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Old 02-17-2009, 11:04 AM   #21
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OK, they yieldED over 5%. These days, no yield is safe except for maybe Philip Morris. Smokers will probably keep smoking through a severe recession or a depression.
Hell, they might even pick up some new customers.
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Old 02-17-2009, 11:23 AM   #22
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I wonder if the euro will survive. I also wonder how a country get out of the euro and go back to their own currency.
Have you changed your mind since last October?
ECB's Nowotny Sees Global `Tri-Polar' Currency System Evolving

I suspect that it would be rather difficult diplomatically, logistically and economically for a country to get out of the Euro. But cracks are starting to show and nationalism is bound to resurface in times of crisis. So it's not surprising to hear talks about reversion to national currencies, especially at a time when national governments start feeling pressure from the streets. National currencies still exist on paper (they are currently pegged to the Euro), so reversion seems possible, at least in theory. I think that some countries are more susceptible than others to call it quits, but I also believe that the core of the Eurozone still looks solid.

To the OP,
Yes I am relatively bullish, at least compared to most TV pundits. I haven't sold anything yet, and actually I am buying more equities all the time. I am also fully rebalanced. So, dumbsh*t +1 here. But I have been lowering my cost basis considerably in the past 3 months and that should give me a better base to build juicier long term returns. At least that's the plan.
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Old 02-17-2009, 11:24 AM   #23
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Still 100% individual stocks here, 2.5 years into retirement. I have no opinion as to which way stock prices are headed, but I am not too worried. Most of the stocks I own now project slower than normal growth or even profit declines for 2009-2010, but nothing that would interfere with dividends. None of them have missed their annual dividend increase yet, although the increases are minor for most stocks (+2% for MMM last week, KO should raise theirs in the next week or so). I do monitor their earnings estimates, and re-analyze them when significant changes occur. News is watched strictly for laughs - I would not base my investing on it.
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Old 02-17-2009, 11:45 AM   #24
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Most of the stocks I own now project slower than normal growth or even profit declines for 2009-2010, but nothing that would interfere with dividends. None of them have missed their annual dividend increase yet, although the increases are minor for most stocks (+2% for MMM last week, KO should raise theirs in the next week or so).
You obviously don't own any financial stocks -- BAC, C, etc. if they're still around.

I used to immediately transfer money into our Roths but I havn't this year. I'm waiting for the cash amount to grow above my "minimum" cash level.
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Old 02-17-2009, 11:46 AM   #25
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Have you changed your mind since last October?
ECB's Nowotny Sees Global `Tri-Polar' Currency System Evolving

I suspect that it would be rather difficult diplomatically, logistically and economically for a country to get out of the Euro. But cracks are starting to show and nationalism is bound to resurface in times of crisis. So it's not surprising to hear talks about reversion to national currencies, especially at a time when national governments start feeling pressure from the streets. National currencies still exist on paper (they are currently pegged to the Euro), so reversion seems possible, at least in theory. I think that some countries are more susceptible than others to call it quits, but I also believe that the core of the Eurozone still looks solid.
October '08 seems like ages ago.

Re: Emerging Markets stocks - That is the largest stock investment I have to make. I'm guessing the buying time frame will be similar to the dollar peak.

Re: FX I think what changed is the weighting of the currencies I will put my money. I also guessing that the Euro zone has not addressed economic problems as aggressively as they should.

I'm liking the A$ & C$ better now because they have natural resources (including gold) that can be sold when the economy pick up and they are willing to raise interest rates quickly when they see signs of inflation. I don't think the USA or Euro will raise rates quickly or high enough when needed. They wouldn't want to cut the recovery short.
So my preference allocation for currencies would look something like:
1. A$ 40%
2. C$ 40%
either 1 or both
3. £ 10%
4. € 10%
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Old 02-17-2009, 11:49 AM   #26
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uber-bear Kass (or was in 2007, 2008, not any more), expects a Nov 2008 lows to hold and S&P500 to end the year up around 15% from here.

That's bullish!

Audrey
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Old 02-17-2009, 11:58 AM   #27
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uber-bear Kass (or was in 2007, 2008, not any more), expects a Nov 2008 lows to hold and S&P500 to end the year up around 15% from here.

That's bullish!

Audrey
They had better buck up then, because today both the Dow and S&P are awfully close to 52 week lows.

Ha
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Old 02-17-2009, 11:58 AM   #28
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Im getting ready to buy a little at these levels
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Old 02-17-2009, 12:00 PM   #29
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I may do some nibbling here if the lows stick until the end of day. I'll probably buy some Wellesley and collect the yield why I wait for recovery.

