Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Re: Another new thread-- Bernstein's asset allocat
Old 03-03-2004, 06:59 AM   #21
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
wabmester's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Posts: 4,459
Re: Another new thread-- Bernstein's asset allocat

Quote:
Quick question - What does the acronym "MPT" stand for?
Modern Portfolio Theory -- you know, the efficient frontier and the rest of that historical data massaging.
__________________

__________________
wabmester is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Re: Another new thread-- Bernstein's asset allocat
Old 03-03-2004, 07:07 AM   #22
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Telly's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Posts: 1,448
Re: Another new thread-- Bernstein's asset allocat

Duh! Thanks wab!
__________________

__________________
-- Telly, the D-I-Y guy --
Two fools dancing on the hands of time
Telly is offline   Reply With Quote
Re:  "Stocks for the Long Run?"  (Maybe not.)
Old 03-03-2004, 10:22 AM   #23
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
cute fuzzy bunny's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Losing my whump
Posts: 22,697
Re:  "Stocks for the Long Run?"  (Maybe not.)

Quote:
and it is a big BUTT for me
Hey, can we have this conversation without talking about ANYONES big butt?

Once again I'm fascinated with the range of experience, knowledge, techniques and approaches. Just reading this thread is a learning experience.

But I think Bogle has bitten me. Because reading all this makes me inspired and encourages me to do all sorts of different things. But instead I'm going to go skating, and the dog is telling me to ignore the fact that her brother is out cold sleeping on his back, its time for a walk!
__________________
Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. Just another form of "buy low, sell high" for those who have trouble with things. This rule is not universal. Do not buy a 1973 Pinto because everyone else is afraid of it.
cute fuzzy bunny is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Another new thread-- Bernstein's asset allocat
Old 03-03-2004, 10:30 AM   #24
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Mesa
Posts: 3,588
Re: Another new thread-- Bernstein's asset allocat

Quote:
I was kinda hoping for More Pork Tacos *:-/
That reminds me . . . I head a recipe the other day that explained how to make taco shells out of old dryer sheets.
__________________
sgeeeee is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Another new thread-- Bernstein's asset allocat
Old 03-03-2004, 03:01 PM   #25
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
cute fuzzy bunny's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Losing my whump
Posts: 22,697
Re: Another new thread-- Bernstein's asset allocat

Darn it, you guys are doing this all backwards!

We NEED to figure out how to make dryer sheets out of taco shells, not the other way around!

Just think about it, the luxury of using an ENTIRE sheet for each and every load.

My dryer would exude softness!

A fine alternative would be finding a way to make beer out of dryer sheets. Or taco shells.
__________________
Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. Just another form of "buy low, sell high" for those who have trouble with things. This rule is not universal. Do not buy a 1973 Pinto because everyone else is afraid of it.
cute fuzzy bunny is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Another new thread-- Bernstein's asset allocat
Old 03-03-2004, 09:04 PM   #26
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Mesa
Posts: 3,588
Re: Another new thread-- Bernstein's asset allocat

Lots of good ideas and great discussion in this thread. Here's some of my simple thoughts.

1) Investing in the US economic engine is still the best investment going. The wind may be taken out of her sails by Japan or India or China for 5 or 10 years at a time, but the US economic/political/social structure has such great advantage that it's still the long term best bet. That's why the US stock market keeps going up in the long run.

2) Diversification (asset allocation) is the best way to get through the rough spots in the long term upward climb.

3) The optimum diversification (asset allocation) has been different for every rough spot in the past and it is likely to be different still for the next one. Asset allocation prescriptions are arrived at through a minipulation of some part of historical data that may or may not be ideal for the future. Although I am often convinced in the short run (right after I've read the reasoning) that some author has a good plan, I always find holes in the logic when I start looking at the prescription more closely. I don't take any of them too seriously. After points 1 and 2, and reading a few prescriptions for asset allocation, you may as well develop your own. When you read all the prescriptions used by all the successful investors on this board, it should be clear that it is points 1 and 2 that matter -- not the details of asset allocation.

The posters of this board may now begin calling me names and spitting on me.
__________________
sgeeeee is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Another new thread-- Bernstein's asset allocat
Old 03-03-2004, 09:45 PM   #27
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
wabmester's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Posts: 4,459
Re: Another new thread-- Bernstein's asset allocat

Quote:
The Market is like a man walking a dog from Point A to Point B with a 100 foot leash.
Quote:
Like a dog and it's shadow, I don't believe that the shadow is a limiting factor in it's growth.
A dog that always walks up hill eventually becomes tired.
__________________
wabmester is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Another new thread-- Bernstein's asset allocat
Old 03-03-2004, 09:57 PM   #28
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Mesa
Posts: 3,588
Re: Another new thread-- Bernstein's asset allocat

Quote:


A dog that always walks up hill eventually becomes tired.
The market is like a dryer sheet in the hands of a serious ER. . . It never becomes tired.
__________________
sgeeeee is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Another new thread-- Bernstein's asset allocat
Old 03-03-2004, 11:27 PM   #29
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
cute fuzzy bunny's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Losing my whump
Posts: 22,697
Re: Another new thread-- Bernstein's asset allocat

Quote:
Lots of good ideas and great discussion in this thread. Here's some of my simple thoughts.

