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Re: Adjusting withdrawals upwards
Old 05-01-2007, 10:21 AM   #41
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Re: Adjusting withdrawals upwards

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Originally Posted by Jarhead*

Currently first year is 3.7 and according to Firecalk, and RMD requirements,
following their program, I should live well past 100.
Yep, you can take it to the bank. The US govt. would never lie to you.

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Re: Adjusting withdrawals upwards
Old 05-01-2007, 11:01 AM   #42
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Re: Adjusting withdrawals upwards

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Originally Posted by Rich_in_Tampa
But then how do you explain what happens in the example I gave? SWR increases from 4% to 4%+X after a runup and a reset; then there's a long bear market, and your cherry-picked new, improved higher SWR represents a WR of 6% or more on your newly shrunken nest egg. If that bear lasts a while, you could get in trouble.
I'd explain that as an ER who started withdrawals in the 1960s. But FIRECalc's data would claim that 90% of the time there wouldn't be any problem with an extended 6% "S"WR. Of course that guy only has one chance to find out which side of the 90% he's on, and he still has to die on FIRECalc's schedule. Other than that, no worries!

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Originally Posted by Rich_in_Tampa
I think resetting is something that should be done infrequently, and should be balanced by resetting downwards if market conditions warrant. I wouldn't rely on the "fewer years to finance" too much, especially in earlier FIRE, personally.
I think that if I ramped up my spending I'd shorten my lifespan by "virtue" of the activities in which I'd be ramping up my spending.

And again I don't want to ever have one of those spouse conversations that starts with "Honey, FIRECalc says we need to reduce our spending."

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Originally Posted by Rich_in_Tampa
As long as there's some flexibility of expenses or willingess to belt-tighten it probably would work, but as a general rule, repeated upward-only resetting unbalanced by downward resetting seems require some caution. Fortunately, the ups usually outnumber the downs so we can get away with alot under customary markets.
Yes, because FIRECalc has a hard time with flexible spending so we can claim that we're smarter than the historical data.

One advantage to an ER budget category of gifting & charitable donations is that those can be the first cuts when the finances go south. So maybe the primary reason for adjusting withdrawals upward would be to make additional charitable donations (of course for tax deductions too).
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Re: Adjusting withdrawals upwards
Old 05-01-2007, 12:10 PM   #43
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Re: Adjusting withdrawals upwards

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rich_in_Tampa
Some have said in the past that since FC doesn't "know" what has happened in the past, resetting at any point is just fine -- FC just looks ahead and, after all, 4% is 4%. This is true on the face of it. However, you could make the same argument during down years-- FC applied during a down year using the amount derived from 4% of a prior UP year would give you less favorable results.
Jerryo said it right, "once the market events have ocurred, they've ocurred and are no longer "probablilities." If you start out with a 4% SWR at a 95% probability of success and the market goes down for 3 years, you are no longer at 95% probability of success. At this point you have additional knowledge - among the possible futures that were modeled you now know that you are not following any of the possible futures with good early years. So, as of today, if you keep up the spending you originally planned you are less than 95% likely to succeed. All you have to do is run the new numbers through Firecalc to figure out what the odds are.

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Originally Posted by Rich_in_Tampa
You either believe FC or you don't -- can't just believe it when the market's good and ignore it when the market's bad without assuming some additional failure risk.
Actually, you can choose to go with just the up side. It is just more likely that you will eventually end up on the down side. You will still probably be pretty safe - just not as safe as you think.
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Re: Adjusting withdrawals upwards
Old 05-01-2007, 01:32 PM   #44
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Re: Adjusting withdrawals upwards

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Originally Posted by Nords
Everybody talks about raising their SWR, but for what purpose?

If we're happy on our current SWR, then what more do we need?
Nords: Finally, a pony showed up.

If you are living where you want to be. (Hawaii aint bad) You're experienced enough in your own skin to know what is required money-wise to live the way you want to live, and your spouse (Or partner) agrees, you're "Golden".

I've tried to live by that philosophy since I "pulled the pin", and if my kids get lucky, more power to them. (Haven't missed much, and along the way I haven't contributed a whole helluva lot to "Madison Ave."

