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Re: Anyone else having panic attacks about the market?
Old 03-13-2007, 10:00 PM   #21
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Re: Anyone else having panic attacks about the market?

Quote:
Originally Posted by citril
Anyone who has concerns about the small amount of volatility we have had the last couple of weeks needs to read about Black Monday from 1987 and internalize what it would mean to them and their portfolio if when it happens again. Then review your asset allocation and make sure you can sleep at night.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Monday_(1987)
This is not quite like asking a young recruit to imagine combat; but then most of these guys are tougher than we are. When/if a person experiences a large drawdown, with no job, no pension and no more cash inflows expected, then that person will know where he stands vis a vis market risk. :P

Ha
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Re: Anyone else having panic attacks about the market?
Old 03-13-2007, 10:01 PM   #22
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Re: Anyone else having panic attacks about the market?

Quote:
Originally Posted by citril
Anyone who has concerns about the small amount of volatility we have had the last couple of weeks needs to read about Black Monday from 1987 and internalize what it would mean to them and their portfolio if when it happens again. Then review your asset allocation and make sure you can sleep at night.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Monday_(1987)
I was a copilot flying the airline that day, young enough that the market crash didn't bother me. But my captain was much older and also facing a divorce, he kept the AM ADF radio in his ear all day long. You could say that I flew solo all day long.
At the end of the day, he pulled all of his (remaining) money out of the market, so he missed the big zoom that came later. Taught me a valuable lesson about taking the long term view.
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Re: Anyone else having panic attacks about the market?
Old 03-13-2007, 10:01 PM   #23
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Re: Anyone else having panic attacks about the market?

When stocks go up, you make money. When they go down, it's a buying opportunity. You can't lose!

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Re: Anyone else having panic attacks about the market?
Old 03-13-2007, 10:03 PM   #24
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Re: Anyone else having panic attacks about the market?

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Originally Posted by wab
Because we can never tell when the sale is over? Or is because we own the stuff that is on sale?
Stop it Mr. Wab; this is incorrect thought.

Ha
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Re: Anyone else having panic attacks about the market?
Old 03-13-2007, 10:50 PM   #25
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Re: Anyone else having panic attacks about the market?

Quote:
Originally Posted by newyorklady
global meltdown. i am screwed.
A couple weeks ago our ER portfolio (>90% equities) was down 4.4% from its all-time high.

Today, even after a 240-point drop in the DOW, it's only down 2.9%.

If the DOW drops below 12,000 maybe we'll be ready to trade in some cap gains on Tweedy, Browne for more of the DOW dividend ETF. But maybe there'll be more opportunities to do that this summer. And you know that the worse things get, the better a bargain Berkshire Hathaway will become.

FirstFed Financial broke $69/share a couple weeks ago and I managed to short just over $68. It closed at $52.04 today but I bet things will get even worse better this week. There are a few thousand other overvalued equities out there (Abercrombie & Fitch!) so maybe this is a good time to go short...
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Re: Anyone else having panic attacks about the market?
Old 03-13-2007, 10:57 PM   #26
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Re: Anyone else having panic attacks about the market?

Quote:
Originally Posted by HaHa
Stop it Mr. Wab; this is incorrect thought.
The thought police are always harassing me.

Here's another thought. People often say "you don't lose money unless you sell." Well, the same applies to your winnings, of course -- you don't get to keep them unless you sell.

So, here's a mental trick that might help you deal with volatility. Keep a spreadsheet that tracks your net worth, but always track just your cost basis and any distributions. Never track capital gains or losses until you realize them.

You'll never get elated by false winnings (hey, I made 20% last year!). You'll never be bothered by false losses. And you'll probably be pleasantly surprised once your sell something and track your realized gains. I usually just use this trick with assets that are difficult to mark to market (like real estate), but I'm considering it for all assets.... BTW, this trick also makes you appreciate dividends a lot.
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Re: Anyone else having panic attacks about the market?
Old 03-13-2007, 11:01 PM   #27
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Re: Anyone else having panic attacks about the market?

Quote:
Originally Posted by newyorklady
I am seriously freaked out, please tell me I am just being crazy.
Where were you in 2000-2002? This is peanuts compared to that slow dreadful grind. But look at how things recovered 2003-2006!

What about May-June 2006? Did that freak you out? That was worse than this so far.

It's pretty typical to have another leg or so down after a selloff like two weeks ago, so I have been expecting this. I tend to see it as an opportunity to rebalance, but S&P really needs to sell off more before I rebalance.

What exactly are you afraid of?

Audrey
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Re: Anyone else having panic attacks about the market?
Old 03-13-2007, 11:06 PM   #28
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Re: Anyone else having panic attacks about the market?

Quote:
Originally Posted by audreyh1
What exactly are you afraid of?
Japan 1990?
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Re: Anyone else having panic attacks about the market?
Old 03-13-2007, 11:15 PM   #29
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Re: Anyone else having panic attacks about the market?

