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Re: Another Bear Market Looming?
Old 07-09-2006, 11:01 AM   #21
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Re: Another Bear Market Looming?

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So it's all good.
like so many things, it's what you make of it.* if, like many do, you buy when the market is up, and sell when it's down, then it's all bad.
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Re: Another Bear Market Looming?
Old 07-11-2006, 01:02 PM   #22
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Re: Another Bear Market Looming?

Sorry everyone, I had a family issue come up unexpectedly the day after I posted this and haven't been able to get back to a computer to logon. I certainly didn't mean to post this as spam, nor to publicize this particular investment newsletter, I was seriously interested in peoples' perspectives on what was happening with the market. I've been seeing (I'm obviously reading the WRONG information) a lot of discussion about getting out of the US equity market on other sites and although I'm normally discerning about what I believe or act on, and given that I value the opinions of most folks on this site I decided to see what you all thought. Incidentally, I had been a member of the Motley Fools Retire Early boards from 1999, paid for a year I think it was when they changed it to a pay-for system, that was close to when I discovered this board through Intercst/John Dory and moved over. I've been a follower of John Greaney's success in retiring early, Galeno's and some of the others who were so prolific and inspirational on the Fool's Board.

I apologize if I offended anyone with sharing this email that was sent to me, and in looking at it again I do agree that it could be considered spam.

I also wanted to advise that I have previously posted my financial situation on this Board.

I hope this helps, and again my apologies for any misunderstanding.
Regards,
Rosalita
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Re: Another Bear Market Looming?
Old 07-11-2006, 01:47 PM   #23
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Re: Another Bear Market Looming?

Wiggin and his pal Bonner are pretty much Johnny one-tune on this, and have been for years.* That said, it doesn't mean they're wrong.

I think there's a lot of downside risk in this market and am long only energy and some gold, and a couple of defensive names.* I've been short selling into rallies because I'm more worried about getting caught long than short.* So, I guess I'd be voting for the bear.

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Re: Another Bear Market Looming?
Old 07-12-2006, 04:59 PM   #24
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Re: Another Bear Market Looming?

I am a little concerned that a bear may be on the way so I have been accumulating cash in my investment accounts. If a bear market does occur, I will be in a good position to buy at 'on sale' prices. If no bear market comes - I am still earning a solid 4.75% in Vanguard's Prime Money market.
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Re: Another Bear Market Looming?
Old 07-12-2006, 05:29 PM   #25
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Re: Another Bear Market Looming?

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Originally Posted by Cut-Throat
There has been a Bear Market looming ever since I started investing.
You were in the minority in the 1990s and you are in the minority now.

I heard buy the dip 19 times on CNBC in the three hours I watched today.

Is this July 2000 or July 2006? :
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Re: Another Bear Market Looming?
Old 07-12-2006, 05:53 PM   #26
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Re: Another Bear Market Looming?

I have to get a dish so I can monitor this mood. I do know that there is no fear out there, in spite of the NASDAQ coming down almost 2% today. The VIX remains very low around 14, and the VXN, which applies to NASDAQ, is only 22. I would imagine that both will have doubled before this weak market goes off stage some time later this year.

I am personally well positioned for a scenario like this, with a lot of cash and a pretty good slug of puts. I have rolled down on some puts that have gone well into the money, since they donít retain much time value. IF VIX does increase, I believe that the good kick will come to puts with considerable time value.

Ha
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Re: Another Bear Market Looming?
Old 07-12-2006, 05:55 PM   #27
 
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Re: Another Bear Market Looming?

Quote:
Originally Posted by IHateCNBC
You were in the minority in the 1990s and you are in the minority now.

I heard buy the dip 19 times on CNBC in the three hours I watched today.

Is this July 2000 or July 2006? :
I don't know and I don't care.

- My investment plan does not try to figure out what the market is going to do. Mostly because no one can.

I think I'm gonna hurry up and do nothing!
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Re: Another Bear Market Looming?
Old 07-12-2006, 07:07 PM   #28
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Re: Another Bear Market Looming?

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Originally Posted by dmpi
I agree. The S&P 500 trades with a P/E of 15.
That is trailing not forward earnings.

Most S&P 500 still have earnings based on $40-50 crude.

You will see some major earning blows up moving forward.

Good luck.
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Re: Another Bear Market Looming?
Old 07-12-2006, 07:20 PM   #29
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Re: Another Bear Market Looming?

Quote:
Originally Posted by IHateCNBC
I heard buy the dip 19 times on CNBC in the three hours I watched today.

Is this July 2000 or July 2006? :
It was good advice then, and probably good advice now. I started investing in late 2000, and was buying all through the 2001-2002 dip.

Speaking of the name "Wiggin," I'm having a flashback to Tim Conway on the Carol Burnett Show.

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Re: Another Bear Market Looming?
Old 07-12-2006, 07:50 PM   #30
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Re: Another Bear Market Looming?

