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Another Bear Market Looming?
Old 07-07-2006, 09:04 PM   #1
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Another Bear Market Looming?

I've been hearing a lot about the economy heading for another Bear Market and possibly worst this year. What are others hearing and giving the length of your investment tenure and experience, what do you think may occur? Here is an excerpt from an investment newsletter .... and yes they are trying to sell me on attending a webinar where "they will reveal all for surviving". I'm not so green as to fall for it, but am interested in general opinion and observation on the investment market short, medium and long term.

snip
"An out-of-control trade deficit... record-high oil prices... violent swings in gold... rampant inflation fears... rising interest rates...

Think I'm talking about today's market? Think again! I'm actually looking at historical data from one of Wall Street's worst debacles since the Great Depression. A time of anxiety... confusion... fear...

And for a small group of investors, a time of unprecedented profit opportunities.

Now all the signs say it's about to happen again. And if you're prepared, you could rack up a fortune in the months and years ahead. Imagine weathering the worst the market throws at you - and emerging wealthier than you ever thought possible.

Hi, this is Addison Wiggin, editor of The Daily Reckoning and author of the best-selling books Empire of Debt, Financial Reckoning Day and The Demise of the Dollar. I'm also the publisher of Agora Financial, working with some of the top market analysts today.

As you might imagine, we spend all our time studying and analyzing the world economy, and I can tell you - we haven't seen anything as bad as what we see coming.

But we also know that this looming crisis can actually mean incredible windfall profits for you.

In a moment, I'll show you how you can make it happen... using the knowledge, strategies and recommendations from 10 of the world's premier experts. Usually you'd have to empty your bank account and travel halfway around the world for in-depth advice like this. But today, you can learn it all from the privacy of your home... and for less than the price of a good meal.

I'll give you all the details in a second. First, however, let's take a look at what you're up against...


You're Facing Some Powerful Profit-Robbers

There's no question the market has been acting pretty crazy. In just the past six months alone:

- Gold prices have become a roller coaster - swinging from as low as $524 to
as high as $725. Prices are now jumping and falling every few days

- Oil prices have continued to skyrocket to all-time highs - up nearly $10 a
barrel since the year began

- Interest rates are on the rise, threatening to pop the U.S. housing
bubble

- And the dollar has fallen in almost a straight line since March - barely
above its all-time lows.

And that's not to mention the longer-term trends still in play, like the $804 billion trade deficit... the negative savings rate... even the booming emerging markets in China and India.

The stock market is finally starting to feel the pressure. After topping 11,600 points in May, the Dow plunged below 11,000 in early June. The Nasdaq and the S&P 500 are down even more sharply for the year.

But get ready - because it's about to get much, much worse. In fact, the way I see it, we're heading toward the same kind of crisis that nearly destroyed the markets in the late 1970s.

Let me refresh your memory a bit...


Get Ready for the Return of an Investment Killer

As President Jimmy Carter entered the White House, the American economy was in trouble. Years of low interest rates had expanded U.S. credit to an extreme level. The country was still in the grip of an oil crisis - with consumers paying over three times more for oil than they had just a few years before. America's trade surplus had just become a giant deficit - at an all-time high of $14 billion. And the U.S. dollar was in a virtual free fall.

The result was a rapid increase in prices that didn't add to anyone's wealth - a toxic convergence of inflation and economic stagnation called stagflation. And it turned the U.S. market on its head. The stock market plunged, followed by a plunge in bond prices as the Fed desperately raised interest rates to fight the danger.

It took over four years for America to dig itself out of the ditch. But it wasn't bad for everyone. Oil investors, of course, enjoyed a field day. Gold investors cashed in, too, as the yellow metal began its historic march from $180 an ounce to $800. And there were even pockets of prosperity to be found on Wall Street - solid businesses and little-known companies that were well positioned to ride the storm. Investors who knew where to look had a chance to cash in big.

Now, nearly three decades later, it looks like stagflation is about to raise its ugly head again. That's why I've assembled an emergency session of our 10 most gifted Wall Street analysts, traders and visionaries. And they want share with you their vital advice and recommendations for the remainder of the year in a revolutionary new format. "
snip
Thanks
Rosalita



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Re: Another Bear Market Looming?
Old 07-07-2006, 09:19 PM   #2
 
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Re: Another Bear Market Looming?

