urn2bfree
Full time employment: Posting here.
- Joined
- Feb 14, 2011
- Messages
- 852
I was surprised to run across this article by Michael Kitces wherein he points out how incredibly conservative the 4.5% SWR actually is even in a low return environment.
And this:
The article is here:
http://www.kitces.com/blog/archives...-Safe-Withdrawal-Rates-REALLY-Based-Upon.html
if the current environment for today's retirees will result in a "new record low" safe withdrawal rate, the S&P 500 would still have to be no higher in 2027 than it was in 2007 or even 2000! On the other hand, merely projecting equities to recover to new highs by the end of the decade or generating a mid-single-digits return would actually represent an upside surprise, allowing for higher retirement spending than 4.5% safe withdrawal rates!
And this:
in point of fact, the safe withdrawal rate actually has a 96% probability of leaving more than 100% of the original starting principal!
The article is here:
http://www.kitces.com/blog/archives...-Safe-Withdrawal-Rates-REALLY-Based-Upon.html