Alan Greenspan:
The sizable gains in consumer spending of recent years have been accompanied by a drop in the personal saving rate to an average of only 1 percent over 2004--a very low figure relative to the nearly 7 percent rate averaged over the previous three decades.
If you'll recall, pundits at the time were pointing out that this figure didn't include pensions and that home equity may be a reasonable alternative counter to "traditional" savings.
If we've propped up the economy with consumer spending fueled by home equity loans, and those loans are in trouble, then we're going to see some interesting times ahead.
I've been learning that it doesn't take a 100% loss to move something to be very uncomfortable. Some interesting stats on Houston's jump to 10%+ unemployment bear that out. OPEC's 25% production cut in 1973 was enough to really hurt here. Granted, 25% is still a lot, but the effect here seemed much more pronounced (but then, I'm not old enough to have been around then, history may be painting a bleak picture)
I give you three alternate predictions:
We "correct" (wildly crash) south of the mean. We enter a bear market. Hopefully tighter money will get us to refocus our values. After several dismal years we start to ramp up into a bull market again.
or, the whole house of cards comes crashing down. Foreign lenders demand that we restructure our debt. Oil is repriced in Euros. This all completely wipes out the US economic infrastructure. Then peak oil is finally realized by everyone. Much wailing and gnashing of teeth... until the bird flu pandemic comes along and suddenly there's a lot fewer of us.
Fed drops the interest rates in a hope to "engineer a soft bounce". Everything continues on as normal.
I'm not betting on anything... continue to grow cash on hand, continue to dollar cost average into index funds that I feel happy owning, and continue to sleep at night comfortable in the fact that, if I'm out on the street, I'll probably be in good company.