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Old 09-09-2019, 04:57 PM   #21
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^^^ Sounds reasonable to me. Now, how much dough should we blow?

I went to the calculator, kept everything default, but changed the starting age to 60 to represent many people here, and changed the 4% WR to 9% WR.

Whoo Wee! In 20 years, at 80 years of age, the risk of bankruptcy is now equal the risk of death. That should be enough, yes?

And posters here who are older than 60 can go to a lot higher WR yet.
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Old 09-09-2019, 05:17 PM   #22
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This isn't new. CCCA over at MMM posted this tool well over a year ago. He's added some features since it first came out that weren't in the original version, such as being able to add additional income like SS beginning at a later date, which made the tool much better for my use.

As for the "overwhelming" death wedge, that's the point. And if you don't want to see it, it takes one click to remove it from the graphic.

Anyway, just one more confirmation that retiring in my mid 50's at 4% WR should work out just fine with a conservative AA even if my SS benefit @65 gets a 25% haircut from the currently calculated benefit.
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Old 09-09-2019, 05:23 PM   #23
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This isn't new. CCCA over at MMM posted this tool well over a year ago. He's added some features since it first came out that weren't in the original version, such as being able to add additional income like SS beginning at a later date, which made is much better for my use.
Who said it was new? Just not referenced here often if at all...
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Old 09-09-2019, 05:37 PM   #24
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OK. So perhaps I do not want to add the worry of bankruptcy to make it equal the risk of death at 80. I don't think dying rich is that bad, compared to dying poor.

But then, I recall that by delaying SS to 70, I can survive on that and will not be homeless, even if I totally spend down my stash.

So, what does 9% WR gives me in dollar amount? Whoo Wee again. That's a lot of money, considering that my last 12-month WR is less than 3%. It's 2.6% to be exact.
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Old 09-09-2019, 05:46 PM   #25
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So, what does 9% WR gives me in dollar amount? Whoo Wee again. That's a lot of money, considering that my last 12-month WR is less than 3%. It's 2.6% to be exact.
Well, with that WR you can buy the BIG RV and hire a full time driver!
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Old 09-09-2019, 05:51 PM   #26
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Blowin' that dough isn't for the timid! Takes willful abandon and lust for life.

Dying broke is not something I worry about.
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Old 09-09-2019, 06:39 PM   #27
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Well, with that WR you can buy the BIG RV and hire a full time driver!
Hah! Big RVs are not for me anyway.

I tried to talk my wife into a new class B based on the dually-rear-wheel Sprinter chassis, and she asked "what's wrong with our class C now?"

That's a fraction of the 9%WR, and it would be for just one year.

I guess if I really want one, I will tell her I am going by myself on a trip, take a flight to an out-of-town dealer and drive one back.
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Old 09-09-2019, 07:21 PM   #28
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Blowin' that dough isn't for the timid! Takes willful abandon and lust for life.

Dying broke is not something I worry about.
I dunno. I can only eat and drink so much.

And even with travel, it can be tiring too, unless I can have enough to charter a jet, which is only in my dream. And then, I like to travel on my own, do my own driving and hiking/walking around, and that requires health more than money.

At some point, just staying home to surf the Web and playing with my electronic projects is enough, and I am getting to that point.
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Old 09-10-2019, 12:58 PM   #29
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Nice calculator, thanks for posting. That website had another interesting calculator for those looking to retire early for an indefinite number of years. Example of someone with 1 Million saved, spending 4K per month, and assuming a withdrawal rate of 3.5%:

https://engaging-data.com/freedom-ca...d=48000&wr=3.5
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Old 09-10-2019, 01:03 PM   #30
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Nice calculator, thanks for posting. That website had another interesting calculator for those looking to retire early for an indefinite number of years. Example of someone with 1 Million saved, spending 4K per month, and assuming a withdrawal rate of 3.5%:

https://engaging-data.com/freedom-ca...d=48000&wr=3.5
Thanks, that is interesting. I clicked on the home page and found LOTS of calculators, most not retirement related. New to me.

I just redid our numbers using the Rich, Broke or Dead calculator from the OP, and got end of plan portfolio probability percentages of:

Inflation adjusted:
  • 2% less than original portfolio
  • 63% greater than original portfolio (LT 2X)
  • 35% more than 2X greater than original portfolio
  • 0% more than 5X greater than original portfolio
Nominal:
  • 0% less than original portfolio
  • 3% greater than (LT 2X)
  • 65% more than 2X greater
  • 32% more than 5X greater
Just another way to view/slice the outlook.

Out of curiosity I also looked to see when I'd be dead for certain, assuming it would never show 100% - but it came back at 106 years old.
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Old 09-10-2019, 01:29 PM   #31
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Thanks for the calculator page link. I enjoyed even just the first page. I sent it on to my adult son who has really gotten into saving, and cash projections, and possibly early retirement.
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Old 09-12-2019, 06:52 AM   #32
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I disagree. Keeping the probability of death active visualizes something we all know but actively do not acknowledge.
The Reaper is waiting. You do not have to plan for eternity.
I can't agree with this at all. The math sounds right, but it makes no sense to apply that math to this case.


I'll use an analogy I've used before. Imagine you have a very important meeting in two days @ 11AM. Due to previous, important events, you can't leave before 10 AM.

