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Re: Annuities
Old 03-15-2005, 08:15 AM   #141
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Re: Annuities

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Interesting strategy.

Does a guaranteed whole life premium really mean guaranteed under all circumstances? Or is there some loophole to jack it up if something unusually bad occurs.

intercst
Usually, the life prooduct in these arbitrages is a no-lapse UL policy rather than a whole life policy. There are no loopholes in the no-lapse policy as long as you make all the scheduled premium payments.
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Re: Annuities
Old 03-15-2005, 08:29 AM   #142
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Re: Annuities

: Go back and read my posts.

My joint life policy in a trust was paid off in 13 years. I never have to make another payment!

Tony!
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Re: Annuities
Old 03-15-2005, 08:32 AM   #143
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Re: Annuities

You guy's have one agenda and only one agenda and you trash everything else.

Please do not think that the small number of posters who have posted rude and abusive comments are representative of our community, Tony2002. I have been part of this community since its earliest days, and I can assure you that this is not the case.

The majority does not favor annuities, that's fair to say. But the majority would like to see the loudmouths give it a rest and allow some new people put forward some new ideas. The loudmouths are used to having their way. They see their influence fading as their "100 percent safe" ideas are revealed to have not worked out so hot in the real world. They see themselves as being in the process of losing something and those who are losing something are often more inclined to fight than are those who would like to gain something but don't even know much about what it is they hope to gain because they have never yet experienced it in a complete way.

We are going through a period of transition, Tony2002. We need people like you putting forward new perspectives to help us along. We very much do NOT need you getting down in the dirt with the disruptors. That's what they want you to do. Do that, and you (and the rest of us too) lose. I appreciate you sharing what worked for you. I hope you to continue to do so in an appropriate and effective way. I'm happy that you found something that worked for you, and pleased that you were willing to take the time to share, even under the difficult circumstances that unfortunately apply here at the present time.

Hang in there, Tony2002. I believe that it's going to be getting better before too long. I think we will be able to change your views as to what this community is really all about before too much more time passes through the hourglass.
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Re: Annuities
Old 03-15-2005, 08:36 AM   #144
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Re: Annuities

Tony2002 is the only shill in this thread. It should be pretty obvious to anyone who reads his posts and sees the same marketspeak cut and pasted repeatedly.

His posts seem to associate this board's membership of prognosticating 6-7% withdrawal rates in 1996 and/or of being commissioned financial advisors. Um, that wasn't this group; this board was staretd about 3 or 4 years ago. And check our post counts and see if we've ever tried to sell anything. Intercst's site has a couple of reports for sale but the vast majority of info there is free for the reading and following his advice leads to no particular investment company. Dory36 doesn't sell a thing as far as I know. Neither site even has ads.

Some lurkers may wonder why we take the effort to attack these people. If I may dare to speak for some others, it's because we think they're offering bad or at best unqualified advice and/or shilling or selling a product and don't care to let that sit unchallenged on our board because a casual reader may not know the reputation difference between Tony2002 and intercst.

Quote:
*****, I admire your doggedness and refusal to respong with anger. Still, I am totally in the dark as to why you continue. What is your goal?
***** has had a book in the works for at least 5 years. My recent theory is that he is trying to build grass roots support and/or shape this--as identified and defined by him--epic "Great SWR Debate" either as an audience to sell the book to or more likely a sign of interest and rising new FI/RE phenomenon that may convince a publisher to publish his book.

Positioning himelsf against intercst makes sense because inctercst has some web and publicity fame and was even on tap to write ER for Dummies for IDG publishing until he turned it down because they wanted to push certain ideas. Amazon.com presold copies of that book by Greaney (intercst) before they chagned authors. Anyway, if ***** could promote his book as controversial to or correcting intercst's popular website and the SWR studies he reports it might make the book more interesting to publishers.

Anyway, it's just a theory of mine, and I know little about ***** and nothing about publishing. But I find it funny that I decided to post this before reading in this thread his mention of his book.

Back before things got ugly I got on the list to be notified when his book was published. You can take me off, though...I've seen enough.

