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Any PIA Benefit Assumptions - Which to Use?
Old 01-30-2014, 09:35 AM   #1
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Any PIA Benefit Assumptions - Which to Use?

Hi All-

57 years old here, looking to retire around 60. DW 1 year younger, will retire when I do.

Planning for me to file and suspend at my full retirement age, then taking my SS at 70. Planning for her to take her spousal benefit at her full retirement age, then she'll take her own benefit when she turns 70.

I'm using Any PIA to get an estimate of the likely benefits. It has 4 possible assumptions about benefits:
  • Trustees report I
  • Trustees report II
  • Trustees report III
  • No increase beyond 2013 estimate.
Does anyone understand what all these mean? Which do you think is the most conservative? And which do you think is most realistic?

Right now I'm using the "no increase" option....

Thanks!
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Old 01-30-2014, 11:05 AM   #2
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Hi Thinkin,

Quoting from the SSA Chief Actuary, "For this report, the Office of the Chief Actuary (OCACT), on behalf of the Board of Trustees, projects future cost and income based on three separate sets of long-range (75-year) assumptions for key economic variables. The intermediate (alternative II) set of assumptions represents the Trustees’ best estimate for future experience, while the low cost (alternative I) and high cost (alternative III) sets of assumptions represent more and less favorable scenarios, respectively, from the perspective of program cost."
http://www.ssa.gov/oact/tr/2012/2012...ssumptions.pdf
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Average Wage Increase Assumptions?
Old 01-30-2014, 01:22 PM   #3
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Average Wage Increase Assumptions?

Hi Racy-

Thank you. There's also a set of choices about average wage increases. Do you think the same logic applies there as well?

Thanks,

Thinkin
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Old 01-30-2014, 02:10 PM   #4
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I use the Alternative II assumption for average wage increases.
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Old 01-30-2014, 04:03 PM   #5
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Hi Brett_Cameron, or whatever your name is .

I used Assumption II in both cases and the stated benefit came out a lot higher than what the SSA shows as a projected benefit. Have you had that same experience?

Maybe we need a new thread about this....
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Old 01-30-2014, 04:20 PM   #6
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Originally Posted by ImThinkin2019 View Post
Hi Brett_Cameron, or whatever your name is .

I used Assumption II in both cases and the stated benefit came out a lot higher than what the SSA shows as a projected benefit. Have you had that same experience?

Maybe we need a new thread about this....
Not really ( pretty close as a matter of fact) but I am 58 and closer to PIA calculation age. I am not sure what the SSA projection is based on.
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Old 01-30-2014, 04:48 PM   #7
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Thanks Brett. I'll use the lower of the two for now, and as I get closer, I'll rerun the calcs. If there's still a big discrepancy I'll start a new thread and maybe someone can add some relevant info.
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Old 01-30-2014, 07:10 PM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ImThinkin2019 View Post
... There's also a set of choices about average wage increases. Do you think the same logic applies there as well?...
Looks like it. Quoting from the report: "Thus, for the 2012 Trustees Report, the Trustees set the average real wage differential, over the 65-year period from 2021 to 2086, to 1.8 percent (3.6 less 1.8), 1.2 percent (4.0 less 2.8), and 0.6 percent (4.4 less 3.8) for alternatives I, II, and III, respectively."

As the wise man said, "No one knows nothin'" ... so, they model various scenarios. Pick one!
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