If we continue into a deflationary spiral, history shows that retiree's with pensions or other fixed, safe incomes, do well. People with debt, non-liquid assets, stocks etc. do poorly.

So I guess I'm cautiously defensamistic.
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Old 02-17-2009, 12:05 PM   #30
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Originally Posted by audreyh1 View Post
uber-bear Kass (or was in 2007, 2008, not any more), expects a Nov 2008 lows to hold and S&P500 to end the year up around 15% from here.

That's bullish!

Audrey
Or maybe better phrased....Bullish
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Old 02-17-2009, 12:13 PM   #31
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The more bulls are seen as part of the lunatic fringe, the better. Think about the folks predicting financial meltdown 18 months ago.
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Old 02-17-2009, 12:20 PM   #32
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Here Here, I can't take much more depressing negativity

Hopefully things will get better when the weather improves
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Old 02-17-2009, 12:31 PM   #33
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Still 100% individual stocks here, 2.5 years into retirement. I have no opinion as to which way stock prices are headed, but I am not too worried. Most of the stocks I own now project slower than normal growth or even profit declines for 2009-2010, but nothing that would interfere with dividends. None of them have missed their annual dividend increase yet, although the increases are minor for most stocks (+2% for MMM last week, KO should raise theirs in the next week or so). I do monitor their earnings estimates, and re-analyze them when significant changes occur. News is watched strictly for laughs - I would not base my investing on it.

Unfortunately, for me 1/2 dozen of my dividend paying stocks mostly financial stocks, a REIT, and a pipeline natural gas company slashed dividends. The good news the other 30 odd maintained or even modestly increased dividends. Overall my dividend income is down less than 10%, so I'll just hang and tighten the belt a bit.
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Old 02-17-2009, 12:49 PM   #34
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You obviously don't own any financial stocks -- BAC, C, etc. if they're still around.
You are correct. I sold WM in Apr 07 and C in Oct 07 when it became apparent that no-one had any idea what their assets were worth anymore. I held onto my final semi-financial GE too long, finally selling it in Nov 2008 for the same reason. Thats what I get for violating my own rules.
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Old 02-17-2009, 01:04 PM   #35
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The more it drops the more bullish i become. Just bought 80 shares of VDE on sale sale sale! Of course that's what i thought when i bought BAC at $33.05. and $25.15. and $22.06. It can't go any lower than this!! ( it's $5.01 now? errrggg.). Almost enough to make a man stick with cleaning toilets and browbeating tenants to make money.
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Old 02-17-2009, 01:06 PM   #36
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The more it drops the more bullish i become.
Well, the more the market drops, the closer it is to the eventual bottom by definition. The more it drops now, the less it can drop in the future. How's that for positive thinking?
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Old 02-17-2009, 01:19 PM   #37
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The closest I can find to bullishness these days are hints that things aren't falling apart quite as fast; that the decline is more orderly. And then we have another day like today.

I guess I might buy a bit too (a.k.a., "throw good money after bad" again). Sigh.

These last 4 or 5 months have seemed like a lifetime: a lifetime of vanishing savings!
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Old 02-17-2009, 01:21 PM   #38
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Well, the more the market drops, the closer it is to the eventual bottom by definition. The more it drops now, the less it can drop in the future. How's that for positive thinking?
Extrapolating today's ~250 point drop in the Dow we should hit 0 in a month or so at that point it will be quite safe to turn bullish.

I am busy looking for loose change in my couch's which I will use to purchase America's Fortune 500 at Dow 0. Looking forward to firing some CEOs..
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Old 02-17-2009, 01:24 PM   #39
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The more bulls are seen as part of the lunatic fringe, the better. Think about the folks predicting financial meltdown 18 months ago.
Exactly! I think we can take some comfort when the few lone voices out there that were predicting meltdown 18 months ago start voicing cautious optimism today.

Oh - it looks like the Kass article is available on the "free" part of the site. It's long, rational is later in the article and predictions are on the last page 7. Kass: Fear and Loathing on Wall Street

Audrey
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Old 02-17-2009, 01:29 PM   #40
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I'm Bullish depending on the time frame.
Over the next week to year I am not expecting any large gains in the DOW and some more bad news. In 10 years I expect we will see a lot of growth.
Like CyclingInvestor, I am almost completely in individual stocks and my dividend income over the last year is roughly flat.
Just bought some more KFT today. And wouldn't add to any banks I currently own for quite some time (not as smart as he about getting out of all of them earlier, although I did get out of a couple).
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