By the way, if ***** is "the founder of the SWR Research Group board at NoFeeBoards.com" then do I get to be "the founder of the Young Dreamers board at Early-Retirement.org"? I'm adding that to my sig.

EDIT: Cross-posted with ***** (and Tony and brewer). ***** attacks the "100% safe" moniker, but I haven't seen any such consensus that 4% is 100% safe no questions asked. There's been lots of discussion and everyone has their own fudge factors for their situations. I don't see the straw monster ***** is attacking.

Quote:
Go back and read my posts.
Why bother? You'll post them again tomorrow.
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Re: Annuities
Old 03-15-2005, 08:43 AM   #145
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Re: Annuities

I don't mean to pull this off thread but
brewer12345 - were you able to read all of Svjek? - the author went through a lot of alcoholic episodes and you really can tell in some of the writing.

I used to work in the MOD building mentioned in the beginning of the book and even visited the famous pub, now a tourist trap.

arrete
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Re: Annuities
Old 03-15-2005, 08:46 AM   #146
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Re: Annuities

:What a coincidence that you started promoting the 4% SWR 3 or 4 years ago!

Just when the 6% to 7% SWR promoted from 1997 to 2000 exploded many early retirement plans.

I don't think this is a coincidence.

Tony
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Re: Annuities
Old 03-15-2005, 09:27 AM   #147
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Re: Annuities

Intercst's site has a couple of reports for sale but the vast majority of info there is free for the reading

I don't think that intercst is trying to make money with his magic 4 percent SWR claims (except for the small amount he earns from sales of the REHP study). He is indeed "selling" something in his posts to this board, however. He is "selling" himself as some sort of guru on how to achieve early retirement.

When posters come to fancy themselves as gurus with the right to stomp out alternate viewpoints, it does damage to the board. We are a community of people with diverse ideas on how to win financial freedom early in life. It is the diversity of viewpoints heard on a board that give it its strength.

We don't hear a diversity of viewpoints on SWRs at this board. We hear one viewpoint over and over and over and over again. There are people saying that Tony2002 is repetitive in his claims. Well, he's got a long ways to go before he will be a match for intercst. There are thousands os posts on this board pushing the intercst view on SWRs.

Why is it OK for intercst to be repetitive and not for Tony2002 to be repetitive? This I do not get. I believe that it is reasonable to rein in posters who cross a line and become so repetitive that their posting is disruptive of other conversations that people want to have. But I also believe that the same rules that are applied to Tony2002 should be applied to intercst and his supporters.
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Re: Annuities
Old 03-15-2005, 09:39 AM   #148
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Re: Annuities

Some lurkers may wonder why we take the effort to attack these people....It's because we think they're offering bad or at best unqualified advice and/or shilling or selling a product.

If you see flaws in the argument that Tony2002 is putting forward, you are doing us a service by asking hard questions. When you put forward unproven allegations that he is selling something, you do us harm by generating unnecessary friction. The impression you give when you do that is that you had your mind made up before he put forward his first post and that your only purpose in participating in the discussion was to see that it was quickly brought to a close.

a casual reader may not know the reputation difference between Tony2002 and intercst.

I ain't a casual reader. I have over 2500 posts to my credit and my first post came in May 1999, the month the first board went up. I think that Tony2002 has more to offer us today than intercst. We all have every argument intercst is capable of putting forward memorized by now. Tony2002 is saying something that we have not been much exposed to in the six years since that first board (the Motley Fool board) was formed.
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Re: Annuities
Old 03-15-2005, 09:39 AM   #149
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Re: Annuities

Quote:
I don't mean to pull this off thread but
brewer12345 - were you able to read all of Svjek? - the author went through a lot of alcoholic episodes and you really can tell in some of the writing.

