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All Weather Portfolio
Old 10-11-2006, 10:12 AM   #1
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All Weather Portfolio

Just thinking down the road a bit...

So what would be a good portfolio to have that could survive/thrive after a small number of nuclear devices are detonated in major American cities ?
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Re: All Weather Portfolio
Old 10-11-2006, 10:14 AM   #2
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Re: All Weather Portfolio

Quote:
Originally Posted by MasterBlaster
So what would be a good portfolio to have that could survive/thrive after a small number of nuclear devices are detonated in major American cities ?
Maybe one heavily weighted towards lead?

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Re: All Weather Portfolio
Old 10-11-2006, 10:22 AM   #3
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Re: All Weather Portfolio

Waste Managment
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Re: All Weather Portfolio
Old 10-11-2006, 10:26 AM   #4
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Re: All Weather Portfolio

Canned goods & fuel.
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Re: All Weather Portfolio
Old 10-11-2006, 10:33 AM   #5
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Re: All Weather Portfolio

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bobot
Canned goods & fuel.
Bottled water...........water purification stocks, companies that sell radiation suits.etc...........
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Re: All Weather Portfolio
Old 10-11-2006, 10:33 AM   #6
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Re: All Weather Portfolio

Quote:
Originally Posted by REWahoo!
Maybe one heavily weighted towards lead?

Like Smith&Wesson?
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Re: All Weather Portfolio
Old 10-11-2006, 10:48 AM   #7
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Re: All Weather Portfolio

Quote:
Originally Posted by MasterBlaster
Just thinking down the road a bit...

So what would be a good portfolio to have that could survive/thrive after a small number of nuclear devices are detonated in major American cities ?
I'm not a survivalist by any measure, but if several major American cities were hit with dirty nuclear explosions, I would assume little value to most "paper" investments for some time. With many millions dead and everyone else scrambling to get out from under the radiation clouds, financial markets would most likely be down. Government would likely be seizing resources as necessary and there would be little systematic operation of society as we know it today.

Sadly, a portfolio consisting of a rural location with a well stocked fallout shelter and means to defend yourself would have a lot of merit.

I'm not opting for that..........and I'm sure as hell hoping I'm right!
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Re: All Weather Portfolio
Old 10-11-2006, 11:57 AM   #8
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Re: All Weather Portfolio

I was in France last month and took a tour of a champagne house - they (and many of the other champagne houses there) had these large caves that had been dug for mining purposes 1000s of years ago. Anyway, the reason they used them for champagne was that the caves stayed at 10 degrees centigrade all the time, no matter what the weather was. I started considering buying one - in the event of global warming we could live there! They'd probably work for nuclear protection too since they are underground and surrounded by stone.

So, my vote for the "all weather" portfolio is a french champagne house!
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Re: All Weather Portfolio
Old 10-11-2006, 01:10 PM   #9
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Re: All Weather Portfolio

From the limited reading I have done on the "dirty bomb" in an urban area, the actual area affected would likely be fairly small, with most contamination contained by the large buildings in the area. If you are outside that limited area, life would probably go on like normal. Much of the data on the dangers of radioactivity to a population are based on post WW2 studies in Japan, and there is some indication from the post-Chernobyl cleanup that the expectations based on the japanese experience may overstate the dangers.
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Re: All Weather Portfolio
Old 10-11-2006, 01:17 PM   #10
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Re: All Weather Portfolio

Taking the original question seriously, at least a little.

Suppose one small nuclear bomb goes off in the US, devastating part of a major city. Also suppose you are not directly affected by the blast or radiation. Then, as I see the OP's question: What's the US/world economy going to look like in this future? Far more intrusive security, intensive policing, military buildups. Roadblocks to international travel and trade. So -- invest more in military and security stocks? Less in international?

If a large scale nuclear attack happens, the financial world is screwed, and that is the least of your worries (living near DC, I'm mostly likely dead after a large scale attack). Even in the small scale case, a few weeks worth of food and water purifiers might be necessary, as the supply chain may break down for a little while as the nation grapples with the ripple effects of a disaster.