You figure you only have a 10% chance of making it to the meeting on time. Now you notice the gas in your tank is low. You calculate have a 10% chance of running out of gas on the way to this important meeting.

Do you discount the need to fill up your tank, based on the fact you probably won't make it to the meeting anyhow? Of course not. You plan for the case that you do make it to the meeting, and you try to remove other obstacles.

For most, planning for age 100 is not that much more portfolio/less spending than planning for 90, so it's not a huge obstacle.

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Old 09-12-2019, 07:02 AM   #33
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If I hit the 75% chance I should be dead age I'll cut back my spending. It'll mean a boring life from 85 on, but that's the price I'll pay.
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I can't agree with this at all. The math sounds right, but it makes no sense to apply that math to this case.


I'll use an analogy I've used before. Imagine you have a very important meeting in two days @ 11AM. Due to previous, important events, you can't leave before 10 AM.

You figure you only have a 10% chance of making it to the meeting on time. Now you notice the gas in your tank is low. You calculate have a 10% chance of running out of gas on the way to this important meeting.

Do you discount the need to fill up your tank, based on the fact you probably won't make it to the meeting anyhow? Of course not. You plan for the case that you do make it to the meeting, and you try to remove other obstacles.

For most, planning for age 100 is not that much more portfolio/less spending than planning for 90, so it's not a huge obstacle.

-ERD50
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Old 09-12-2019, 07:47 AM   #34
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They are multiple roads to a financially successful retirement. I think it is useful for people contemplating when to pull the trigger to view the finances of it multiple ways. By having multiple ways of viewing it, one increases their own comfort level, and in doing do decreases risk, by understanding what it all means. Three ways I look at things include:
1. Liberal way. (This threads calculator). Rich, Broke, or Dead. It shows clearly for most that by using a relatively safe withdraw rate one is far more likely to die than run out of money. Results in one thinking "life is short".
2. Moderate way. (Historical view). Basically firecalc. Fairly conservative, but relies on history to guide. What if the future is completely different (worse) than history?
3. Super Conservative way. (Monte Carlo). Basically using a random returns generator, combined with standard deviations to generate random events. Can help one see there are possible black swans. Can use "Flexible Retirement Planner" to do this. Requires the most knowledge and skill to use. Caution "Garbage in = Garbage out" (if you don't understand the numbers you enter, your results won't have valid meaning).

Everyone is different in their risk and comfort levels, but I think trying all three can give one a well rounded perspective.
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Old 09-12-2019, 07:53 AM   #35
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If I hit the 75% chance I should be dead age I'll cut back my spending. It'll mean a boring life from 85 on, but that's the price I'll pay.
And I choose to plan for the case where I/DW turn 85 and need to spend more for our care. We might need to pay for many services, or for in-home care in order to maintain a decent quality of life.

I've seen that happen as people age. I'm not going to ignore it. Life can be miserable in old age w/o the resources for things to bring comfort.

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Old Yesterday, 07:52 AM   #36
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Yup. It’s funny how people have less of an issue spending their savings in fun stuff, or food, etc, but begrudgingly when it is for payment of services such as health care or LTC which acknowledges that your life is nearing the end.

My father in poor health is in a fit when we talk about paying for CCF or even daily nurses above what his SS and Medicare cover. He doesn’t want to “waste” his savings. The fact that he doesn’t have much longer to live and THAT is what the savings is for is entirely over his head.
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Old Yesterday, 08:10 AM   #37
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I donít understand some of the calculator. Why does it show 14% withdrawal rate when I input my numbers with a 2.2% WR? That makes no sense. Unless it is because I inputed an added $50k expense (added amount for HC/LTC) starting at age 85?
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Old Yesterday, 08:11 AM   #38
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Yup. It’s funny how people have less of an issue spending their savings in fun stuff, or food, etc, but begrudgingly when it is for payment of services such as health care or LTC which acknowledges that your life is nearing the end.

My father in poor health is in a fit when we talk about paying for CCF or even daily nurses above what his SS and Medicare cover. He doesn’t want to “waste” his savings. The fact that he doesn’t have much longer to live and THAT is what the savings is for is entirely over his head.
I had a great-uncle who was a miser.... living with a 4-burner stove with only 2 working burners was a badge of honor in his mind.

His wife died first and he did well for a while but as his health declined it became apparent that he needed to into a nursing home because he could not live on his own. He refused because he had money and it would "cost too much". Ditto with help in the home. End up living a horrible last few months, sometimes in his own feces. Totally stupid.

So now rather than going to pay for his care in his last months of life some of that money is going up his addict grand-daughter's nose.
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Old Yesterday, 08:16 AM   #39
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Yup. Itís funny how people have less of an issue spending their savings in fun stuff, or food, etc, but begrudgingly when it is for payment of services such as health care or LTC which acknowledges that your life is nearing the end.

I've observed the same thing among people who are around ER age. They continue to work because they "need the cheap health insurance", even though they clearly are in a financial situation where they could bear the full cost. But to me, health insurance is just another expense, no different than any other kind of spending.
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Old Yesterday, 10:19 AM   #40
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Thanks for posting. I remember discussion of this site 3-4 years ago and the death wedge.



I calculated for a 25% reduction in SS as a high end at just over $100K withdrawals per year. I also calculated for loosing the state pension and 25% reduction in SS as a low end at just over $70K per year. I retired at the beginning of this year and currently withdrawing at the low end plan.
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