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Actuaries Longevity Illustrator
Old 07-10-2019, 09:22 AM   #1
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Actuaries Longevity Illustrator

I came to this website from my employer's 401k retirement planning page.


Just another predictor of your longevity with some good visuals:


http://www.longevityillustrator.org/Profile?m=1


Mod edit: *Subject should be: Actuaries Longevity Illustrator
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Old 07-10-2019, 10:32 AM   #2
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Good graphics. Thanks.
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Old 07-10-2019, 10:35 AM   #3
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Interesting tool. I've seen this before.

My life expectancy (50% chance) is 86, DW is 89 and a 50% chance is that one or the other of use will live to be 92.

Given that SS crossover at 0% return is ~82 and at some return is later than 82, I am still comfortable with my decision to wait until 65, FRA or 70 to start SS.
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Old 07-10-2019, 10:40 AM   #4
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Interesting. Gives both of us about a 55% chance of reaching 85 which is why I'm taking restricted now and my own at 70.
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Old 07-10-2019, 11:48 AM   #5
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Both retired and have an 89% shot at 80. DW has a 14% more chance of living to 95.
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Old 07-10-2019, 12:06 PM   #6
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The interesting thing to me is that I have nearly a 10% chance to live to be 100, but if I say here that I plan for the case where I live to 100 I'll probably get mocked by some people for "thinking that I'll live to 100" or some such poor misinterpretation. No matter to me, ~9% is a large enough possibility for me to be concerned about.
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Old 07-10-2019, 12:55 PM   #7
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My results show women live longer than men.
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Old 07-10-2019, 12:57 PM   #8
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My results show women live longer than men.
.
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It's not the years, honey. It's the mileage.
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Old 07-10-2019, 01:04 PM   #9
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Ahh, OK Indiana, I might be sweet, but I'm not your honey.
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Old 07-10-2019, 03:06 PM   #10
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I still think for many of us, this calculator is too general. These use more info and I suspect get you closer to a real number:
https://www.johnhancockinsurance.com...alculator.html
Lifespan Calculator – Test Your Life Expectancy || NM
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Old 07-11-2019, 05:09 AM   #11
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My results show women live longer than men.
That's well-known. Unfortunately, according to an article I read in an actuarial journal years ago, they tend to become frail and need more care at about the same age- so those extra years can be expensive ones.

I agree with Ian- it's VERY general. Family medical history, as well as your own, play a big part. If you say your health is less than optimal it can be anything from being a cancer survivor to suffering from allergies.
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Old 07-11-2019, 06:02 AM   #12
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If you say your health is less than optimal it can be anything from being a cancer survivor to suffering from allergies.
Hint: If you just suffer from allergies, don't select General Health = Poor in this tool.

"Please assess your own health in very general terms. Think in terms of comparing your state of health to that of other people the same age as you, rather than the health of the general population. For instance, a very fit 75-year-old might answer “excellent” if he or she is in very good health compared to other 75-year-olds. Similarly, if you are a smoker, compare your health to that of other smokers. You could rate yourself "excellent" if your health is much better than other smokers your age. You are free to revise your answer to see how it changes the results."
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Old 07-11-2019, 06:06 AM   #13
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These charts are just another motivator to be FIRE.
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DW and I are 58. FIRE August 2019 (previous goals were 2021 and 2020). Non-cola pension available but will remain untouched until mid sixties to grow, max SS for DH at FRA. Mega retiree health available. 401k is AA 35% stocks, 10% cash and 55% split between MM & T-Bills.
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Old 07-11-2019, 06:09 AM   #14
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These charts are just another motivator to be FIRE.


How so? What about these charts motivates you?
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Old 07-11-2019, 06:22 AM   #15
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How so? What about these charts motivates you?
Really - you don't grasp that time is greater than money?
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DW and I are 58. FIRE August 2019 (previous goals were 2021 and 2020). Non-cola pension available but will remain untouched until mid sixties to grow, max SS for DH at FRA. Mega retiree health available. 401k is AA 35% stocks, 10% cash and 55% split between MM & T-Bills.
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Old 07-11-2019, 07:02 AM   #16
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I still think for many of us, this calculator is too general. These use more info and I suspect get you closer to a real number:
https://www.johnhancockinsurance.com...alculator.html
Lifespan Calculator – Test Your Life Expectancy || NM
The first projects me at 94, the second at 85. Same answers. I'll believe #1.
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Old 07-11-2019, 09:07 AM   #17
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Our financial plan calls for DW to live to 95 (20% probability) without extra care. But we have decided to blow some dough because of the great returns we have earned since 2002.
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Old 07-11-2019, 09:51 AM   #18
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I still think for many of us, this calculator is too general. These use more info and I suspect get you closer to a real number:
https://www.johnhancockinsurance.com...alculator.html
Lifespan Calculator €“ Test Your Life Expectancy || NM
Yeah, a lot more realistic...late 70s for me, but mid 80s if I improve my lifestyle.

Relatively few males in my family have made it past their early 70s, & even if they did their quality of life was poor after age 75.

OTOH I can easily see my spouse making it to her 90s.
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Old 07-11-2019, 11:30 AM   #19
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It looks like I will have to increase our end of life plan. Currently it is at 100yrs. I see no benefit to being sure that you are >95% success rate of FIRE if the EOL used has only a 50% probability. I'd want a similar 95+% one life expectancy. I wonder what all those that are using 80 or 85 in the calculators think. There are many of us if I remember a lot of the threads correctly.
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Old 07-11-2019, 11:49 AM   #20
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It looks like I will have to increase our end of life plan. Currently it is at 100yrs. I see no benefit to being sure that you are >95% success rate of FIRE if the EOL used has only a 50% probability. I'd want a similar 95+% one life expectancy. I wonder what all those that are using 80 or 85 in the calculators think. There are many of us if I remember a lot of the threads correctly.
Same here. Its got both of us at late 90s!
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