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Analysis Paralysis?
Old 02-10-2019, 08:20 PM   #1
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Analysis Paralysis?

Help! Iím sitting here Sunday night with stomach churning about w*rk tomorrow and dealing with a major problem. My bucket is overflowing!

I would love to retire at the end of the year (62) and be done. Iíve run FIDO planner multiple times and get a score of 110 and with FIRECalc a 98% cycle success rate. My assumptions err on the pessimistic side; 3.5% inflation, 20% SS haircut, 4% market return.... I believe I have done my homework but get stuck in analysis and whether I should slog through another year.

Have any of you struggled with the same and what was your ďah haĒ moment. For any of you that had this same struggle and took the plunge...any insights?

Thanks to all!
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Old 02-10-2019, 08:55 PM   #2
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Not sure I had an ah ha moment, but my BS bucket got so full and I was so sick of Sunday Night Terrors that I waited until bonuses were paid last Spring and gave notice the next day. What a relief! I gave 6 months notice and wouldn't recommend that. It was rough. Good luck to you. What will you do for health insurance until Medicare?
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Old 02-10-2019, 09:00 PM   #3
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Not sure I had an ah ha moment, but my BS bucket got so full and I was so sick of Sunday Night Terrors that I waited until bonuses were paid last Spring and gave notice the next day. What a relief! I gave 6 months notice and wouldn't recommend that. It was rough. Good luck to you. What will you do for health insurance until Medicare?


Option 1 is a company subsidized health plan. Not the best;$8k deductible with 30% copay afterward.
Option #2. ACA and managing income to a low enough level to get tax credit.
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Old 02-10-2019, 09:02 PM   #4
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I expect many of us have been there. I retired on the very first day I was eligible for my full pension and health insurance. I could not take it any longer where I w*rked. My BS bucket had been overflowing for some time. My calculations showed we would be OK if we were careful. But then I started consulting and have done far, far better at that then I ever imagined, so now I am no longer concerned. Our finances are now in good shape. Sometimes it's just a leap of faith.
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Old 02-10-2019, 10:32 PM   #5
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We were not nearly as conservative as you are. That said if you are running FireCalc you should not just run it suggested a constant 4% return. You should run it using the historical information that it uses to run different cycles.
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Old 02-10-2019, 11:20 PM   #6
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i created a spreadsheet 3-yrs before i pulled the plug at age 55. i entered average bills, medical expenses, COBRA insurance premiums for 10-yrs, etc, used 5% annual inflation, got estimates from pension plan and SS and assumed no increases...ever. ran that out to age 100 for both of us. i updated it once or twice a year and always saw that we had positive cash flow and didn't have to dip into the investments. we were 100% debt free so that helped a lot. i did this for 2 1/2 yrs because i figured i musta missed something but as time went by i began to gain confidence so i gave my 6-mos notice. pulled the plug in '05 and for the first couple of years i kept waiting for the "other shoe to fall", the negative, oops, "ah-ha!" moment but it never came.

13-yrs now and my revenue and exoenses forecasts are actually pretty much on track. our spending habits are about the same and we're still living beneath our means but we're enjoying life on an "every day is saturday" schedule.
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Old 02-10-2019, 11:45 PM   #7
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I also had analysis paralysis so we hired an FA to review our numbers and create a cash flow plan showing how we would fund our desired lifestyle. We ran it by our tax CPA too. This, combined with all the DIY analysis I did using Firecalc, Fido, i-Orp, and a couple of other tools confirmed that we were financially ready.

Like SumDay, I waited until a very substantial bonus I had coming was deposited and then I gave notice, but only 30 days which was the amount required in my employment contract. Good decision for me.
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Old 02-11-2019, 09:13 AM   #8
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It helps that I was/am an engineer. So understanding the logical math end of the retirement decision was easy for me. Your problem is an emotional understanding and need to get over that concern. Your math shows that you are in good position. Just convince yourself that the numbers are good and let that overcome your fears.
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Old 02-11-2019, 09:31 AM   #9
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With only 3 years till Medicare, and with a robust portfolio and hyper-conservative assumptions (3.5 inf, 4.0 returns?) you're probably good to go now vs. even slogging through this year.