A lot depends on the scenario. Historically, what would you have wanted to hold before WW1, say? Spread your wealth around amongst various countries, hoping that you'd own something in a victor? So who will be the (relative) victor after your chosen scenario? Maybe the right to emigrate to Australia would be the most valuable thing you could own.
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Re: All Weather Portfolio
Old 10-11-2006, 01:20 PM   #11
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Re: All Weather Portfolio

precious metals would go through the roof
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Re: All Weather Portfolio
Old 10-11-2006, 02:00 PM   #12
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Re: All Weather Portfolio


Maybe a more interesting - well, hopefully (?) more likely - question is what
would be a good portfolio for a global influenza pandemic ?
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Re: All Weather Portfolio
Old 10-11-2006, 02:20 PM   #13
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Re: All Weather Portfolio

Quote:
Originally Posted by MasterBlaster
So what would be a good portfolio to have that could survive/thrive after a small number of nuclear devices are detonated in major American cities ?
Quote:
Originally Posted by JohnEyles
Maybe a more interesting - well, hopefully (?) more likely - question is what
would be a good portfolio for a global influenza pandemic ?
Shorting insurance-company stocks, movie theaters, amusement parks, and other big entertainment firms.

Buying Hawaii real estate, homebuilders, security firms, water-supply & -purification companies, & hazardous-waste treatment firms. iRobot (maker of Roomba and other remotely operated equipment).

Medical-supply companies-- the boring stuff like facemasks, gloves, toiletries, & sterile absorbent pads.

Mortuaries & cemeteries (like Stonemore Partners).

I'd have to read up on Chernobyl and other explosion disasters to figure out what else would benefit. I'd also sit down with spouse for a long discussion on PACOM's pandemic influenza planning and figure out where the federal money would be going...
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Re: All Weather Portfolio
Old 10-11-2006, 06:01 PM   #14
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Re: All Weather Portfolio

DUCT TAPE....... Wrap it over your nose and mouth, this way you can suffocate and be spared being a human fireball.
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Re: All Weather Portfolio
Old 10-11-2006, 09:59 PM   #15
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Re: All Weather Portfolio

Interesting discussion. Many of the suggested products (e.g. face masks, rubber gloves) would undoubtedly be in demand. But from an investment perspective there are not a lot of pure plays that you could invest in. Most products are just a tiny piece of some huge corporation. Any one product or even one product line is usually not a significant contributor to a large corporation's bottom line. To really pay off in the scenario under discussion you would have to find a small publicly traded company with a product that contributes in a major way to total profits. Good luck.

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Re: All Weather Portfolio
Old 10-12-2006, 07:21 AM   #16
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Re: All Weather Portfolio

Quote:
Originally Posted by Robert the Red
Maybe the right to emigrate to Australia would be the most valuable thing you could own.
Hmmm. I'm eligible for Irish citizenship, maybe I should apply. But I live in DC so I will never make the plane.

I'll just buy the duck tape.
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Re: All Weather Portfolio
Old 10-12-2006, 09:08 AM   #17
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Re: All Weather Portfolio

Believe it or not the question is a serious one.

For those in the know, a few (relatively) low-yield A-bombs detonated in major cities will cause havac and kill thosands maybe millions...

However it won't be the end of life for the survivors. The US will go on believe it or not.

I guess the question and comment is that this scenario seems at least somewhat likely and that we perhaps should keep that in mind. There is no guarantee that your investment portfolio will be sufficient under unusual circumstances.
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Re: All Weather Portfolio
Old 10-12-2006, 09:33 AM   #18
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Re: All Weather Portfolio

See INVESTMENT IN SURVIVAL by Kurt Saxon (c) 1980
http://www.textfiles.com/survival/invest

I think his predictions were off.
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Re: All Weather Portfolio
Old 10-12-2006, 03:10 PM   #19
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Re: All Weather Portfolio

IMHO portfolio survival will not be relevent.

Part of my ER plan is off grid living, 2 years food and supplie stored, solar, wind and hydropower, ability to grow my own food and repair my own gear, means to protect all of it. Still no guarentee of survival, but I think that is the best I can do. Sure is better then depending on some paper/electronic stock and bond portfolio to bail you you out.
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Re: All Weather Portfolio
Old 10-12-2006, 03:27 PM   #20
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Re: All Weather Portfolio

A big short term money maker would be one of those funds that shorts the S&P 500 or something. Maybe leveraged 2x or whatever. Rydex? I forget who pushes that filth.

Also, anything not US. International funds baby!

Are you up to something and wondering where to put your cash?

-CC
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