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Old 09-13-2018, 10:17 AM   #101
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Waiting for a bear market is, in my experience, a really bad idea. I'm 100% invested.


"Buy low, sell high" is garbage. You can't actually do that. People who say they do are lucky.
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Old 09-13-2018, 10:22 AM   #102
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Originally Posted by i-like-gin View Post
Waiting for a bear market is, in my experience, a really bad idea. I'm 100% invested.


"Buy low, sell high" is garbage. You can't actually do that. People who say they do are lucky.
Except for rebalancing.
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Old 09-13-2018, 10:30 AM   #103
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Except for rebalancing.
My rebalancing strategy is mostly going to have me selling into lows (higher volatility periods), which is totally counterintuitive to most people, but it ultimately works out better.


So even when it comes to rebalancing, I don't think "buying lows" is really the way to go.
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Old 09-13-2018, 11:13 AM   #104
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My rebalancing strategy is mostly going to have me selling into lows (higher volatility periods), which is totally counterintuitive to most people, but it ultimately works out better.


So even when it comes to rebalancing, I don't think "buying lows" is really the way to go.
Its just that when you rebalance, you sell your winners at some "high" to buy your losers and some "low". So you are are selling high to buy low. It doesn't mean that you are hitting some specific peak or trough or coincide with a particular market high or low.
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Old 09-13-2018, 11:15 AM   #105
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Its just that when you rebalance, you sell your winners at some "high" to buy your losers and some "low". So you are are selling high to buy low. It doesn't mean that you are hitting some specific peak or trough or coincide with a particular market high or low.
I see what you mean. If you're committed to a 50/50 cash/bond or something like that, then a rebalance means taking cash away from the winner at intervals.


Yup!
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Old 09-13-2018, 11:18 AM   #106
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Why do people always insist on saying "they're hoping for a market drop?"

You do realize if you buy now...and the market doubles in 5 years...you're ahead. The market doesnt have to drop to come out ahead.

Stop with the mindset of hoping the market drops so you can get some sort of deal. Its such a narrow minded way of thinking.
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Old 09-13-2018, 11:27 AM   #107
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But wouldn't you still have the subsequent gains in the index funds become a capital gain tax issue later? So in effect you are just delaying the payment of taxes.
This sounds like tax loss harvesting, pushing off taxes to the future. I TLH when I can but I have to confess I am skeptical of whether it is really a good thing or not. I suppose if I die before all those taxes are due, I come out ahead.
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Old 09-13-2018, 11:37 AM   #108
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Stop with the mindset of hoping the market drops so you can get some sort of deal. Its such a narrow minded way of thinking.
Some of us feel it's inevitable, so just wanted to get past it.
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Old 09-13-2018, 04:24 PM   #109
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Why do people always insist on saying "they're hoping for a market drop?"

You do realize if you buy now...and the market doubles in 5 years...you're ahead. The market doesnt have to drop to come out ahead.

Stop with the mindset of hoping the market drops so you can get some sort of deal. Its such a narrow minded way of thinking.
I find "hoping" for something does not work, unless you click your heels three times!
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Old 09-13-2018, 05:39 PM   #110
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I'm not hoping for a plunge but I do feel some sort of significant market decline will occur sooner rather than later.
It's absolutely bound to be sooner than later given later happens after sooner.
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Old 09-13-2018, 05:42 PM   #111
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If you want a plunge before November, seems you're asking for a particular elections outcome.
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Old 09-13-2018, 06:28 PM   #112
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If you want a plunge before November, seems you're asking for a particular elections outcome.
not just major uncertainty ( in the elections )

to say , a dominance of the more radical ( independent minded ) arms of the major political parties , or just more non-aligned candidates with a strong chance of success

in Australia the current ruling party has a very slender majority ( and sometimes has to work with independents to get policies past )
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Old 09-13-2018, 06:34 PM   #113
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Why do people always insist on saying "they're hoping for a market drop?"

You do realize if you buy now...and the market doubles in 5 years...you're ahead. The market doesnt have to drop to come out ahead.

Stop with the mindset of hoping the market drops so you can get some sort of deal. Its such a narrow minded way of thinking.
in my case i may not be able to control my affairs in 5 years time , and i suggest some older members might have a similar risk .

( trusting a manager to make timely decisions is an additional risk many don't need )

and yes i have a narrow mindset in this regard , but it is also prudent (imo )
being wrong about thing has less downside for me than being correct but not prepared for it .

cheers !!
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Old 09-13-2018, 06:47 PM   #114
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Waiting for a bear market is, in my experience, a really bad idea. I'm 100% invested.


"Buy low, sell high" is garbage. You can't actually do that. People who say they do are lucky.
my nickname was 'lucky ' many decades before thinking of investing for my future .. and is often 'LUCKY B@STARD !!! ' to several close fiends .

and yes i am mostly invested in the market but conversely waiting for a bear market , with some 'inverse index ' plays in my holdings as insurance and a 'liquidity buffer ' assuming banks will restrict cash outflows in the very stressed times .

buy low / sell high is a mix of relativity and patience ( and panic resistance ) more of an art than a science ( imo)


please note this is ALWAYS risk in investing , otherwise there would be no gains offered to induce you to participate ( the often ignored risk is underlying inflation )
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Old 09-18-2018, 05:50 PM   #115
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I do, but it's because I'm 56 and on the cusp of retiring. I have enough to retire today, assuming the market doesn't plunge withing the next few years. The problem is, nothing can guarantee that. As such, if it is going to plunge, I far prefer it do so before I retire rather than right after when I'm trying to live off my stash.

That said, if I was in my 30s like you, I wouldn't be in any hurry. There will be plenty of buying opportunities. Just keep your powder dry, set an allocation, and when it gets out of balance, rebalance.
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Old 09-18-2018, 06:08 PM   #116
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i am hoping to obtain Financial Independence , since i have been retired earlier than planned , and having that crash sooner rather than later , would give me some insight of how my plan is actually going to work under stress .
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Old 09-18-2018, 07:31 PM   #117
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Ok, this will be sacrilege to some, but I find myself daydreaming about a stock market plunge. The reason is that it's inevitable that it will occur at some point, there are a lot of indicators saying it should be relatively soon, and the sooner we get there, the sooner there will be buying opportunities and also the sooner we can start recovering from it and moving toward higher highs. As they say, "The waiting is the hardest part."

Anyone else share my daydream?
I went to 75% cash and commodities last week.
I am BANKING on it
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Old 09-18-2018, 07:39 PM   #118
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i can't afford to wait , but i do need to stress-test my efforts so far ( just in case i need a major re-think )

i expect a nightmare , but one at least i will have some plans to try out during it .
for example i am low on the Large Caps , and heavier on the small and mid-caps , so will be looking for blue chips as a major focus either directly or via LICs and ETFs
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Old 09-18-2018, 08:17 PM   #119
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You don't need an actual market plunge to work off any present excess valuation. A prolonged sideways market coupled with a continuation of positive earnings will make multiples drop back to a more historically normal range. For someone already fully invested, that would certainly be the preferred outcome.
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Old 09-18-2018, 09:14 PM   #120
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Yes, I am unfortunately sitting on way too much cash right now.
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