I used to work in the MOD building mentioned in the beginning of the book and even visited the famous pub, now a tourist trap.

arrete
I've read it several times, although only in the English translation. Yeah, it is clear that Hasek was in his cups much of the time, but the book works as a series of (loosely) connected vignettes. I think it is hysterical, in fact, and it is a great comfort when I am really feeling like an oppressed cog in the corporate wheel.
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Re: Annuities
Old 03-15-2005, 09:50 AM   #150
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Re: Annuities

Positioning himelsf against intercst makes sense because inctercst has some web and publicity fame

I didn't "position" myself as anti-intercst. Intercst positioned himself as anti-me when I reported accurately what the historical data says re SWRs.

if ***** could promote his book as controversial to or correcting intercst's popular website and the SWR studies he reports it might make the book more interesting to publishers.

The "Passion Saving" book does not discuss SWRs. It does mention intercst, but only in positive ways. It describes him as being a highly effective saver and credits him as the founder of the Motley Fool board, which I identify as having been the most important resource on Planet Earth for learning about early retirement during its Golden Age (December 1999 through January 2001).

I am planning a second book, which will focus on how aspiring early retirees can make use of the Data-Based SWR Tool to win financial freedom early in life. I will of course be reporting in that book that the REHP study is analytically invalid for determining SWRs and exploring what the various communities learned about what the historical data says during The Great SWR Debate.
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Re: Annuities
Old 03-15-2005, 09:51 AM   #151
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Re: Annuities

: :***** are you saying that this board is connected to the Motley Fool site?

Now I know why this board is so onesided.

Motley Fool website has a very big onesided agenda!

Tony



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Re: Annuities
Old 03-15-2005, 10:05 AM   #152
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Re: Annuities

Well - I'm willing to repeat myself

Show me the academic studies on annuities in journals - and the peer reviews.

Where are the expenses/commisions detailed - what are the actuarial bets involved and the visibility as to what the companies invest in.

Looks like Brewer is the only one taking a shot in that direction.

Annuities look a lot like the murky Wall Street crap that drove many to index funds.

Vanguard maybe - if I could make the case for a fixed annuity as part of my ER plan.

All others are suspect - not necessarily guilty mind you - but suspect pending understanding the nuts and bolts.

Waving the 7+ % flag in a low interest environment don't cut it. 1966 - 2004 - I've seen a lot of ups/downs and get a little suspicious of 'guarantee's.'

Annuities do have a place in this world - watch your back - understand what you are buying and why - benchmark everything against Vanguard.

When you get me a stable currency worldwide 12% - like the old Swiss ones I remember - maybe??
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Re: Annuities
Old 03-15-2005, 10:15 AM   #153
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Re: Annuities

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Annuities look a lot like the murky Wall Street crap that drove many to index funds.
Uncle, if you look at the articles referenced in this thread oh-so-long ago at the TIAA-CREF Institute, you will see some studies indicating that payout annuities might increase the survivability of one's portfolio in certain circumstances. I also suspect that there have been plenty of studies in academic journals if you would care to do a search. The big flaw is that virtually all of these studies examine survivability for a 65 year old, so an early retiree is unlikely to get much use from them.

Remember, an annuity is an insurance product, not an investment. Insurance products contain guarantees and guarantees cost money. Surprise, surprise, they generally are not appropriate for those of us who prefer to take our chances and save ourselves the cost of the guarantee.
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Re: Annuities
Old 03-15-2005, 10:16 AM   #154
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Re: Annuities

are you saying that this board is connected to the Motley Fool site?

This board is a spin-off of the Motley Fool board.

Dory36 is the owner of this site. Intercst has been named by Motley Fool the "Board General" of the Motley Fool board (in violation of the rules that govern the site's discussion boards). Dory36, intercst, and me posted together as friends on the Motley Fool board during its Golden Age.

On May 13, 2002, I put a post to the Motley Fool board reporting that intercst got the SWR number wrong in the study published at RetireEarlyHomePage.com. Intercst declared war on me and on any other poster who reported accurately what the historical data says. That war has raged at half a dozen boards for 34 months now. I refer to it as the "Campaign of Terror."

Dory36 is the developer of FIRECalc. FIRECalc uses the REHP study as the source for its SWR numbers.