Quote:
Originally Posted by wab
Japan 1990?
Just looked, Japan down over 500 points. Gulp! Should be fun tomorrow, break out some dry powder.
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Re: Anyone else having panic attacks about the market?
Old 03-13-2007, 11:18 PM   #30
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Re: Anyone else having panic attacks about the market?

Quote:
Originally Posted by wab
Japan 1990?
"Stop it Mr. Wab; this is incorrect thought."

ħħħħThis was even worse, not even a buying opportunity
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Re: Anyone else having panic attacks about the market?
Old 03-13-2007, 11:23 PM   #31
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Re: Anyone else having panic attacks about the market?

As a retiree 100% in equities, I am not in the least concerned, and another 2000
pts would not change this. Over the past few weeks several of my stocks have
had earnings estimates creep up another cent, and KO raised its dividend again.

Now if KO or JNJ or KIM etc skipped an expected dividend increase, or started
dropping earnings estimates significantly I would get concerned, but price bumps
mean nothing.
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Re: Anyone else having panic attacks about the market?
Old 03-13-2007, 11:39 PM   #32
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Re: Anyone else having panic attacks about the market?

I agree with other posters tonight that with Japan down nearly 3%, tomorrow will be an interesting day on the New York Stock Exchange. I take solace in having a 50% bond, 50% stock portfolio. I feel comfortable that I can weather the expected and inevitable bear market.
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Re: Anyone else having panic attacks about the market?
Old 03-13-2007, 11:47 PM   #33
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Re: Anyone else having panic attacks about the market?

I'm having a mild panic attack that it wont go down more before I sell my old house and reinvest the money.

I still think we'll see the S&P a lot closer to 1000 than it is right now before things pick back up.

1080-1090 is my guess.
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Re: Anyone else having panic attacks about the market?
Old 03-13-2007, 11:49 PM   #34
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Re: Anyone else having panic attacks about the market?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cute Fuzzy Bunny
1080-1090 is my guess.
Pretty tight range. Care to share the math?
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Re: Anyone else having panic attacks about the market?
Old 03-14-2007, 12:16 AM   #35
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Re: Anyone else having panic attacks about the market?

Quote:
Originally Posted by newyorklady
global meltdown. i am screwed.
Things are probably not as bad as you think. Even Japan 1990 would have been survivable for a diversified portfolio. I bet if you look at the numbers head-on, it is not as bad as you fear. And if it is, then this is your chance to take corrective action, before things get really bad.

What is your asset allocation, and if you are retired, what is your withdrawal rate?
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Re: Anyone else having panic attacks about the market?
Old 03-14-2007, 12:19 AM   #36
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Re: Anyone else having panic attacks about the market?

NYL, not being flippant here but this is where the Financial Advisor you are paying good money should be earning his pay. Ask him to buy a cup of coffee, hold your hands and look into your eyes and repeat: it's ok. everything will be fine. really that is his job. You will be fine - trust me - the random guy on the internet. That was free btw, next time I say it I might charge you :-)

-h
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Re: Anyone else having panic attacks about the market?
Old 03-14-2007, 12:35 AM   #37
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Re: Anyone else having panic attacks about the market?

I've been doing this stock market thing for awhile now. I think/hope I keep getting better at it. But, I do get nervous at times. And, for me, there's a difference between being annoyed with the market and being scared to death regarding the market. When I get really nervous/anxious/tense/scared to death-well, I could either sell or buy. That's been the time for me to buy. And, it's worked out well (so far). But, I'm not sure that this sort of current drop makes me nervous enough to make any major moves. Waiting until I really, really want to throw up--that might be the time to buy--not sell. Other than that, I just kind of stick to my fuzzy allocations and slowly as I get older, I add more bond income into the portfolio. (That last idea is one other thing I learned on this board).
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Re: Anyone else having panic attacks about the market?
Old 03-14-2007, 12:45 AM   #38
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Re: Anyone else having panic attacks about the market?

Since I'm sitting on a bunch of cash, I actually like this. Bought some stuff a week or 2 ago after the 1st dip but want to average in. But, I'm thing of ERing this year and I don't think I'll give notice for a month or so. Enjoy the ride.
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Re: Anyone else having panic attacks about the market?
Old 03-14-2007, 01:01 AM   #39
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Re: Anyone else having panic attacks about the market?

Big tax return = putting $4,000 into the market in the next few weeks. The only problem is the IRA needs to be funded by April 15 and the bleeding might not be done by then! I know, $4k is nothing for some of you big fish, but it's almost 4% of my portfolio!
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Re: Anyone else having panic attacks about the market?
Old 03-14-2007, 01:05 AM   #40
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Re: Anyone else having panic attacks about the market?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Laurence
the bleeding might not be done by then! I know, $4k is nothing for some of you big fish, but it's almost 4% of my portfolio!
laurence you are buying stuff on sale - get the money into the mkt asap! Also look under the couch and throw the change in too
repeat it - You are buying on Sale and you have a long time to go before you touch the money.

-h
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