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Actuaries Longevity Illustrator
07-10-2019, 09:22 AM
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#1
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Feb 2015
Posts: 217
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Actuaries Longevity Illustrator
I came to this website from my employer's 401k retirement planning page.
Just another predictor of your longevity with some good visuals:
http://www.longevityillustrator.org/Profile?m=1
Mod edit: *Subject should be: Actuaries Longevity Illustrator
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07-10-2019, 10:32 AM
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#2
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Atlanta Suburb
Posts: 1,499
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Good graphics. Thanks.
__________________
"Oh, twice as much ain't twice as good
And can't sustain like one half could
It's wanting more that's gonna send me to my knees" - John Mayer
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07-10-2019, 10:35 AM
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#3
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: Sarasota, FL & Vermont
Posts: 36,370
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Interesting tool. I've seen this before.
My life expectancy (50% chance) is 86, DW is 89 and a 50% chance is that one or the other of use will live to be 92.
Given that SS crossover at 0% return is ~82 and at some return is later than 82, I am still comfortable with my decision to wait until 65, FRA or 70 to start SS.
__________________
If something cannot endure laughter.... it cannot endure.
Patience is the art of concealing your impatience.
Slow and steady wins the race.
Retired Jan 2012 at age 56
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07-10-2019, 10:40 AM
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#4
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Apr 2011
Location: Madison
Posts: 1,337
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Interesting. Gives both of us about a 55% chance of reaching 85 which is why I'm taking restricted now and my own at 70.
__________________
Wild Bill shoulda taken more out of his IRA when he could have. . . .
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07-10-2019, 11:48 AM
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#5
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pacific latitude 20/49
Posts: 7,677
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Both retired and have an 89% shot at 80. DW has a 14% more chance of living to 95.
__________________
For the fun of it...Keith
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07-10-2019, 12:06 PM
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#6
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 13,227
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The interesting thing to me is that I have nearly a 10% chance to live to be 100, but if I say here that I plan for the case where I live to 100 I'll probably get mocked by some people for "thinking that I'll live to 100" or some such poor misinterpretation. No matter to me, ~9% is a large enough possibility for me to be concerned about.
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07-10-2019, 12:55 PM
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#7
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Aug 2017
Location: Champaign
Posts: 4,726
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My results show women live longer than men.
__________________
"Do not go where the path may lead, go instead where there is no path and leave a trail."
Ralph Waldo Emerson
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07-10-2019, 12:57 PM
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#8
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: Sarasota, FL & Vermont
Posts: 36,370
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 Quote:
Originally Posted by Rianne
My results show women live longer than men.
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Quote:
It's not the years, honey. It's the mileage.
- Indiana Jones
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07-10-2019, 01:04 PM
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#9
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Aug 2017
Location: Champaign
Posts: 4,726
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Ahh, OK Indiana, I might be sweet, but I'm not your honey. 
__________________
"Do not go where the path may lead, go instead where there is no path and leave a trail."
Ralph Waldo Emerson
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07-11-2019, 05:09 AM
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#11
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: May 2014
Posts: 7,373
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rianne
My results show women live longer than men.
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That's well-known. Unfortunately, according to an article I read in an actuarial journal years ago, they tend to become frail and need more care at about the same age- so those extra years can be expensive ones.
I agree with Ian- it's VERY general. Family medical history, as well as your own, play a big part. If you say your health is less than optimal it can be anything from being a cancer survivor to suffering from allergies.
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07-11-2019, 06:02 AM
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#12
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gone traveling
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 3,508
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Quote:
Originally Posted by athena53
If you say your health is less than optimal it can be anything from being a cancer survivor to suffering from allergies.
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Hint: If you just suffer from allergies, don't select General Health = Poor in this tool.
"Please assess your own health in very general terms. Think in terms of comparing your state of health to that of other people the same age as you, rather than the health of the general population. For instance, a very fit 75-year-old might answer “excellent” if he or she is in very good health compared to other 75-year-olds. Similarly, if you are a smoker, compare your health to that of other smokers. You could rate yourself "excellent" if your health is much better than other smokers your age. You are free to revise your answer to see how it changes the results."
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07-11-2019, 06:06 AM
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#13
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Mar 2016
Location: An island off the coast of Florida. (Ok - if you really need to know it's Vero Beach)
Posts: 633
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These charts are just another motivator to be FIRE.
__________________
DW and I are 62/62. 100% equities 31 years. FIRE'd August 2019. Non-cola pension cashed out Dec 2022 before segmentation rates reduced balance - rolled to MM fund, max SS for DH and DW at FRA. Mega retiree health available. IRA rollover from 401k Jan 2020 for NUA treatment. LTCG for 3 years. Next few years will be IRA cash withdrawals or until Stock Market recovers. AA 33% stocks, 67% MM and T-Bills. Rising equity glidepath.
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07-11-2019, 06:09 AM
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#14
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gone traveling
Join Date: Mar 2015
Posts: 3,508
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Quote:
Originally Posted by atmsmshr
These charts are just another motivator to be FIRE.
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How so? What about these charts motivates you?
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07-11-2019, 06:22 AM
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#15
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Mar 2016
Location: An island off the coast of Florida. (Ok - if you really need to know it's Vero Beach)
Posts: 633
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Really - you don't grasp that time is greater than money?
__________________
DW and I are 62/62. 100% equities 31 years. FIRE'd August 2019. Non-cola pension cashed out Dec 2022 before segmentation rates reduced balance - rolled to MM fund, max SS for DH and DW at FRA. Mega retiree health available. IRA rollover from 401k Jan 2020 for NUA treatment. LTCG for 3 years. Next few years will be IRA cash withdrawals or until Stock Market recovers. AA 33% stocks, 67% MM and T-Bills. Rising equity glidepath.
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07-11-2019, 07:02 AM
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#16
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 407
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__________________
I am willing to perform services in exchange for currency. For now.
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07-11-2019, 09:07 AM
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#17
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pacific latitude 20/49
Posts: 7,677
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Our financial plan calls for DW to live to 95 (20% probability) without extra care. But we have decided to blow some dough because of the great returns we have earned since 2002.
__________________
For the fun of it...Keith
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07-11-2019, 09:51 AM
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#18
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2017
Location: Western NC
Posts: 4,633
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ian S
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Yeah, a lot more realistic...late 70s for me, but mid 80s if I improve my lifestyle.
Relatively few males in my family have made it past their early 70s, & even if they did their quality of life was poor after age 75.
OTOH I can easily see my spouse making it to her 90s.
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07-11-2019, 11:30 AM
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#19
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Aug 2014
Location: Chicago West Burbs
Posts: 3,018
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It looks like I will have to increase our end of life plan. Currently it is at 100yrs. I see no benefit to being sure that you are >95% success rate of FIRE if the EOL used has only a 50% probability. I'd want a similar 95+% one life expectancy. I wonder what all those that are using 80 or 85 in the calculators think. There are many of us if I remember a lot of the threads correctly.
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07-11-2019, 11:49 AM
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#20
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Rio Grande Valley
Posts: 38,145
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CRLLS
It looks like I will have to increase our end of life plan. Currently it is at 100yrs. I see no benefit to being sure that you are >95% success rate of FIRE if the EOL used has only a 50% probability. I'd want a similar 95+% one life expectancy. I wonder what all those that are using 80 or 85 in the calculators think. There are many of us if I remember a lot of the threads correctly.
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Same here. It’s got both of us at late 90s!
__________________
Retired since summer 1999.
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