I formed the SWR Research Group (at NoFeeBoards.com) in July 2003. JWR1945 posts research at that board that has discredited the REHP study. JWR1945 has declared the REHP study's methodology "analytically invalid for purposes of determining SWRs." JWR1945 has posted at both the Motley Fool board and here. He stopped posting at the Motley Fool board because of the abusive and dishonest tactics used there to block reasoned SWR discussions. He rarely posts here because abusive posting by intercst supporters is a serious problem here too.

Dory36 has generally taken a "hands off" position on the SWR question. He has said that those who use the REHP study for guidance should build a lot of slack into their plans. That suggests a lack of confidence in the study since the study purports to provide a "100 percent safe" number and there would not be a need for a lot of slack if the study's claims were accurate ones. But Dory36 has not declared the REHP study analytically invalid.

Dory36 has failed to take effective action to stop the abusive posting practices employed by intercst and his supporters to block reasoned debate of the flaws of the REHP study. That said, this board is a far more valuable resource for learning what it takes to retire early than is today's Motley Fool board. There is no comparison. This board is today as good as was the Motley Fool board in its Golden Age, with its one glaring weakness being its handling of the SWR matter.

For accurate information re SWRs, I advise aspiring early retirees to check out the SWR Research Group board and to read Chapter Two of Bernstein's "The Four Pillars of Investing." I advise that they make use of this board for non-SWR topics. I advise that they make use of the Motley Fool board's Post Archives, but note that there is little of value to aspiring early retirees being posted to that board in the current day.
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Re: Annuities
Old 03-15-2005, 10:20 AM   #155
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Re: Annuities

:unclemick2

When I did my research in April 2004, Vanguard was in the middle of the pack of at least 90 that I looked at in terms of interest rates that were paid on deferred annuities.

On the immediate annuity vanguard was the 6th highest. 5 other companies had higher payments all were rated A+ and up.

I looked at everything and found the best deals.

As for material on Immediate Annuities do a search on Yahoo. Just type Immediate Annuities and search!

The most Interesting thing I found on Annuities was that the immediate annuity form was in existence at the time of the Roman Empire.

Now that is time tested!


Tony
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Re: Annuities
Old 03-15-2005, 10:23 AM   #156
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Re: Annuities

As the Roman's said: Caveat Emptor
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Re: Annuities
Old 03-15-2005, 10:27 AM   #157
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Re: Annuities

O.K. so I can hear the veterans of this board groaning now, but I gotta ask:

*****, could you please explain/provide a link showing me a simple spelled out example of a time in history where a balanced portfolio did not survive a 4% rate? Firecalc's number adjusts for variables, I've never seen anyone say "excactly 4% always", but just to put that aside for now, please give me a year, a starting amount, the 4% withdrawal, historical returns, and the year the portfolio goes bust. So far, the posts I've read of yours leave me feeling like I watched a late night infomercial on personal finance....words like "revolution" the "great debate" "philisophical sea change" "paradigm shift" but no numbers. Then when other posters present numbers to refute you (like 4% being tested against the tech bubble bursting) you claim that the inner cabal is just out to silence the truth, you know, like they did Kennedy and Elvis and area 51

But seriously, I'm new, I've tried to search the archives, but the arguments all sound the same. Maybe I missed something. I'm open to a simple table you could link me to.
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Re: Annuities
Old 03-15-2005, 10:34 AM   #158
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Re: Annuities

Uh-oh. Time for the bunny again, TH.
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Re: Annuities
Old 03-15-2005, 10:36 AM   #159
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Re: Annuities

Here is a link to a tutorial that was published at the Gummy Stuff web site re JWR1945's SWR work.

http://www.gummy-stuff.org/JWR.htm

Here is a table that JWR1945 prepared that shows the correlation between the valuation level (as assessed through use of PE/10, the valuation tool used by Shiller) that applied at the beginning of each 30-year returns sequence and the Historical DataBase Rates for 50 percent and 80 percent S&P portfolios associated with that 30-year returns sequence. (The HDBR is the highest take-out number that would have worked for that returns sequence.)

