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Re: Am I ready to be FIREd?
Old 03-15-2005, 06:47 PM   #41
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 1,318
Re: Am I ready to be FIREd?

ESRBob, I'll be looking up your past posts to see further explanations on your withdrawal method--thanks.

I am still in the accumulation phase, with a long way to go. Sometimes, I feel like an ant carrying a few grains of sand each trip in an effort to build a mountain. So I have not begun thinking much about withdrawal strategies.

Flipstress, sorry I've been away a few days. Here is the study I used to give me confidence on this withdrawal method. Then I got the author to custom-make me some new studies using a more balanced 50-50 stock-bond portfolio with value and small tilts, and the numbers came out really strongly supporting something like a 4.3% withdrawal rate with a 90%+ historical probability (over 75 years of historical data) of keeping real value intact over 30 and 40 year periods. In the 10% or so of cases that 'failed', the real value was only about 10% below its starting value, which means you still had plenty of money, but just not quite as much (in real terms) as you started with. Not great, but a long way from the poor house, either.

Here is the link to keith marbach's original study -- btw he worked with the Trinity folks, and also does work for foundations looking to keep an endowment paying out safely in perpetuity. Basically that is what this method mimics -- that of an endowment seeking to keep itself going like this forever == not a bad long term goal for an ER hoping to live to 100!

ER for 10 years; living off 4.3% of savings (and a few book royalties ;-)
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