There has been a Bear Market looming ever since I started investing.

The most dangerous time that I remember was back in 1992. We were in a recession and had just come out of the 1980's Bull market, and the Crash of 1987 was fresh in everyones minds.
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Re: Another Bear Market Looming?
Old 07-07-2006, 09:37 PM   #3
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Re: Another Bear Market Looming?

The way I understand it we are in a bear market, overall. But we are having a counter rally that could go on for awhile.

But on the other hand as someone said (I think it was Buffet)

"The future is never clear, and you pay a very high price in the stock market for a cheery consensus. Uncertainty is the friend of the buyer of long-term values."

So if you want uncertainty, you've got it.

boont
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Re: Another Bear Market Looming?
Old 07-07-2006, 09:37 PM   #4
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Re: Another Bear Market Looming?

Quote:
Hi, this is Addison Wiggin, editor of The Daily Reckoning and author of the best-selling books Empire of Debt, Financial Reckoning Day and The Demise of the Dollar. I'm also the publisher of Agora Financial, working with some of the top market analysts today.
Is this the person that coined the phrase "Wiggin out"
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Re: Another Bear Market Looming?
Old 07-07-2006, 09:56 PM   #5
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Re: Another Bear Market Looming?

who's the moderator on "spam alert"?

smells like spam to me.......
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Re: Another Bear Market Looming?
Old 07-07-2006, 10:26 PM   #6
 
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Re: Another Bear Market Looming?

Quote:
Originally Posted by bosco
who's the moderator on "spam alert"?

smells like spam to me.......
I was thinking the same thing, but read it carefully and decided it probably wasn't. I let it slide.

Read it again.
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Re: Another Bear Market Looming?
Old 07-08-2006, 06:06 AM   #7
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Re: Another Bear Market Looming?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cut-Throat
I was thinking the same thing, but read it carefully and decided it probably wasn't. I let it slide.

Read it again.
I read it twice and it looks like spam to me too. A short question "is this rea," followed by the entire pitch?

Rosalita - tell us about yourself (financial situation, plans for RE, etc) without any further reference to Wiggin other than that you are worried about a bear market.
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Re: Another Bear Market Looming?
Old 07-08-2006, 07:15 AM   #8
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Re: Another Bear Market Looming?

Until we hear from Rosalita,

What does it matter? Good investors can weather ups and downs in the market and after every crash (29, 87) there has been huge wealth created on the rally.

In the old days, investors could only make money in a bear market by switching to cash or knowing how to short stocks or sell puts. Now, they have mutual funds set up simply for bear market strategies.

I bought BEARX in late 2001 and made it through 2002 okay, but this is maybe my aggressive investing style as well.

I now own URPIX as it is at an all time low and gives you the same protection in a bear market.

IMHO, if a crash does come, play it safe and then buy at a discount for the rally. This may be my “market timing” again but who here hasn’t made any money since the crash of 87?

I am interested to hear from some of you that have weather through the past crashes, what did you do? You’ve seemed to come out all right?

P.S. A good diversification in B**ver Ch**se will always get you through a bear market smelling like…
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Re: Another Bear Market Looming?
Old 07-08-2006, 07:45 AM   #9
 
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Re: Another Bear Market Looming?

Quote:
Originally Posted by donheff
I read it twice and it looks like spam to me too. A short question "is this rea," followed by the entire pitch?

Rosalita - tell us about yourself (financial situation, plans for RE, etc) without any further reference to Wiggin other than that you are worried about a bear market.
If this was her first post, it wold be gone already. She has been registered since January and has made various posts on different topics. I think she's asking an honest question.

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Re: Another Bear Market Looming?
Old 07-08-2006, 08:11 AM   #10
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Re: Another Bear Market Looming?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cut-Throat
I was thinking the same thing, but read it carefully and decided it probably wasn't. I let it slide.

Read it again.
yeah, guess you are right. Mea culpa.

It wasn't spam after all, just baloney.

Apologies, Rosalita. Certain phrases I encountered in your quote cause my eyes to glaze. I actually used to read stuff like that...even paid for it once or twice back in the 80s. Then I figured out that there are certain "perma-bears" and that eventually they will be right. Only problem is, you lose a lot more money waiting for them to be right than you lose when they finally are....
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Re: Another Bear Market Looming?
Old 07-08-2006, 08:39 AM   #11
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Re: Another Bear Market Looming?

