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Old 02-20-2009, 08:39 AM   #121
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I used to dream about having as much money as is gone from my portfolio. My equities have been cut by more than half and I was almost entirely in conservative index funds. That's why I'm thinking I'm a dumbsh*t for staying in the market. Today looks to be another bloodbath.
Same here. I've come to the conclusion that the stock market has been the biggest scam going, and I swallowed it whole. Futures 110 down right now. Why oh why I didn't follow my parents lead and just go with cd's. Before my father died he asked me not to lose all his money in the stock market. At least I didn't do that for my mother. And when I do inherit that money, I will certainly follow by his wishes.

Damn I'm an idiot.
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Old 02-20-2009, 09:01 AM   #122
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On the plus side, if equities go to zero, it's no longer possible to lose as much in 2009 as I lost in 2008.

I'm accumulating interest/dividends in my IRA where I could consider investing some of it. It is over my minimum cash balance but I am balking at doing what the "plan" says I should do. That would be to buy 100 shs of VTI. I'm thinking about buying some high grade corporate bonds. It's not really enough for a decent bond order but I can wait a few more months. I'm buying S&P index funds automatically in my 401k and SERP but I just can't stomach actually placing a new buy order.
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Old 02-20-2009, 09:02 AM   #123
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I'm buying S&P index funds automatically in my 401k and SERP but I just can't stomach actually placing a new buy order.
I know what you mean. Conventional wisdom tells me I need to rebalance but I can't deal with the thought of throwing more good money after bad. I feel like I'm bleeding to death from trying to catch too many falling knives.
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Old 02-20-2009, 09:07 AM   #124
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Dawg our situations are so close and deep down I share your sentiment.

I do think it is interesting that many of the thoughts here are that of capitulation. I would take that as a sign the bottom is somewhere in sight. Of course I could be wrong.
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Old 02-20-2009, 09:10 AM   #125
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I do think it is interesting that many of the thoughts here are that of capitulation. I would take that as a sign the bottom is somewhere in sight. Of course I could be wrong.
I don't think it's capitulation until the people who have these thoughts actually sell.
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Old 02-20-2009, 09:14 AM   #126
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I don't think it's capitulation until the people who have these thoughts actually sell.
I made my mind up long ago I would just follow it down to zero. So I guess we won't have capitulation until we get there.
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Old 02-20-2009, 09:15 AM   #127
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I made my mind up long ago I would just follow it down to zero. So I guess we won't have capitulation until we get there.
My feelings at this point are basically of resignation. If I hold it may continue to go lower and my retirement is screwed. If I sell down here I know I've locked in having my retirement be screwed. Might as well hope for the best instead of locking a 100% chance of being screwed...
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Old 02-20-2009, 10:09 AM   #128
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I'm keeping on keeping on. I just get these feelings of pointless pain being dumped on me when I could sell so easily. I know all the logic of buy and hold but I also know how its better to buy back in when its lower. Unfortunately, I don't know how much lower it can go.

Right now we have massive shorting of all the banks again. Could anyone possibly be naked shorting? The SEC is such a crack enforcement arm I doubt they would have a clue. The rumor is "nationalization" which implies a total wipeout of all large banks since they all hold each others preferreds and bonds. Kill one and kill them all is the logic. The banks for their part are denying everything but they've been in denial and denial mode for the last year. BAC and C are either DOA in a matter of days or the best investment opportunity of our lives.

I'm not going to sell (I think) but I will continue to opine. I intend to copulate all the way to the bottom.
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Old 02-20-2009, 10:21 AM   #129
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I'm thinking about buying some high grade corporate bonds. It's not really enough for a decent bond order but I can wait a few more months. I'm buying S&P index funds automatically in my 401k and SERP but I just can't stomach actually placing a new buy order.
I'm considering corporate bonds for some yield. Maybe some "trust preferred". I'm retired and these low MM & CD rates are a drag on cash flow. I'm also looking at Wellesley for a little yield. However, we should all stay mindful of that Will Rogers quote "I'm not so concerned of the return ON my money as the return OF my money"
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Old 02-20-2009, 10:26 AM   #130
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All the people that were bullish at 14K DOW are now calling the bottom.

Wonder how that will work out?

