Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
A sign of a bottom
Old 03-08-2009, 08:09 AM   #1
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Aug 2002
Posts: 1,322
A sign of a bottom

The Wall Street Journal Guide to the End of Wall Street as We Know It: What You Need to Know About the Greatest Financial Crisis of Our Time--and How to Survive It
by Dave Kansas

Recommeded by Michelle Singletary in today's Washington Post. Here's the Amazon link:
http://www.amazon.com/Wall-Street-Jo.../dp/0061788406

Books like this might indicate we're close to the bottom, in the same way as Glasman's Dow 36,000: The New Strategy for Profiting from the Coming Rise in the Stock Market was a sign of the top. Remember that one?
http://www.amazon.com/Dow-36-000-Str...6517845&sr=1-2
__________________

__________________
FinallyRetired is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 03-08-2009, 08:42 AM   #2
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
dex's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 5,105
All we have is hope.
__________________

__________________
Sometimes death is not as tragic as not knowing how to live. This man knew how to live--and how to make others glad they were living. - Jack Benny at Nat King Cole's funeral
dex is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-08-2009, 09:17 AM   #3
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 131
Don't be silly.
__________________
Architect is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-08-2009, 09:17 AM   #4
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
RonBoyd's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Denver, Colorado
Posts: 5,280
Quote:
Originally Posted by dex View Post
all we have is hope.
Hope.jpg

Hope - Eternity.jpg
__________________
"It's tough to make predictions, especially when it involves the future." ~Attributed to many
"In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice. But, in practice, there is." ~(perhaps by) Yogi Berra
"Those who have knowledge, don't predict. Those who predict, don't have knowledge."~ Lau tzu
RonBoyd is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-08-2009, 02:03 PM   #5
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Leonidas's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2006
Location: Where the stars at night are big and bright
Posts: 2,847
Quote:
Originally Posted by dex View Post
All we have is hope.
That and $5 will get you a latte at Starbucks.
Quote:
Hopefulness is somewhat different from optimism in that hope is an emotional state, whereas optimism is a conclusion reached through a deliberate thought pattern that leads to a positive attitude.
The more people that say they see signs of the bottom the more I worry that we're going deeper, farther and longer.
__________________
There is no pleasure in having nothing to do; the fun is having lots to do and not doing it. - Andrew Jackson
Leonidas is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-08-2009, 02:14 PM   #6
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 312
I've given up trying to divine "capitulation" or other signs of a bottom. Certainly, book or magazine covers, etc., won't do it for me. It's almost certain that we'll only know the bottom in hindsight, months or years after it was in.
__________________
Grep is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-09-2009, 01:32 PM   #7
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
REWahoo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas Hill Country
Posts: 42,142
Top 10 headlines that could signal a market bottom

Some serious, some not...
  • A significant (more than 10%) one- or two-day drop in the market.
  • Timothy Geithner is replaced with Paul Volcker.
  • The 100th day of a bankruptcy by General Motors Corp.
  • Gold at $2,000 an ounce.
  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average changes more than two names at the same time, and/or adds names to increase the overall number of stocks in the index.
  • New York Stock Exchange daily volume drops to 1 billion shares for 30 sessions in a row.
  • One million jobs lost in a month.
  • Stock market favorites see 15% to 20% declines.
  • CNBC goes off the air.
I think the author omitted one: 2B purchases a variable annuity.
__________________
Numbers is hard

When I hit 70, it hit back

Retired in 2005 at age 58, no pension
REWahoo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-09-2009, 01:46 PM   #8
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Dawg52's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Central MS/Orange Beach, AL
Posts: 7,445
Quote:
Originally Posted by REWahoo View Post
Top 10 headlines that could signal a market bottom

Some serious, some not....
  • CNBC goes off the air.
My favorite.
__________________
Retired 3/31/2007@52
Full time wuss.......
Dawg52 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-09-2009, 01:51 PM   #9
Dryer sheet aficionado
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 29
Use of psychology to measure bottoms is useless. Gloominess is trailing, not leading. Of course psychology will be at its most gloomy when a bottom is reached, and this can only be determined in hindsight. If the market drops further, the effect will be that we'll get even more gloomy.

There were a lot of articles trumpeting the end of capitalism at the 9500 mark, too.
__________________
Cruising2022 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-09-2009, 02:03 PM   #10
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Kansas City
Posts: 7,409
Hmmm - I get back from the the old doughnut shop a little while ago and CNBC has a blurb about the 40% of stocks that have advanced since the Nov low.

It's those silly ole financials that are masking recovery. We need to buy high tech among other things.

Whoopeee! I'm gonna switch over to the classic movie channel and see if Shirley Temple is tap dancing thru the Great Depression - old time movie wise.

heh heh heh - Hope those Vanguard computers rebalancing my Target Retirement on full auto haven't missed anybody. .
__________________
unclemick is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 03-09-2009, 02:22 PM   #11
Moderator
ziggy29's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Texas
Posts: 15,613
The problem is that the stock market is BECOMING the financial mess, and not just reflecting it. I don't believe government policy should generally try to prop up stock prices but we are reaching a point where it is becoming every bit as much of the economic/financial death spiral as housing and the banks.

