Alternatives to the Stock Market

[roger r]

Personally, if I truely belived the stock market was headed for 3000 I'd be fully invested in US issued securities. All of the markets are inter-dependent to some degree and if stocks take that big of a tumble I would expect corp bonds, global markets, and real estate to correlate to some degree. I guess you could look into inelastic markets of goods and services like mortuaries or maybe breweries. Things that people will always need.

[calmloki]

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Originally Posted by roger r ..... goods and services like mortuaries or maybe breweries. Things that people will always need.

And today, on As the Thread Turns.... I just found out that there is a consumer's alliance for burial. Check out this site for your state affiliate. Always look for the "org" at the end of a URL to help assure yourself of a true aid organization. Getcher self planted on the cheap.

FCA is a nonprofit federation of consumer organizations dedicated to ensuring consumers can choose a meaningful, dignified, and affordable funeral

[Bikerdude]

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Originally Posted by rsingh6675 I have some shares of RBSpS. They haven't paid dividend this quarter. Does anyone know if they are going to pay or they have eliminated the preferred dividend?

No dividend for the next 2 years. Did you get the buyout offer?

[eengr86]

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Originally Posted by utrecht I don't care if unemployment hits 15%, we start a war with China, California drops into the Pacific Ocean and inflation doubles....the Dow still isn't going down to 3000.

Are you an eternal optimist or just a Ouija board believer? I think we have seen changes in the world in the last 10 years that rule out the last 50 years of strategies for the stock market. The cheese has moved IMHO.

[DallasGuy]

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Originally Posted by utrecht I don't care if unemployment hits 15%, we start a war with China, California drops into the Pacific Ocean and inflation doubles....the Dow still isn't going down to 3000.

How about DOW 5000? Found this on Yahoo Finance today. The guy seems somewhat believable and there seems to be an overabundance of bad news these days.

get out while you can! dow headed to 5000 charles nenner says: Tech Ticker, Yahoo! Finance=

[brewer12345]

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Originally Posted by Unconventional How about direct investment in a small business that gives you are partnership like deal and lets you participate on the cash flow. Getting a piece of cash flow is sure more than any company pays in dividend, plus a small business is valued close to asset value (depends on the time you get in), not 20 times over that. I have a portfolio of those and the monthly cash flow from that outpaces anything I was ever able to get done in my brokerage account.

How are you sourcing and evaluating these opportunities? How do you avoid control issues, assuming you are a minority partner not running the business? How much are you puttting in each investment?

[RonBoyd]

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Originally Posted by Unconventional How about direct investment in a small business that gives you are partnership like deal and lets you participate on the cash flow. Getting a piece of cash flow is sure more than any company pays in dividend, plus a small business is valued close to asset value (depends on the time you get in), not 20 times over that. I have a portfolio of those and the monthly cash flow from that outpaces anything I was ever able to get done in my brokerage account.

I simple terms: Become a Venture Capitalist.

[HornedToad10]

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Originally Posted by eengr86 Are you an eternal optimist or just a Ouija board believer? I think we have seen changes in the world in the last 10 years that rule out the last 50 years of strategies for the stock market. The cheese has moved IMHO.

Lol. If the cheese has moved then the stock market might stay at 8-10k for the next 50 years. Which is also catastrophic, but the Dow isn't going to 3k. If it does, then you should be investing in food, machine guns, and gas/oil.

[haha]

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Originally Posted by brewer12345 How do you avoid control issues, assuming you are a minority partner not running the business?

It seems to me that a minority owner in a small business occupies the same position as does a centipede in the life of a wasp.

Ha

[HornedToad10]

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Originally Posted by Unconventional for 40 years 70 mio baby boomers put their money into 401Ks and now they need that money to pay the bills. Many will pull every thing out over the next 7 - 10 years. Newer generations are not saving as much anymore. In my humble opinion the market dynamics have changed. Anybody try to measure that and make a prediction. I say, down or stagnation is a very likely scenario.

401ks have only existed for around ~27-28 years and have only been popular for around ~20 years. Before that it was pensions. I'm expecting returns to be lower domestically. Hopefully that will be made up on the international side. But ~3-4% real domestically versus previous 6-8% real. I expect the stock market to at least match the inflation rate over the next 40 years.

As before, I think DOW 3000 is pretty much World War 3 level apocolypse


401k History - Wikipdeia
In the mid-1980s, there were fewer than 8 million participants with less than $100 billion of assets in 401(k) plans.[5] By 2006, there were seventy-million participants with more than $3 trillion of assets in 401(k) plans.[5] There were 438,000 companies sponsoring 401(k) plans in 2003.[4]

[brewer12345]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Unconventional for 40 years 70 mio baby boomers put their money into 401Ks and now they need that money to pay the bills. Many will pull every thing out over the next 7 - 10 years. Newer generations are not saving as much anymore. In my humble opinion the market dynamics have changed. Anybody try to measure that and make a prediction. I say, down or stagnation is a very likely scenario.

So we have capital controls on on cross border investing in the US now?

[youbet]

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Originally Posted by eengr86 Exactly... It will be interesting where the market will end up by the end of the year.

I've been investing for about 45 yrs. Every year has been "interesting." Pleasantly interesting and otherwise..........

The comments being made about passive vs active investing are very interesting. Personnally, I've avoided active investing all my life and acheived reasonable returns (despite zillions of mistakes blended in) but passive investing is likely to be tough in the immediate future as investors ask the same question as OP: where can I get decent real returns with a minumum of risk?