Take a good look at what's pulling you to stay working vs what you'd be doing otherwise.
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Old 02-11-2019, 09:31 AM   #10
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If you are having the Sunday night terrors, let work go. I would be more concerned based on your post about the emotional stress you seem to be enduring. You can control your finances. Far less stressful than a workplace environment you can't control. I doubt you will be at the soup kitchen anytime soon based on your Firecalc projection. BTW, I get insurance through the ACA. It is expensive, but necessary to ensure your net worth is protected. Good luck!
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Old 02-11-2019, 10:48 AM   #11
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You're not alone in being cautious, but I agree you're in analysis paralysis. Aerides hit the nail on the head above.

For me, once we moved into our retirement house, bought a new car (with cash) and had a financial planner validate what I already knew (we had more than enough), I set my date for just after my birthday that year (gave me a small pension bump). Never looked back after that and wouldn't change a thing.
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Old 02-11-2019, 11:09 AM   #12
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Having 3 friends die in their 50’s made the decision easier. I would retire now.
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Old 02-11-2019, 11:23 AM   #13
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I went a bit of a different path. At age 57, my numbers all looked good. But there was a lot of change going on in my financial world, and with my kids moving into new jobs, and some real estate needs, and health concerns. Lots of turmoil.


I found an opportunity to teach college at my alma mater, in my career area. It was a chance to establish a glide path to full retirement. The money was not as good (by a long shot), but there was near zero job stress. I have taught now for 6 years, and this is my last semester. I am glad that I took this path.



I still have an irrational fear of turning down a paycheck. I guess I am just wired to make the money. I think that there are some memories and experiences from way back that still haunt me. I also know that there are many good technical jobs that are available, and it would be easy for me to pick up another job if I needed some cash. I use that to calm my brain when it gets nervous about being retired.
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Old 02-11-2019, 11:49 AM   #14
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I did a few things.
1. Ran every retirement calculator I could find to make sure I have enough.
2. Started the process of thinking through what I would be retiring to. I started a list in my phone and add to it every time something else occurs to me that I want to do. The list is now very, very long. I base them on themes like, physical challenges, travel, adventure, teach, learn, etc.
3. Set a date and act on it. I picked December 2020
4. Make it happen. We bought our retirement home in a LCOL area. I bought my retirement truck.

Every step we take, it makes the reality that much closer. We are now selling stuff to declutter for the move. I subscribe to the local paper in the town we are moving to so I feel apart of what is going on there. I have researched classes at what will be our new local community college. Found a bunch I want to take right away.

I think you just need to start moving toward the goal.
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Old 02-13-2019, 07:34 PM   #15
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I picked December 2020...I think you just need to start moving toward the goal.
COCheesehead - please update us when you hit July 2020. Will you still be marching solidly toward your goal? It's easy two years out to say I'm going to retire, but two months out is another thing altogether, unless you're seriously over-prepared (like a 2.5% WD rate)!

I should know...I've been on OMY for almost 3 years.
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Old 02-13-2019, 08:14 PM   #16
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COCheesehead - please update us when you hit July 2020. Will you still be marching solidly toward your goal? It's easy two years out to say I'm going to retire, but two months out is another thing altogether, unless you're seriously over-prepared (like a 2.5% WD rate)!

I should know...I've been on OMY for almost 3 years.
I can tell you now...it will happen. The retirement house is bought. We are moving in March. Zero debt. The retirement truck is bought. Zero debt. The AA is set. The bond ladder to deal with SOR out to SS is done. I can tell you about so many other things that are in motion. But it will be done. Promise you that. I don’t need to take any monies until 2022. I am rock and roll ready.
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Old 02-13-2019, 08:20 PM   #17
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I can tell you now...it will happen. The retirement house is bought. We are moving in March. Zero debt. The retirement truck is bought. Zero debt. The AA is set. The bond ladder to deal with SOR out to SS is done. I can tell you about so many other things that are in motion. But it will be done. Promise you that. I donít need to take any monies until 2022. I am rock and roll ready.
Awesome! Roll on!
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