Any Bulls Left?

[2B]

I have not heard one TV or radio pundit sound like a bull. The best I've heard is vague comments like "it will turn around eventually but I don't know when." I've heard numerous people say the "buy and hold is dead and anyone still in the market is a dumbsh*t."

Looking at the credit and political events, things do look bad and will probably get a lot worse. Has the end of the world been built into stock prices or is it still to come?

I'm still sitting on my ever dwindling stock portfolio felling like a dumbsh*t.

[W2R]

Quote:

Originally Posted by 2B I have not heard one TV or radio pundit sound like a bull. The best I've heard is vague comments like "it will turn around eventually but I don't know when." I've heard numerous people say the "buy and hold is dead and anyone still in the market is a dumbsh*t." Looking at the credit and political events, things do look bad and will probably get a lot worse. Has the end of the world been built into stock prices or is it still to come? I'm still sitting on my ever dwindling stock portfolio felling like a dumbsh*t.

Me, too, but what else can we do? Sell low? Not going to do it.

There are still bulls out there and there are still "end-of-the-universe" people out there. I am not convinced that columnists or radio and TV personalities know much more than we do, though. Columnists are just looking for headlines that will help their circulation statistics, IMO, and radio and TV personalities have similar motives.

What amazes me is that massive future inflation is not expected by all columnists and radio and TV personalities. I never expected the housing collapse (malfunctioning crystal ball, here) but I have been expecting inflation for some time. So far, so good. I can't help but hope that I am wrong about it.

[Stevewc]

Quote:

Originally Posted by 2B I'm still sitting on my ever dwindling stock portfolio felling like a dumbsh*t.

I'm still holding all my stocks. I continued to buy on the dips all the way down. If things get worse I plan to buy more. I may be dumb but my cost per share has gotten better and better. I basically buy total US stock index and a FTSE foreign index fund.
Here's to hoping it pays off for me,
Steve

[2B]

I keep buying about $2,000 worth of S&P500 index funds every 2 weeks in my SERP and 401k and I feel like a dumbsh*t doing it.

Most of the pundits miss every major move and then try to pretend that they told us it was going to happen long before it did. There's one guy on the afternoon radio with a 2 hour show. He alternates between predicting a big rally and a collapse - sometime during the same show. He has the best library of tapes having him call future market moves correctly.

Have we capitulated yet?

[ikubak]

I have always been an optimist and I guess I still am. The difference is I used to expect things to get better and now I'm starting to think this will be one of the best depressions we've ever had.

I am a news junkie and these days it is hard to find anyone spouting good news. Even the optimists say things are going to get ugly before they get better. I used to think americans refinancing their mortgages, paying less at the gas pump and increasing their savings rate was a good thing, but the talking heads are saying we need to be spending our money. I guess if the american public won't spend themselves into oblivion, the government will do it for us.

I don't know what the answer is to get the world out of this funk, but I'll just keep doing what I've always done, save and invest.

[ziggy29]

I'm holding and buying more in my 401K since new money is steadily coming in, but no rebalancing in my other accounts for now. I'm sick of all the bleeding from the cuts inflicted by falling knives. My largest IRA is down to 53% stocks (from about 70% 15 months ago) and I have no intention of rebalancing it any time soon. I know some say I should be doing it, but I'm tired of watching good money go after bad.

[tryan]

Got Brinker's monthly MarketTimer ... says there will be a test of the market low then up from there. Says 2009 will be a good year. Does not expect the low to be violated.

Yeah, I know: financial porn.

[Dog]

I agree - it is very discouraging. It doesn't help that our leadership is so negative, even admitting that they don't know what to do (other then spend money). I wonder what would happen if everyone quit obsessing about the state of the economy? What ever happen to the war in IRAQ?

[ziggy29]

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dog I wonder what would happen if everyone quit obsessing about the state of the economy?

Unfortunately, with the Internet and the 24/7 TV news media, that genie is out of the bottle. It's much tougher to just live your life without being bombarded without constant doom, gloom and negativity, which likely only makes it worse.

[Dawg52]

Quote:

Originally Posted by 2B I'm still sitting on my ever dwindling stock portfolio felling like a dumbsh*t.

Same here. DOW futures down 195 at this moment. Let the food riots begin.

[Frugality_of_Apathy]

DOW's going to 50,000 tomorrow*!







*Assuming tomorrow means April 13th 2035

[ikubak]

Just for fun I bought some emerging market etfs this morning. They've been slaughtered and are yielding over 5%. This move practically guarantees they will go much lower.

[2B]

Quote:

Originally Posted by ikubak Just for fun I bought some emerging market etfs this morning. They've been slaughtered and are yielding over 5%. This move practically guarantees they will go much lower.