As far as I am concerned you can take your approach to the bank.

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Re: Adjusting withdrawals upwards
Old 05-01-2007, 01:42 PM   #45
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Re: Adjusting withdrawals upwards

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Originally Posted by Jarhead*
Nords: Finally, a pony showed up.

As far as I am concerned you can take your approach to the bank.

Holy Sugarbeets Batman!! I feel a big time relapse into:

"cheap bastardhood"

Now that I don't have any women to enourage my spending.

Gotta keep a grip - not getting any younger.

heh heh heh - mumble mumble :
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Re: Adjusting withdrawals upwards
Old 05-01-2007, 04:57 PM   #46
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Re: Adjusting withdrawals upwards

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Originally Posted by Jarhead*
If you are living where you want to be. (Hawaii aint bad)
Thanks, Jarhead. Are you just saying that because you've seen the golf courses?

Eight-foot-plus surf coming to the south shore tomorrow, right on schedule to open the season. Life is good!

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Originally Posted by unclemick2
Holy Sugarbeets Batman!! I feel a big time relapse into:
"cheap bastardhood"
Well, the Broadway version of "Lion King" is coming to Hawaii in Sep-Oct and we were required to purchase tickets. For this amount of money I believe that Timon & Pumba should be driving our stretch limo. But since it's my first visit to a theater in 20 years that didn't include Barney the Purple Dinosaur, I think we can splurge.

Quote:
Originally Posted by unclemick2
Now that I don't have any women to enourage my spending.
Gotta keep a grip - not getting any younger.
You never know. Put on your best Dickies, sign up for another cruise with maybe a side trip to Branson, let 'em feast their eyes on your pickup-- anything could happen!

Or at least it could if you weren't 14 years old and stuck in Missoula...
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Re: Adjusting withdrawals upwards
Old 05-01-2007, 07:31 PM   #47
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Re: Adjusting withdrawals upwards

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Originally Posted by Nords
Well, the Broadway version of "Lion King" is coming to Hawaii in Sep-Oct and we were required to purchase tickets. For this amount of money I believe that Timon & Pumba should be driving our stretch limo. But since it's my first visit to a theater in 20 years that didn't include Barney the Purple Dinosaur, I think we can splurge.
We saw it last summer. It's worth every single cent. Get seats near the aisle on the floor if you can (you'll understand when you get there).
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Re: Adjusting withdrawals upwards
Old 05-01-2007, 07:59 PM   #48
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Re: Adjusting withdrawals upwards

Just seen the shortened show at Disney World of the Lion King. Damned if it wasn't near the best thing about the place. Really well done.
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Re: Adjusting withdrawals upwards
Old 05-01-2007, 08:21 PM   #49
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Re: Adjusting withdrawals upwards

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Originally Posted by OKLibrarian
We saw it last summer. It's worth every single cent. Get seats near the aisle on the floor if you can (you'll understand when you get there).
Ruh-roh, I've been on the floor/aisle at Gallagher shows and that's not a good thing!

We're way in the back of the orchestra (ground floor) a few seats away from the aisle, and those are the "cheap seats" ($100/person). More importantly, six hours after the box office opened for a six-week run, they were the available seats.
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Re: Adjusting withdrawals upwards
Old 05-01-2007, 08:26 PM   #50
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Re: Adjusting withdrawals upwards

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Originally Posted by Nords
Ruh-roh, I've been on the floor/aisle at Gallagher shows and that's not a good thing!
We were ok until he smacked that f-ing jello...
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Re: Adjusting withdrawals upwards
Old 05-01-2007, 10:26 PM   #51
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Re: Adjusting withdrawals upwards

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nords
Ruh-roh, I've been on the floor/aisle at Gallagher shows and that's not a good thing!

We're way in the back of the orchestra (ground floor) a few seats away from the aisle, and those are the "cheap seats" ($100/person). More importantly, six hours after the box office opened for a six-week run, they were the available seats.
They were in Tulsa for a month, and we had a similar experience. Our seats were also toward the back of the orchestra, and we had a great view.

And I promise nobody will be exploding melons during the show.
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