HDBR50 and HDBR80 Ordered by PE10 *
*
Lowest Valuations *
Code: *
*
Year* PE10* HDBR50* HDBR80 *
1921* * 5.1* *9.6* *11.6 *
1922* * 6.2* *8.4* *10.3 *
1924* * 8.0* *7.9* * 9.5 *
1923* * 8.1* *7.6* * 9.0 *
1933* * 8.7* *5.8* * 8.4 *
1980* * 8.8* *9.2* *10.3 *
1975* * 8.9* *7.0* * 8.3 *
1978* * 9.2* *7.9* * 9.1 *
1979* * 9.2* *8.4* * 9.5 *
1932* * 9.3* *6.0* * 8.1 *
1925* * 9.6* *7.3* * 8.4 *
1942* *10.1* *6.1* * 9.1 *
1943* *10.1* *6.3* * 9.2 *
1949* *10.2* *7.8* *11.1 *
1948* *10.4* *7.7* *10.9 *
1950* *10.7* *7.3* *10.2 *
1944* *11.0* *6.1* * 8.6 *
1976* *11.1* *6.5* * 7.2 *
1926* *11.3* *6.9* * 7.7 *
1935* *11.4* *5.3* * 7.4 *
*
*
Middle Valuations *
Code: *
*
Year* PE10* HDBR50* HDBR80 *
1947* *11.4* *6.8* *9.4 *
1977* *11.4* *6.8* *7.4 *
1951* *11.8* *7.1* *9.4 *
1945* *11.9* *5.9* *8.2 *
1954* *12.0* *6.9* *9.0 *
1952* *12.5* *6.9* *9.0 *
1934* *13.0* *4.8* *6.3 *
1953* *13.0* *6.7* *8.6 *
1927* *13.1* *6.6* *7.3 *
1938* *13.5* *4.9* *6.6 *
1974* *13.5* *5.6* *5.9 *
1958* *13.7* *5.8* *6.8 *
1941* *13.9* *5.0* *7.0 *
1939* *15.5* *4.6* *6.0 *
1946* *15.6* *5.2* *6.7 *
1955* *15.9* *5.8* *6.9 *
1940* *16.3* *4.6* *6.1 *
1971* *16.4* *4.9* *5.0 *
1931* *16.7* *5.1* *5.6 *
1957* *16.7* *5.3* *6.0 *
*
*
[/b]Highest Valuations[/b] *
Code: *
*
Year* PE10* HDBR50* HDBR80 *
1936* *17.0* *4.4* *5.5 *
1970* *17.0* *4.8* *4.9 *
1972* *17.2* *4.8* *4.8 *
1959* *17.9* *5.0* *5.4 *
1956* *18.2* *5.2* *5.9 *
1960* *18.3* *5.0* *5.3 *
1961* *18.4* *5.0* *5.3 *
1973* *18.7* *4.7* *4.5 *
1928* *18.8* *5.7* *5.8 *
1963* *19.2* *4.9* *5.1 *
1967* *20.4* *4.5* *4.5 *
1962* *21.1* *4.7* *4.8 *
1969* *21.1* *4.3* *4.2 *
1968* *21.6* *4.3* *4.2 *
1937* *21.6* *3.9* *4.6 *
1964* *21.6* *4.6* *4.6 *
1930* *22.3* *4.8* *4.8 *
1965* *23.2* *4.3* *4.2 *
1966* *24.0* *4.2* *4.0 *
1929* *27.0* *4.6* *4.3 *

The tables show a correlation between the starting-point PE10 level and the HDBR for the 30-year returns sequence that follows. The PE10 for recent years is higher than it has been in any earlier time-period. That means that claims that a 4 percent withdrawal is safe for retirements beginning today are NOT analytically valid. An adjustment for today's valuation levels is needed, and an appropriate adjustment brings today's SWR for an 80 percent S&P portfolio down to 2.4 percent.
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Re: Annuities
Old 03-15-2005, 10:55 AM   #160
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Re: Annuities

So just so I'm sure I understand what you are saying:

You are not claiming there is any time in history where it would have failed ( I see one portfolio allocation and start year with an SWR of 3.9%, but let's fudge), you are saying this time it's different, o.k. got it, thanks.
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