.
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Hope.jpg
Hope - Eternity.jpg
__________________
"It's tough to make predictions, especially when it involves the future." ~Attributed to many
"In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice. But, in practice, there is." ~(perhaps by) Yogi Berra
"Those who have knowledge, don't predict. Those who predict, don't have knowledge."~ Lau tzu
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03-08-2009, 01:03 PM
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#5
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Where the stars at night are big and bright
Posts: 2,847
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dex
All we have is hope.
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That and $5 will get you a latte at Starbucks.
Quote:
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Hopefulness is somewhat different from optimism in that hope is an emotional state, whereas optimism is a conclusion reached through a deliberate thought pattern that leads to a positive attitude.
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The more people that say they see signs of the bottom the more I worry that we're going deeper, farther and longer.
__________________
There is no pleasure in having nothing to do; the fun is having lots to do and not doing it. - Andrew Jackson
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03-08-2009, 01:14 PM
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#6
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 312
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I've given up trying to divine "capitulation" or other signs of a bottom. Certainly, book or magazine covers, etc., won't do it for me. It's almost certain that we'll only know the bottom in hindsight, months or years after it was in.
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03-09-2009, 12:32 PM
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#7
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas: No Country for Old Men
Posts: 50,021
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Top 10 headlines that could signal a market bottom
Some serious, some not...
- A significant (more than 10%) one- or two-day drop in the market.
- Timothy Geithner is replaced with Paul Volcker.
- The 100th day of a bankruptcy by General Motors Corp.
- Gold at $2,000 an ounce.
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average changes more than two names at the same time, and/or adds names to increase the overall number of stocks in the index.
- New York Stock Exchange daily volume drops to 1 billion shares for 30 sessions in a row.
- One million jobs lost in a month.
- Stock market favorites see 15% to 20% declines.
- CNBC goes off the air.
I think the author omitted one: 2B purchases a variable annuity. 
__________________
Numbers is hard
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03-09-2009, 12:46 PM
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#8
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Central MS/Orange Beach, AL
Posts: 9,072
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__________________
Retired 3/31/2007@52
Investing style: Full time wuss.
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03-09-2009, 12:51 PM
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#9
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Dryer sheet aficionado
Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 29
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Use of psychology to measure bottoms is useless. Gloominess is trailing, not leading. Of course psychology will be at its most gloomy when a bottom is reached, and this can only be determined in hindsight. If the market drops further, the effect will be that we'll get even more gloomy.
There were a lot of articles trumpeting the end of capitalism at the 9500 mark, too.
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03-09-2009, 01:03 PM
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#10
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Kansas City
Posts: 7,968
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Hmmm - I get back from the the old doughnut shop a little while ago and CNBC has a blurb about the 40% of stocks that have advanced since the Nov low.
It's those silly ole financials that are masking recovery. We need to buy high tech among other things.
Whoopeee! I'm gonna switch over to the classic movie channel and see if Shirley Temple is tap dancing thru the Great Depression - old time movie wise.
heh heh heh -  Hope those Vanguard computers rebalancing my Target Retirement on full auto haven't missed anybody.   .
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03-09-2009, 01:22 PM
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#11
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: North Oregon Coast
Posts: 16,483
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The problem is that the stock market is BECOMING the financial mess, and not just reflecting it. I don't believe government policy should generally try to prop up stock prices but we are reaching a point where it is becoming every bit as much of the economic/financial death spiral as housing and the banks.
Every day the market believes the policymakers are clueless and rudderless is another day that's likely to be another down day amidst continuing uncertainty, is another day retirements bust, pensions fail and cities and states teeter closer to the brink. The market isn't just a by-product of the economy; it is increasingly becoming a driver of the economic nightmare.
__________________
"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)
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03-09-2009, 02:53 PM
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#12
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 5,105
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cruising2022
Use of psychology to measure bottoms is useless. Gloominess is trailing, not leading. Of course psychology will be at its most gloomy when a bottom is reached, and this can only be determined in hindsight. If the market drops further, the effect will be that we'll get even more gloomy.
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It depends upon who you are measuring. Take a look at IBD Bull/Bear index or
AAII
AAII BEARS
__________________
Sometimes death is not as tragic as not knowing how to live. This man knew how to live--and how to make others glad they were living. - Jack Benny at Nat King Cole's funeral
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03-09-2009, 03:36 PM
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#13
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
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Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 7,746
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I'm really disappointed. A thread title like this, and no one has posted any signs containing any bottoms yet? A quick google image search of "sign of a bottom" reveals a few potential candidates.
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03-09-2009, 04:27 PM
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#14
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Administrator
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Chicagoland
Posts: 40,716
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FUEGO
I'm really disappointed. A thread title like this, and no one has posted any signs containing any bottoms yet? A quick google image search of "sign of a bottom" reveals a few potential candidates.
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Is this what you have in mind?
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03-09-2009, 04:30 PM
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#15
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas: No Country for Old Men
Posts: 50,021
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That's it! Market rally tomorrow!
__________________
Numbers is hard
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03-09-2009, 05:57 PM
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#16
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: North Oregon Coast
Posts: 16,483
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The surest sign of a bottom is when people stop caring enough to look for it.
__________________
"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)
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03-09-2009, 06:33 PM
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#17
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Dec 2006
Posts: 479
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Leonidas
The more people that say they see signs of the bottom the more I worry that we're going deeper, farther and longer.
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I really do see signs of a bottom.
j/k
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03-09-2009, 06:55 PM
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#18
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
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Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 7,746
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This was all I could find. It's not a sign of a bottom, but rather an ass.
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03-10-2009, 08:34 AM
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#19
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Denver, Colorado
Posts: 6,258
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CNN Alert: Dow surges more than 200 points after Citi says it was profitable in the first two months of 2009.
Pandit memo: Citi profitable in 2009
Bottom Sign?
__________________
"It's tough to make predictions, especially when it involves the future." ~Attributed to many
"In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice. But, in practice, there is." ~(perhaps by) Yogi Berra
"Those who have knowledge, don't predict. Those who predict, don't have knowledge."~ Lau tzu
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03-10-2009, 08:57 AM
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#20
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,391
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RonBoyd
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Or a bear market rally ? Check out this DOW chart from the 20-30's.
Look at all of those rallys on the way down.
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