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12-22-2008, 03:32 PM
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#21
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 433
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Quote:
Originally Posted by haha
the most subtle sarcasm I have ever seen.Ha
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I appreciate that type of writing. A product of Keynes intelligence and upper-middle class English upbringing. Maybe a slight taste of his gay wit too.
I do not agree with Keynesian economics particularly but the man had a mind and has influenced many modern governments' approach to political economy.
My own sarcasm has all the refinement of a Chicago policeman's bloody truncheon.
__________________
Consult with only myself as your adviser or representative. My thoughts should be construed as investment advice of the highest caliber. Past performance is but a pale shadow and guarantee of even greater results in the future.
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12-22-2008, 03:34 PM
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#22
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Texas: No Country for Old Men
Posts: 50,021
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Quote:
Originally Posted by barbarus
My own sarcasm has all the refinement of a Chicago policeman's bloody truncheon.
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No argument here...
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Numbers is hard
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12-22-2008, 07:36 PM
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#23
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Far NW 'burbs of Chicago
Posts: 898
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Quote:
Originally Posted by barbarus
...
My own sarcasm has all the refinement of a Chicago policeman's bloody truncheon.
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You're behind the times, it's Tasers now days.
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12-22-2008, 09:11 PM
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#24
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: ENE MO - near STL
Posts: 424
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12-23-2008, 03:40 AM
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#25
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 4,764
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Good news 500 to 0 isn't that far. Time to go back to work Where is that retiring is unpatriotic thread.
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12-23-2008, 07:58 AM
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#26
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Recycles dryer sheets
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 131
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ed_The_Gypsy
Shilling made a comment something to the effect that all stocks [growth, value, income, international, etc.] were the same asset class. I found this interesting. The point being, if the bottom drops out, all equities go down.
All of my equity assets [value, international, income, REITs] have declined roughly the same amount, while the bonds and CDs have held up. Big Duh.
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Yea, an unfortunate side effect of the tech boom is that it's trivially easy for previously uncorrelated asset classes to correlate. Just a click of the button and you can move billions across the globe. The other effect is all the hot money running around tends to end up on the same side of the same trade, according to Shilling. When that trade goes south, investors (hedgies) have to sell something unrelated to meet margin. Thus a bad trade in Dubai stocks means selling in US corn futures.
Quote:
Originally Posted by haha
Keynes also termed market timing "credit cycle investing". He tried it in the early 30s, and abandoned it because he couldn't make it work for him.
There is a 12 volume biography and collection of Keynes, with many all of his works, much of his correspondence, etc.
I read the volume most concerned with investing AFAIK #8. That is where the above observation is found.
Wonderful writing too- the most subtle sarcasm I have ever seen.
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I'll have to see if I can find a copy at a library around here.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ziggy29
(3) The "permabulls" don't tend to have an I-told-you-so attitude toward people who were more bearish when they were right. People who push gloomy forecasts are much more likely, in my experience, to say "I told you so" and taunt those who didn't follow their forecasts. Nobody likes to have salt poured on a wound.
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Fair enough. But there is an equivalent which is the ridicule that the bear gets from the bull. I'm usually an optimist, but I turned very pessimistic a few years ago. I was looking for discussion on these ideas, but live people I talked to acted like I should be sent to a mental institution. Online people openly said I had a tin foil hat, etc. etc. So when the bear is right it's hard to resist pointing out they were correct, because the bear had salt, well, thrown in their face I guess.
Personally though my bearish bets are all over and I'm looking forward to getting back into the bull camp, maybe next year.
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12-23-2008, 11:40 AM
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#27
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: minnesota
Posts: 13,228
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Architect
Fair enough. But there is an equivalent which is the ridicule that the bear gets from the bull. I'm usually an optimist, but I turned very pessimistic a few years ago. I was looking for discussion on these ideas, but live people I talked to acted like I should be sent to a mental institution. Online people openly said I had a tin foil hat, etc. etc. So when the bear is right it's hard to resist pointing out they were correct, because the bear had salt, well, thrown in their face I guess.
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I never much liked the tin foil hat adage and yes, we can get into group think here.
So, for you bears who had salt thrown in your faces:
You were right. The market was too high. We know you were right because the market dropped substantially. Now go out and buy some undervalued stocks. You may get rich off of this. I won't. I don't have the cash to spend on stocks.
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No more lawyer stuff, no more political stuff, so no more CYA
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12-23-2008, 11:42 AM
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#28
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: minnesota
Posts: 13,228
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Architect
Fair enough. But there is an equivalent which is the ridicule that the bear gets from the bull. I'm usually an optimist, but I turned very pessimistic a few years ago. I was looking for discussion on these ideas, but live people I talked to acted like I should be sent to a mental institution. Online people openly said I had a tin foil hat, etc. etc. So when the bear is right it's hard to resist pointing out they were correct, because the bear had salt, well, thrown in their face I guess.
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I never much liked the tin foil hat adage and yes, we can get into group think here.
So, for you bears who had salt thrown in your faces:
You were right. The market was too high. We know you were right because the market dropped substantially. Now go out and buy some undervalued stocks. You may get rich off of this. I won't. I don't have the cash to spend on stocks.
__________________
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No more lawyer stuff, no more political stuff, so no more CYA
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12-23-2008, 11:57 AM
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#29
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 3,895
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ok ok ok, i'm buying (just as soon as it drops another 30%)
__________________
"off with their heads"~~dr. joseph-ignace guillotin
"life should begin with age and its privileges and accumulations, and end with youth and its capacity to splendidly enjoy such advantages."~~mark twain - letter to edward kimmitt 1901
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