1) Investing in the US economic engine is still the best investment going. The wind may be taken out of her sails by Japan or India or China for 5 or 10 years at a time, but the US economic/political/social structure has such great advantage that it's still the long term best bet. That's why the US stock market keeps going up in the long run.

2) Diversification (asset allocation) is the best way to get through the rough spots in the long term upward climb.

3) The optimum diversification (asset allocation) has been different for every rough spot in the past and it is likely to be different still for the next one. Asset allocation prescriptions are arrived at through a minipulation of some part of historical data that may or may not be ideal for the future. Although I am often convinced in the short run (right after I've read the reasoning) that some author has a good plan, I always find holes in the logic when I start looking at the prescription more closely. I don't take any of them too seriously. After points 1 and 2, and reading a few prescriptions for asset allocation, you may as well develop your own. When you read all the prescriptions used by all the successful investors on this board, it should be clear that it is points 1 and 2 that matter -- not the details of asset allocation.

The posters of this board may now begin calling me names and spitting on me.
Ptui. I fart in your general direction...

What about the arguments that the first long legs of the US stock market were our maturation as an economy, followed by the second set of long legs our integration into the world economy. I know some writers claim the US stock market is nearing a point where it may peak and shoulder along for a considerable period of time. Same writers are suggesting an allocation that includes no more than 25-30% US stocks, particularly large caps. Suggestions are to look more towards europe, which may be where the US was before we hit our second long leg of upward movement, japan where their first set of legs got cut out from them, and emerging markets where the maturation is just beginning and upside is highest.
__________________
Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. Just another form of "buy low, sell high" for those who have trouble with things. This rule is not universal. Do not buy a 1973 Pinto because everyone else is afraid of it.
cute fuzzy bunny is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Another new thread-- Bernstein's asset allocat
Old 03-04-2004, 06:30 AM   #30
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Kansas City
Posts: 7,408
Re: Another new thread-- Bernstein's asset allocat

Dryer Sheet King! Name calling at its best.

Now for salary guru - Points one and two. DeGaul got it right and Bernstein defers to Angus Madison and his world country data/books. Egypt and Argentina leap readily to mind - Japan is a recent rookie. I also favor Bogle's old view - USA.
Let Companies with overseas earnings work the currency and diversification issues for you - buy total stock index at the lowest cost possible for your equity.

Point three is a male hormone thing - even Bernstein a rational math/stat/data guy has to play hence the asset classes, historical data and hindsight. BTY - I did all that stuff (5-8 vg. funds/asset classes) when I first retired (93) until I slowly came around - still not pure - Lifestrategy has asset allocation and foreign holdings. Monty Python's search for the holy grail is alive and well in my 'hobby stocks'. Just finished 'The Warren Buffett Way' and will be off looking for 'a few good buys'. My dividend/DRIP stocks did the job the first ten years of ER and now with pension and SS in two years - ready to rock in hobby stocks -

?what's shaking in the dryer sheet/clothesline/clothes pin sector - any good values?
__________________
unclemick is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Another new thread-- Bernstein's asset allocat
Old 03-04-2004, 09:32 AM   #31
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Mesa
Posts: 3,588
Re: Another new thread-- Bernstein's asset allocat

Quote:

Ptui. *I fart in your general direction...
Ha, I was wearing a raincoat and a mask.

