Anyone else hoping for a market plunge?

[Beer-man]

There are ways of reducing return sequence risk without the need to take the cream off the top.

Yes but coming off a decline is a natural one that doesn’t cost money. All other synthetic means of reducing sequence risk come with either a cost or opportunity cost.

 

[COcheesehead]

Yes but coming off a decline is a natural one that doesn’t cost money. All other synthetic means of reducing sequence risk come with either a cost or opportunity cost.

Thread drift....

So by having a cost to avoid a cost isn't that like a double negative so in reality you have a gain?

I now return you to your original thread.

 

[audreyh1]

Ok, this will be sacrilege to some, but I find myself daydreaming about a stock market plunge. The reason is that it's inevitable that it will occur at some point, there are a lot of indicators saying it should be relatively soon, and the sooner we get there, the sooner there will be buying opportunities and also the sooner we can start recovering from it and moving toward higher highs. As they say, "The waiting is the hardest part."

Anyone else share my daydream?

Personally, I think it might still take a couple of years, which I don’t consider “soon”. So I just rebalance each Jan.

We’ve already been through two really horrible bear markets since I retired, so I’m hoping the next one will be a kinder, gentler bear market.

 

[audreyh1]

The only thing a plunge will do for me would be to enable a greater percentage of my IRA to be converted to a Roth

Yep.

 

[Beer-man]

Thread drift....



So by having a cost to avoid a cost isn't that like a double negative so in reality you have a gain?



I now return you to your original thread.

Your apology is accepted

 

[jimbee]

Because I want to be able to sell into the next rally or I want to move from a outperforming sector into a underperforming sector or just want to arbitrage.

Sounds like unnecessary complication to me. Have a ball.

 

[DEC-1982]

Ok, this will be sacrilege to some, but I find myself daydreaming about a stock market plunge. The reason is that it's inevitable that it will occur at some point, there are a lot of indicators saying it should be relatively soon, and the sooner we get there, the sooner there will be buying opportunities and also the sooner we can start recovering from it and moving toward higher highs. As they say, "The waiting is the hardest part."

Anyone else share my daydream?

>>> Share your daydream?

NO

>>> Market plunge relatively soon

I don't know what indicators you refer to, but most experts who forecast the financial future are proven to be wrong. OTOH, if you are saying we will have a stock market plunge at some unknown point in time, you are right.

Some questions:
1) Are you working and still putting money in regularly?
2) Are you not fully invested in stocks/bonds etc and do you still have a lot of cash waiting on the sidelines to be invested when the market goes down?

I don't answer "yes" to either question.

 

[MarieIG]

True, but something I wouldn't hope for because many could get hurt also.

+1

 

[HadEnuff]

I'm not hoping for anything, but I am trying to be ready for anything.

That's what my AA is all about.

One thing we absolutely know about up markets, and down markets. Someone will be selling, and someone else will be buying.

 

[Jerry1]

Given that I just retired, a significant downturn would hurt a lot. That’s just the scenario I don’t want (sequence risk). I am only about 50% in equities right now so I’ve planned for such an event, but I’d prefer it doesn’t happen. I am also of the opinion that the next one won’t necessarily come back like the 2008 market did. It’s of course just my opinion, but I feel like the pressure of the national debt, the social security shortfall, our aging infrastructure and our demographics, not to mention global issues are so great, that we’re in for a big one - a cleansing if you will. I’m not a pessimist, but I am certainly worried. It would be nice to get at least five years under my retirement belt before anything really significant happens. It least by then, DW can be on Medicare and we’ll both be eligible for SS.

 

[target2019]

Ok, this will be sacrilege to some, but I find myself daydreaming about a stock market plunge. The reason is that it's inevitable that it will occur at some point, there are a lot of indicators saying it should be relatively soon, and the sooner we get there, the sooner there will be buying opportunities and also the sooner we can start recovering from it and moving toward higher highs. As they say, "The waiting is the hardest part."

Anyone else share my daydream?