Last time this clown climbed out of his hole was March 2008 - sell off is overdone:



Guess which clown climbed out his hole yesterday saying sell off is overdone? "Massive rally on the way"

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Old 02-20-2009, 10:27 AM   #131
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Right now we have massive shorting of all the banks again. Could anyone possibly be naked shorting? The SEC is such a crack enforcement arm I doubt they would have a clue. The rumor is "nationalization" which implies a total wipeout of all large banks since they all hold each others preferreds and bonds. Kill one and kill them all is the logic.
I think this why Timmy is having a hard time coming up with a plan. Not only do banks own the preferred stock but Insurance companies own a boat load. I don't think they want to go there.
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Old 02-20-2009, 10:32 AM   #132
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Wow, this is extreme.

Just a little reality checking, if I just drew a line on a chart, it looks like we are at January 1997 levels for the S&P, does this leave out dividends? I suppose it would do to mention inflation as well.

The funny thing is, I've gotten about half a dozen people to start taking advantage of the 401k match at work in the last few weeks. If any of them say, "Hey! I lost $200! I'm not doing this anymore!" I will choke them.
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Old 02-20-2009, 10:35 AM   #133
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You just got to watch this video (and look at where the DOW and S&P 500 were trading out). Look how bullish they were - they were just about dry humping each other and their desks.

Don Luskin "This is the time to buy stocks with both hands". He was on Kudlow a couple days ago and said "when everyone does not want to own stocks, that is the time to be buying with both hands". (I can't find that video) - still looking.

Don't want to be a rear view guy but man I really wished I sold everything then. I have had about 7.3 years of working income wiped out since then.

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Old 02-20-2009, 10:38 AM   #134
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Been Down So Long It Looks Like Up to Me


Jim could very well have sang something similar he was on the floor a lot from 1969 onwards ...
Well, being on the floor a lot, would give the impression of 'beein down so long.......
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Old 02-20-2009, 10:55 AM   #135
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In response to many posts....

90% of the pundits and talking heads are wrong if they give both a number and a time frame. The 10% that are right are selected at random so 1% are right twice in a row. If someone is right three times in a row they have outperformed 99.9% of all the other talking heads. They are bestowed the title of "PROPHET."

Of course, their odds of being wrong the fourth time is still 90% but with tens of thousands of talking heads there are always a slim few that have "proven their worth consistently over time."
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Old 02-20-2009, 11:15 AM   #136
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More reinforcement on why we shouldn't listen to the "experts"...

"You've probably never wanted expert insight more than today - and never trusted it less. After all, the intelligent, articulate, well-paid authorities voicing these opinions are the ones who created the crisis or failed to predict it or lost 30% of your 401(k) in it.

Yet we can't tear ourselves away. The crisis has brought record ratings to CNBC and its parade of talking heads. You're probably still entrusting your portfolio to the experts running mutual funds. Despite everything, we can't shake the belief that elite forecasters know better than the rest of us what the future holds.

The record, unfortunately, proves no such thing...."

"We found that our experts' predictions barely beat random guesses - the statistical equivalent of a dart-throwing chimp - and proved no better than predictions of reasonably well-read nonexperts. Ironically, the more famous the expert, the less accurate his or her predictions tended to be."

Philip Tetlock on expert predictions on the economy - Feb. 18, 2009
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Old 02-20-2009, 11:16 AM   #137
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The crisis has brought record ratings to CNBC and its parade of talking heads.
Yep. Which in turn encourages more doomsday reporting, causing the markets to fall even more, causing unemployment to rise even more... and bringing more record ratings to CNBC.

Rinse, lather, repeat...
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Old 02-20-2009, 11:20 AM   #138
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More reinforcement on why we shouldn't listen to the "experts"...

"You've probably never wanted expert insight more than today - and never trusted it less. After all, the intelligent, articulate, well-paid authorities voicing these opinions are the ones who created the crisis or failed to predict it or lost 30% of your 401(k) in it.

Yet we can't tear ourselves away. The crisis has brought record ratings to CNBC and its parade of talking heads. You're probably still entrusting your portfolio to the experts running mutual funds. Despite everything, we can't shake the belief that elite forecasters know better than the rest of us what the future holds.

The record, unfortunately, proves no such thing...."

"We found that our experts' predictions barely beat random guesses - the statistical equivalent of a dart-throwing chimp - and proved no better than predictions of reasonably well-read nonexperts. Ironically, the more famous the expert, the less accurate his or her predictions tended to be."

Philip Tetlock on expert predictions on the economy - Feb. 18, 2009
What he said...

Two pertinent topics on CNNMoney
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Old 02-20-2009, 12:06 PM   #139
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Im getting greedy
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Old 02-20-2009, 12:27 PM   #140
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It's easy to get your bullishness stomped out on a day like today.

It's like last fall; and it gets discouraging.

Ha
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