Every day the market believes the policymakers are clueless and rudderless is another day that's likely to be another down day amidst continuing uncertainty, is another day retirements bust, pensions fail and cities and states teeter closer to the brink. The market isn't just a by-product of the economy; it is increasingly becoming a driver of the economic nightmare.
__________________
"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)

RIP to Reemy, my avatar dog (2003 - 9/16/2017)
ziggy29 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-09-2009, 03:53 PM   #12
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
dex's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2003
Posts: 5,105
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cruising2022 View Post
Use of psychology to measure bottoms is useless. Gloominess is trailing, not leading. Of course psychology will be at its most gloomy when a bottom is reached, and this can only be determined in hindsight. If the market drops further, the effect will be that we'll get even more gloomy.
It depends upon who you are measuring. Take a look at IBD Bull/Bear index or
AAII
AAII BEARS
__________________
Sometimes death is not as tragic as not knowing how to live. This man knew how to live--and how to make others glad they were living. - Jack Benny at Nat King Cole's funeral
dex is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-09-2009, 04:36 PM   #13
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 7,532
I'm really disappointed. A thread title like this, and no one has posted any signs containing any bottoms yet? A quick google image search of "sign of a bottom" reveals a few potential candidates.
__________________
FUEGO is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-09-2009, 05:27 PM   #14
Moderator
MichaelB's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Rocky Inlets
Posts: 24,492
Quote:
Originally Posted by FUEGO View Post
I'm really disappointed. A thread title like this, and no one has posted any signs containing any bottoms yet? A quick google image search of "sign of a bottom" reveals a few potential candidates.
Is this what you have in mind?
Attached Images
File Type: jpg sign.jpg (28.8 KB, 10 views)
__________________
MichaelB is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-09-2009, 05:30 PM   #15
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
REWahoo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas Hill Country
Posts: 42,142
That's it! Market rally tomorrow!
__________________
Numbers is hard

When I hit 70, it hit back

Retired in 2005 at age 58, no pension
REWahoo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-09-2009, 06:57 PM   #16
Moderator
ziggy29's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Texas
Posts: 15,613
The surest sign of a bottom is when people stop caring enough to look for it.
__________________
"Hey, for every ten dollars, that's another hour that I have to be in the work place. That's an hour of my life. And my life is a very finite thing. I have only 'x' number of hours left before I'm dead. So how do I want to use these hours of my life? Do I want to use them just spending it on more crap and more stuff, or do I want to start getting a handle on it and using my life more intelligently?" -- Joe Dominguez (1938 - 1997)

RIP to Reemy, my avatar dog (2003 - 9/16/2017)
ziggy29 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-09-2009, 07:33 PM   #17
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Posts: 424
Quote:
Originally Posted by Leonidas View Post
The more people that say they see signs of the bottom the more I worry that we're going deeper, farther and longer.
I really do see signs of a bottom.


j/k
__________________
JohnDoe is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-09-2009, 07:55 PM   #18
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 7,532
This was all I could find. It's not a sign of a bottom, but rather an ass.
Attached Images
File Type: jpg donkey.jpg (11.1 KB, 185 views)
__________________
FUEGO is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-10-2009, 09:34 AM   #19
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
RonBoyd's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Denver, Colorado
Posts: 5,280
CNN Alert: Dow surges more than 200 points after Citi says it was profitable in the first two months of 2009.

Pandit memo: Citi profitable in 2009

Bottom Sign?
__________________
"It's tough to make predictions, especially when it involves the future." ~Attributed to many
"In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice. But, in practice, there is." ~(perhaps by) Yogi Berra
"Those who have knowledge, don't predict. Those who predict, don't have knowledge."~ Lau tzu
RonBoyd is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-10-2009, 09:57 AM   #20
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
MasterBlaster's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,359
Quote:
Originally Posted by RonBoyd View Post
CNN Alert: Dow surges more than 200 points after Citi says it was profitable in the first two months of 2009.

Pandit memo: Citi profitable in 2009

Bottom Sign?

Or a bear market rally ? Check out this DOW chart from the 20-30's.

Look at all of those rallys on the way down.

__________________

__________________
MasterBlaster is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Sign of the Times? Independent FIRE and Money 23 12-22-2008 09:45 AM
What's your sign? bright eyed Other topics 89 08-02-2008 02:26 PM
A sign of the times? UncleHoney Other topics 0 06-02-2008 08:42 PM
After college, why sign up for the military? Orchidflower Other topics 81 10-13-2007 08:39 PM
Do you sign your CC? mickeyd Other topics 19 09-03-2006 10:08 AM

 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 03:47 PM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.