You are mistaken about the yield. Last year they had a distribution that works out to 5% based on the current ETF price. That certainly included distributions and possibly return of capital. You can't "bank" the distributions of these funds. It's a long time until December.

[ziggy29]

Quote:

Originally Posted by ikubak Just for fun I bought some emerging market etfs this morning. They've been slaughtered and are yielding over 5%. This move practically guarantees they will go much lower.

When they bottom -- whenever that is -- REITs are going to be a screaming long-term bargain; they've been trashed even more than emerging markets. They're off 2/3 from their highs. When the leverage is wrung out and occupancy rates turn around, the value and dividend yields will be unreal. The problem is, where is that bottom and how close are we?

And for the very bold, global REITs are down more than 75% from the 2007 highs.

As for the yield, this is based on the current market value and the past 12 months of dividends actually paid out, which are likely to get cut in the next 12 months.

[Independent]

I'm still waiting for Business Week to have a cover story titled "The Death of Equities".

[ikubak]

OK, they yieldED over 5%. These days, no yield is safe except for maybe Philip Morris. Smokers will probably keep smoking through a severe recession or a depression.

[saluki9]

Quote:

Originally Posted by ikubak OK, they yieldED over 5%. These days, no yield is safe except for maybe Philip Morris. Smokers will probably keep smoking through a severe recession or a depression.

Hell, they might even pick up some new customers.

[dex]

Not that I know anything ... I think there is more downside.
I'm looking at the relationship between the foreign exchange market and the US stock market.
It seems as if there is an inverse relationship for this market action - Dollar up; stock market down. We are close to the last high. But I think the Dollar will surpass that. Read the recent stories about the euro and the pound.
$INDU - SharpCharts from StockCharts.com
Bloomberg.com: Economy

I haven't sold anything. I have a very small amount to put into the market - I'll be watching the $.

Gold is doing well - but I don't invest in that. I can see countries buying gold as they get mad at the USA and what it is doing to the dollar. The dollar will fall. I do have money to invest in the Australian and Canadian $ - good because of interest rates and natural resources. If the euro and pound really get killed I might risk some money there.
I wonder if the euro will survive. I also wonder how a country get out of the euro and go back to their own currency.

[FIREdreamer]

Quote:

Originally Posted by dex I wonder if the euro will survive. I also wonder how a country get out of the euro and go back to their own currency.

Have you changed your mind since last October?
ECB's Nowotny Sees Global `Tri-Polar' Currency System Evolving

I suspect that it would be rather difficult diplomatically, logistically and economically for a country to get out of the Euro. But cracks are starting to show and nationalism is bound to resurface in times of crisis. So it's not surprising to hear talks about reversion to national currencies, especially at a time when national governments start feeling pressure from the streets. National currencies still exist on paper (they are currently pegged to the Euro), so reversion seems possible, at least in theory. I think that some countries are more susceptible than others to call it quits, but I also believe that the core of the Eurozone still looks solid.

To the OP,
Yes I am relatively bullish, at least compared to most TV pundits. I haven't sold anything yet, and actually I am buying more equities all the time. I am also fully rebalanced. So, dumbsh*t +1 here. But I have been lowering my cost basis considerably in the past 3 months and that should give me a better base to build juicier long term returns. At least that's the plan.

[dex]

Quote:

Originally Posted by FIREdreamer Have you changed your mind since last October? ECB's Nowotny Sees Global `Tri-Polar' Currency System Evolving I suspect that it would be rather difficult diplomatically, logistically and economically for a country to get out of the Euro. But cracks are starting to show and nationalism is bound to resurface in times of crisis. So it's not surprising to hear talks about reversion to national currencies, especially at a time when national governments start feeling pressure from the streets. National currencies still exist on paper (they are currently pegged to the Euro), so reversion seems possible, at least in theory. I think that some countries are more susceptible than others to call it quits, but I also believe that the core of the Eurozone still looks solid.

October '08 seems like ages ago.

Re: Emerging Markets stocks - That is the largest stock investment I have to make. I'm guessing the buying time frame will be similar to the dollar peak.

Re: FX I think what changed is the weighting of the currencies I will put my money. I also guessing that the Euro zone has not addressed economic problems as aggressively as they should.

I'm liking the A$ & C$ better now because they have natural resources (including gold) that can be sold when the economy pick up and they are willing to raise interest rates quickly when they see signs of inflation. I don't think the USA or Euro will raise rates quickly or high enough when needed. They wouldn't want to cut the recovery short.
So my preference allocation for currencies would look something like:
1. A$ 40%
2. C$ 40%
either 1 or both
3. £ 10%
4. € 10%