Just keep buying. Eventually it will all go up and and we will be talking about another Bull run. Takes money to make it*
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Re: Another Bear Market Looming?
Old 07-12-2006, 08:01 PM   #31
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Re: Another Bear Market Looming?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cransten
I think there's a lot of downside risk in this market and am long only energy and some gold, and a couple of defensive names.*
Energy and gold are defensive? If the economy tanks commodities will be off by 50% easy - its called demand destruction and $70 oil will turn in to $30 oil before you have a chance to say Ooops!
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Re: Another Bear Market Looming?
Old 07-12-2006, 09:22 PM   #32
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Re: Another Bear Market Looming?

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Originally Posted by Mwsinron
Just keep buying. Eventually it will all go up and and we will be talking about another Bull run. Takes money to make it*
I know a person whose portfolio went from $850,000 to $65,000 in two years doing just that.* *
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Re: Another Bear Market Looming?
Old 07-12-2006, 09:28 PM   #33
 
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Re: Another Bear Market Looming?

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Originally Posted by IHateCNBC
I know a person whose portfolio went from $850,000 to $65,000 in two years doing just that.
If it did, he was not diversified and listening to 'stock pickers'. He was not invested in the total market and had way too much in equities.

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Re: Another Bear Market Looming?
Old 07-12-2006, 09:37 PM   #34
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Re: Another Bear Market Looming?

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Originally Posted by Cut-Throat
If it did, he was not diversified and listening to 'stock pickers'.* He was not invested in the total market and had way too much in equities.
She was 57.* *Retired in 2000 at age 55 and killed herself in August 2002.* Buying stock on the "dip" on margain.* Just could not face filing for bankrupcy after testing the job market in late 2002.* *Her saying was "cash is trash".*

That is just it.* There was no signs she was taking such loses.* I can still remember watching the breaking stories of the people going nuts and killing people in a "day trading" rooms.*

I guess it is like slot machines to some people.* They just can not walk away when they are ahead - they got to give it one more spin - in case the next pull is the jackpot.*
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Re: Another Bear Market Looming?
Old 07-12-2006, 09:45 PM   #35
 
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Re: Another Bear Market Looming?

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Originally Posted by IHateCNBC
She was 57. Retired in 2000 at age 55 and killed herself in August 2002. Buying stock on the "dip" on margain. Just could not face filing for bankrupcy after testing the job market in late 2002. Her saying was "cash is trash".

That is just it. There was no signs she was taking such loses. I can still remember watching the breaking stories of the people going nuts and killing people in a "day trading" rooms.

I guess it is like slot machines to some people. They just can not walk away when they are ahead - they got to give it one more spin - in case the next pull is the jackpot.
I am sure that is not what the original poster had in mind when he said he was buying on dips. I have never heard anyone on this forum propose a strategy like the above mentioned person.

We don't get a lot of 'Day Traders' here either.
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Re: Another Bear Market Looming?
Old 07-12-2006, 09:46 PM   #36
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Re: Another Bear Market Looming?

I was just making the point buy while its going down. I dont believe in market timing but buying when its going down is certainly better than buying at a peak. I assume my target audience here on the boards is fairly intelligent and knows to be well diversified. At least that is what I have gathered from my short time lurking and posting.
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Re: Another Bear Market Looming?
Old 07-13-2006, 09:08 AM   #37
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Re: Another Bear Market Looming?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mwsinron
I was just making the point buy while its going down. I dont believe in market timing but buying when its going down is certainly better than buying at a peak. I assume my target audience here on the boards is fairly intelligent and knows to be well diversified. At least that is what I have gathered from my short time lurking and posting.
Would be interesting if we were in 2000 if everyone here would be touting being diversified.

Not trying to start anything but being diversified was not the mindset in 1999.

Now we are being diversified experts.

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Re: Another Bear Market Looming?
Old 07-13-2006, 09:15 AM   #38
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Re: Another Bear Market Looming?

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"cash is trash"
i've long felt cash to be a greatly undervalued asset.* it occassionally provides returns better than the alternatives, and when held is available to "buy on the dip". i buy on the dip, not because i'm trying to time the market, but*to maintain my asset allocation.
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Re: Another Bear Market Looming?
Old 07-13-2006, 12:46 PM   #39
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Re: Another Bear Market Looming?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mwsinron
I was just making the point buy while its going down. I dont believe in market timing but buying when its going down is certainly better than buying at a peak. I assume my target audience here on the boards is fairly intelligent and knows to be well diversified. At least that is what I have gathered from my short time lurking and posting.
I have to disagree. I like to buy stocks as they are going up and I like to sell as they are going down. Nobody can pick exact tops and bottoms but if you buy a stock as it is climbing instead of falling you have a much better chance of making money. I don't like trying to catch falling knifes. "Buy it down here somewhere and sell it up there somewhere"
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Re: Another Bear Market Looming?
Old 07-13-2006, 01:26 PM   #40
 
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Re: Another Bear Market Looming?

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Originally Posted by IHateCNBC
Would be interesting if we were in 2000 if everyone here would be touting being diversified.

Not trying to start anything but being diversified was not the mindset in 1999.

Now we are being diversified experts.

I was diversified througout the 90's. I was 90% in stocks though, because I was still working.

The 2000-2003 downturn did not affect me that much. I was not 90% in tech stocks, mostly S&P 500.

To get the kind of losses that you described ($850K to $65K) does not even sound like investing. Might as well play roulette at Vegas.

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