A sign of a bottom

[FinallyRetired]

The Wall Street Journal Guide to the End of Wall Street as We Know It: What You Need to Know About the Greatest Financial Crisis of Our Time--and How to Survive It
by Dave Kansas

Recommeded by Michelle Singletary in today's Washington Post. Here's the Amazon link:
http://www.amazon.com/Wall-Street-Journal-Guide-Time/dp/0061788406

Books like this might indicate we're close to the bottom, in the same way as Glasman's Dow 36,000: The New Strategy for Profiting from the Coming Rise in the Stock Market was a sign of the top. Remember that one?
http://www.amazon.com/Dow-36-000-St...=sr_1_2?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1236517845&sr=1-2

 

[dex]

All we have is hope.

 

[Architect]

Don't be silly.

 

[RonBoyd]

all we have is hope.

 

[Leonidas]

All we have is hope.

That and $5 will get you a latte at Starbucks.

Hopefulness is somewhat different from optimism in that hope is an emotional state, whereas optimism is a conclusion reached through a deliberate thought pattern that leads to a positive attitude.

The more people that say they see signs of the bottom the more I worry that we're going deeper, farther and longer.

 

[Grep]

I've given up trying to divine "capitulation" or other signs of a bottom. Certainly, book or magazine covers, etc., won't do it for me. It's almost certain that we'll only know the bottom in hindsight, months or years after it was in.

 

[REWahoo]

Top 10 headlines that could signal a market bottom

Some serious, some not...

• A significant (more than 10%) one- or two-day drop in the market.
• Timothy Geithner is replaced with Paul Volcker.
• The 100th day of a bankruptcy by General Motors Corp.
• Gold at $2,000 an ounce.
• The Dow Jones Industrial Average changes more than two names at the same time, and/or adds names to increase the overall number of stocks in the index.
• New York Stock Exchange daily volume drops to 1 billion shares for 30 sessions in a row.
• One million jobs lost in a month.
• Stock market favorites see 15% to 20% declines.
• CNBC goes off the air.

I think the author omitted one: 2B purchases a variable annuity.

 

[Dawg52]

Top 10 headlines that could signal a market bottom

Some serious, some not....

• CNBC goes off the air.

My favorite.

 

[Cruising2022]

Use of psychology to measure bottoms is useless. Gloominess is trailing, not leading. Of course psychology will be at its most gloomy when a bottom is reached, and this can only be determined in hindsight. If the market drops further, the effect will be that we'll get even more gloomy.

There were a lot of articles trumpeting the end of capitalism at the 9500 mark, too.

 

[unclemick]

Hmmm - I get back from the the old doughnut shop a little while ago and CNBC has a blurb about the 40% of stocks that have advanced since the Nov low.

It's those silly ole financials that are masking recovery. We need to buy high tech among other things.

Whoopeee! I'm gonna switch over to the classic movie channel and see if Shirley Temple is tap dancing thru the Great Depression - old time movie wise.

heh heh heh - Hope those Vanguard computers rebalancing my Target Retirement on full auto haven't missed anybody. .

 

[ziggy29]

The problem is that the stock market is BECOMING the financial mess, and not just reflecting it. I don't believe government policy should generally try to prop up stock prices but we are reaching a point where it is becoming every bit as much of the economic/financial death spiral as housing and the banks.

Every day the market believes the policymakers are clueless and rudderless is another day that's likely to be another down day amidst continuing uncertainty, is another day retirements bust, pensions fail and cities and states teeter closer to the brink. The market isn't just a by-product of the economy; it is increasingly becoming a driver of the economic nightmare.

 

[dex]

Use of psychology to measure bottoms is useless. Gloominess is trailing, not leading. Of course psychology will be at its most gloomy when a bottom is reached, and this can only be determined in hindsight. If the market drops further, the effect will be that we'll get even more gloomy.

It depends upon who you are measuring. Take a look at IBD Bull/Bear index or
AAII
AAII BEARS

 

[FUEGO]

I'm really disappointed. A thread title like this, and no one has posted any signs containing any bottoms yet? A quick google image search of "sign of a bottom" reveals a few potential candidates.

 

[MichaelB]

I'm really disappointed. A thread title like this, and no one has posted any signs containing any bottoms yet? A quick google image search of "sign of a bottom" reveals a few potential candidates.

Is this what you have in mind?

 

[REWahoo]

That's it! Market rally tomorrow!

 

[ziggy29]

The surest sign of a bottom is when people stop caring enough to look for it.

 

[JohnDoe]

The more people that say they see signs of the bottom the more I worry that we're going deeper, farther and longer.

I really do see signs of a bottom.


j/k

 

[FUEGO]

This was all I could find. It's not a sign of a bottom, but rather an ass.

 

[RonBoyd]

CNN Alert: Dow surges more than 200 points after Citi says it was profitable in the first two months of 2009.

Pandit memo: Citi profitable in 2009

Bottom Sign?

 

[MasterBlaster]

CNN Alert: Dow surges more than 200 points after Citi says it was profitable in the first two months of 2009.

Pandit memo: Citi profitable in 2009

Bottom Sign?

Or a bear market rally ? Check out this DOW chart from the 20-30's.

Look at all of those rallys on the way down.

 

[RonBoyd]

Or a bear market rally ?

Oh! I meant the Citi rumor not the stock surge -- there have been so many of those I have become immune to their presence.

 

[mexmeme]

Want a bottom? I'll give you a bottom

We sold to cash yesterday, and today the DOW is up over 300 pts. Now I call that a bottom.

 

[Kwirk]

That's it! Market rally tomorrow!

Up ~5% so far. I may just start listening a little more closely to you.

 

[Kwirk]

Or a bear market rally ? Check out this DOW chart from the 20-30's.

Looks like I should start buying when the market is off peak by 80% or so.

 

[HFWR]

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