Have to admit, it's a thought (hoping for stock market bear), but I don't dwell on it for long. The immediate outcome for some will be loss of job, depression, and so on. For those holding investments, recovering certainly feels great, though. We've celebrated the recent bull market, and leaving behind the pain of 07-08. My daydreaming is about other things, I suppose.

 

[jebmke]

I have no plans to buy or sell so I don't really care (for me, personally) at this point.

 

[Rianne]

Our plan for 40 yr FIRE was 300K ago. That's my story and I'm sticking to it.

 

[bingybear]

Usually there are signs that a bear is walking around. In the late 90's the tech companies were loaning utilities (cell providers) the funds to buy the equipment for the next generation of cell tech. The cell providers slowed the pipeline as they had more debt than they felt comfortable with. I'm sure there were other reasons.

Leading up to 2008 the loan standards for housing were reduced. People could buy home with little skin in the game, sometimes none. The could qualify with little income. Many got a first mortgage that was interest only with a buy down and a second that had payments start 5 or more years later. Add to this the financial institutions put bets in credit default swaps and other thinks like bundling bad loans that were not rated accordingly.

So what are we seeing happening now that will cause the bear to come and play? I don't buy that the market it hitting new highs indicates a bear. Now there were some things in 2015-2016. If everyone quit using social media... maybe... but not likely to happen in my mind. Could some sectors be extended... maybe. It is difficult to call the top AND bottom, so you have to decide if you can call it well enough then go for it. Not sure I can

 

[Ready-4-ER-at-14]

I deal with the anxiety of market roller coaster missing the bottom (in the consolation that I usually guess both the tops and the bottoms too soon) by having some money reinvesting all the time automatically and some just free cash to direct.

I have bond ladders that go out a long ways so I always have a chunk that could go into the market or back into fixed income in a discressionary manner or pull out to spend. I look at it as a release of the greed/fear build up by playing some.

Dividend reinvestment is automatic for some funds, and accumulates cash in others for directed purchases like fallen angel buys similar to little book that beats the marker picks.

I also have some "three fund accounts", where I buy the three types of indexes and let it ride with some possible rebalancing.

I had to face the fact that I am a mixture of a trader, a speculator, and a long term investor. I just try to manage the risks to a lower level.

 

[timo2]

Nope. Not at all.

 

[W2R]

Nope. Not at all.

+1

I don't have any plans to buy anytime soon, so I'd rather just watch the market spiraling upwards. If it plunges I'll be fine, but I have no reason to hope for that to happen.

 

[sengsational]

I would like it if each component (asset class) of my asset allocation would do different things at different times. A plunge could be one of those things. Why? Because that thrashing increases the rebalancing bonus. So if the OP question is a plunge in large cap us equities and the rest of the world and other asset classes are affected less substantially, then I wouldn't mind a dip. Even if it lasted a few years to recover.

 

[pb4uski]

Not hoping for a market plunge at all... but if it happened I don't think it would bother me much... I'm talking about a 20-30% drop... a 40-50% drop would probably get me thinking defensively (might even start SS).

OTOH, a big drop might give me the opportunity to test out the bucket theory and just stand pat with what equities that I have and live off cash/bonds until the equities recover.

 

[Fedup]

Hoping for a little Whee, maybe 5%, not a big Whee, not expecting a big Whee.

 

[pb4uski]

I thought that we were talking about "whoa"s and not "whee"s.

 

[W2R]

I just have one silent observation to make about the market about a week and a half ago: [-][/-]

 

[bingybear]

+1

I don't have any plans to buy anytime soon, so I'd rather just watch the market spiraling upwards. If it plunges I'll be fine, but I have no reason to hope for that to happen.

I sold some stuff and bought some others.

 

[aaronc879]

No. My preference would be for the market to climb slowly so it's never too overweight and therefore doesn't need to plummet, ever.

 

[Dtail]

I just have one silent observation to make about the market about a week and a half ago: [-][/-]

I knew it was you. We were all doing just fine.