Quote:
Originally Posted by bosco
yeah, guess you are right.* Mea culpa.*

It wasn't spam after all, just baloney.* *

Apologies, Rosalita. Certain phrases I encountered in your quote cause my eyes to glaze.* I actually used to read stuff like that...even paid for it once or twice back in the 80s.* Then I figured out that there are certain "perma-bears" and that eventually they will be right.* Only problem is, you lose a lot more money waiting for them to be right than you lose when they finally are....
It's hell getting old because we've seen all of the doomsday predictions and scams -- sometimes two or three times! We've even fallen for some of them -- once.

There was this great tent preacher back in the 1830's that had calculated the exact end of the world (or second coming - take your pick). He had thousands of followers. I know he is right. He just made a minor error in his calculations.
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Re: Another Bear Market Looming?
Old 07-08-2006, 09:03 AM   #12
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Re: Another Bear Market Looming?

I belive a bear market is looming. Take a look at the attached link for an analysis I agree with.

http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/inde...opic=55819&hl=

My positions and plans:

65% USA cash - will invest in high yield bond funds and other stock funds and house when appropriate.
35% Foreign currencies - own due to expectation the FED will stop raising rates, other countries will continue to raise rates; the dollar will fall.
Your thoughts.
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Re: Another Bear Market Looming?
Old 07-08-2006, 09:19 AM   #13
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Re: Another Bear Market Looming?

Dividends.

heh heh heh
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Re: Another Bear Market Looming?
Old 07-08-2006, 09:35 AM   #14
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Re: Another Bear Market Looming?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Maddy the Turbo Beagle
Is this the person that coined the phrase "Wiggin out"
I understand a relative made Chief of police in some town named Springfield.

High-5 on the dividends UM...
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Re: Another Bear Market Looming?
Old 07-08-2006, 10:53 AM   #15
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Re: Another Bear Market Looming?

The 2000 crash hurt a lot, and the late 90's was an obvious bubble...20/20 hindsight is nice right?* Higher energy prices, huge budget deficits and rising interest rates will cause big problems soon.* I am mostly cash and a small amount of international funds at this point and will buy domestic stocks when they're much lower.* The coming major recession, and it will come, will not hurt me much at all.* People with high percentage stock holdings will get creamed again.* The possible loss of gains from stocks if there is no correction does not counter-balance the thought of having my current assets halved or worse from another market downturn.* I'd rather make little than lose most.*
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Re: Another Bear Market Looming?
Old 07-08-2006, 11:15 AM   #16
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Re: Another Bear Market Looming?

Also, I think that you forgot that the "Plunge Prevention Team" or the PPT (as we call it around here) is on the patrol..... 8)
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Re: Another Bear Market Looming?
Old 07-08-2006, 02:53 PM   #17
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Re: Another Bear Market Looming?

Quote:
There has been a Bear Market looming ever since I started investing
ditto.* i'm in "the market", so it must be that i'm resonably optimistic going forward.* the time to worry is not when folks are wringing their hands and hucksters are selling you on some bear-proof strategies, but rather when everyone thinks it's going to double and the hucksters are selling you on some strategy to double that!

no one knows where the market is headed.* if it falls, it presents a buying opportunity.* if it rises, there's an opportunity to rebalance and sell high.
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Re: Another Bear Market Looming?
Old 07-08-2006, 03:46 PM   #18
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Re: Another Bear Market Looming?

I agree. The S&P 500 trades with a P/E of 15. That's the cheapest its been in years. Also companies are flush with cash after 12 quarters of double digit proft digit growth.
There might be a bubble in small caps, housing or gold. but I see large cap stock as being cheap. I may eat my words... but I see very little downside risk.
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Re: Another Bear Market Looming?
Old 07-08-2006, 07:35 PM   #19
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Re: Another Bear Market Looming?

Wow. You guys have made me feel much safer.

Especially the part about if it goes down, that is good; and yet again, if it goes up, that is also good.

So it's all good.

Ha
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Re: Another Bear Market Looming?
Old 07-08-2006, 09:31 PM   #20
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Re: Another Bear Market Looming?

the author has (wiggin) has correctly predicted 27 of the last 3 bear markets.... :
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