Quote:
What about the arguments that the first long legs of the US stock market were our maturation as an economy, followed by the second set of long legs our integration into the world economy. *I know some writers claim the US stock market is nearing a point where it may peak and shoulder along for a considerable period of time. *Same writers are suggesting an allocation that includes no more than 25-30% US stocks, particularly large caps. *Suggestions are to look more towards europe, which may be where the US was before we hit our second long leg of upward movement, japan where their first set of legs got cut out from them, and emerging markets where the maturation is just beginning and upside is highest.
There are lots of qualitative arguments for less than optimum news in the near future. But "less than optimum" does not need to mean doom and gloom. I've spent time in europe -- Great Brittain, Spain, France, Italy. It's a great place with lots of smart people and great potential, but they don't have an economic/political/cultural environment as promising as the US. The US has some stumbling blocks between it and another great bull market. But, geez . . ., so does europe. India and China have incredible potential to grow their economies in the near future and this will affect US growth too. But if you think we have stumbling blocks to long term success, take a look at these two. Plus . . . parts of the US economy will benefit from the growth in these places. I can believe we may see average stock return over the next 5 to 7 years (maybe even 8 to 10) that are below the norm. Bogle has suggested from his analysis that we should expect 6% to 9% over the next decade. Buffet has made statements that are consistent with this. That number seems reasonable to me and is still well above the worst case tested by FIRECalc when you run a simulation. I feel more comfortable with that kind of expectation than I do with a vague reccomendation to buy europe.
__________________
sgeeeee is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Another new thread-- Bernstein's asset allocat
Old 03-04-2004, 10:49 AM   #32
 
Posts: n/a
Re: Another new thread-- Bernstein's asset allocat

Hi Cut-throat! to comment on your post of March 2
re. "unpredictability" and stocks. Even if I knew for
sure that stocks would do better than what I have (in
"the long haul"), I still would not switch. You see, I no
longer have a "long haul" to work with. That makes all the difference.

John Galt
__________________
  Reply With Quote
Re: Another new thread-- Bernstein's asset allocat
Old 03-04-2004, 11:12 AM   #33
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Mesa
Posts: 3,588
Re: Another new thread-- Bernstein's asset allocat

Quote:
Dryer Sheet King! Name calling at its best.
. . .
?what's shaking in the dryer sheet/clothesline/clothes pin sector - any good values?
I hope this isn't one of those sectors that gets hit hard by outsourcing.
__________________
sgeeeee is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Another new thread-- Bernstein's asset allocat
Old 03-04-2004, 12:48 PM   #34
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
cute fuzzy bunny's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Losing my whump
Posts: 22,697
Re: Another new thread-- Bernstein's asset allocat

Hmmm...tacos....dogs...Yo Quiro Taco Bell?

Makes me wonder about the viability of the Demolition Man portfolio where you invest everything in taco bell because its the only restaurant still existing in the future...
__________________
Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. Just another form of "buy low, sell high" for those who have trouble with things. This rule is not universal. Do not buy a 1973 Pinto because everyone else is afraid of it.
cute fuzzy bunny is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Another new thread-- Bernstein's asset allocat
Old 03-04-2004, 09:05 PM   #35
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
wabmester's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Posts: 4,459
Re: Another new thread-- Bernstein's asset allocat

Quote:
Investing in the US economic engine is still the best investment going.
I agree with this, but all empires peak at some point. The US still has a good head of steam, but we should closely watch what happens to the economies of Japan and Germany in the coming decade. Their demographic trends are similar to ours, but the magnitude and timeframe of their problem is *much* more severe than ours. Japan may already be in decline.

I'm somewhat gun-shy of equities partly because of my almost 20-year investment in Japanese equities that has gone absolutely nowhere. I think Japan is good example of why a "disciplined" buy-and-hold strategy can be misplaced. I no longer expect RTM to the upside for Japan. I think there are fundamental economic problems there, party reflected by negative GDP growth in recent years.

Don't make the same mistake I did. Bail from US equities while you still can! (About 30 years from now.)
__________________
wabmester is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Another new thread-- Bernstein's asset allocat
Old 03-04-2004, 10:40 PM   #36
Full time employment: Posting here.
 
Join Date: Sep 2003
Posts: 902
Re: Another new thread-- Bernstein's asset allocat

Wabmester, are you out of US equities altogether?
__________________
Bob_Smith is offline   Reply With Quote
Re: Another new thread-- Bernstein's asset allocat
Old 03-05-2004, 06:28 AM   #37
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
wabmester's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Posts: 4,459
Re: Another new thread-- Bernstein's asset allocat

Quote:
Wabmester, are you out of US equities altogether?
No, Greenspan has turned me into a market timer (OK, he didn't have to twist my arm). With help from Japan and China (building their dollar reserves), he's determined to reflate our equity bubble, and I'm not going to fight him. I've steadily increased my US equity stake over the last year, and I may buy still more. As long as interest rates stay this low, US equities are the place to be.
__________________

__________________
wabmester is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Tags
Asset Allocation


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Asset Allocation: Effective but not feasible? Hillbilly FIRE and Money 20 04-28-2007 11:02 PM
Asset Allocation Question - Deferred Compensation b3bobster FIRE and Money 1 11-06-2006 04:51 PM
Retiree Asset Allocation WilliamG FIRE and Money 37 08-29-2006 11:14 PM
Asset Allocation AV8 FIRE and Money 17 02-25-2006 08:13 PM

 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 01:30 PM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.