Anyone Got a Clue on Oil?

[Nords]

Gotta wonder why they don't do hybrid diesels...

I doubt a hybrid diesel would save enough on fuel costs to pay for the battery replacements. Once you get above 40 mpg the diminishing returns start to take over.

 

[brewer12345]

I doubt a hybrid diesel would save enough on fuel costs to pay for the battery replacements.  Once you get above 40 mpg the diminishing returns start to take over.

Yeah, you're probably right. What about a so-called "mild hybrid"? As I understand it, they basically just have big alternators, special software and mybe some minor extra betteries to provide like a 10 to 15% fuel economy boost with less cost and complication.

 

[tozz]

For what it's worth, my Prius has a 10 year/150,000 mile battery warranty.  (Count me as another one waiting for a diesel hybrid.) 

I doubt a hybrid diesel would save enough on fuel costs to pay for the battery replacements.

 

[Nords]

What about a so-called "mild hybrid"?

Speaking from a career of keeping complicated nuclear/electrical/microprocessor/hydraulic/pneumatic systems in working condition only by dint of much additional manual labor-- it's all marketing gimmicks.

Payoff (years) = (Prius price - used car price)/(gas price in $ per gallon) * (Prius mpg-used car mpg)/(miles driven per year). I'm assuming a new Prius (fresh from the dealer's lot) costs $22K and I'm hoping someone has better price data.

I did the math for a Toyota Prius against our 1994 Taurus station wagon ($8100, 22 mpg) and our 1990 Honda Civic ($6795, 35 mpg but since gone to its great reward). Oahu gas is about $2.45/gallon. Even at 15K miles/year the numbers are six years to a decade payback, let alone our actual driving records of 3K miles/year. The above formula also doesn't account for Prius' extra insurance & maintenance expenses (plus computer issues).

Maybe the math will improve when used Priuses (Priuii?) are less than $10K and gas is over $3/gallon. Anyone want to plot the formula on a multi-axis graph and find its sweet spots?

Buy hybrids for the "cool" factor, but don't buy 'em for the gas savings.

 

[brewer12345]

Speaking from a career of keeping complicated nuclear/electrical/microprocessor/hydraulic/pneumatic systems in working condition only by dint of much additional manual labor-- it's all marketing gimmicks.

Payoff (years) = (Prius price - used car price)/(gas price in $ per gallon) * (Prius mpg-used car mpg)/(miles driven per year).  I'm assuming a new Prius (fresh from the dealer's lot) costs $22K and I'm hoping someone has better price data.

I did the math for a Toyota Prius against our 1994 Taurus station wagon ($8100, 22 mpg) and our 1990 Honda Civic ($6795, 35 mpg but since gone to its great reward).  Oahu gas is about $2.45/gallon.  Even at 15K miles/year the numbers are six years to a decade payback, let alone our actual driving records of 3K miles/year.  The above formula also doesn't account for Prius' extra insurance & maintenance expenses (plus computer issues). 

Maybe the math will improve when used Priuses (Priuii?) are less than $10K and gas is over $3/gallon.  Anyone want to plot the formula on a multi-axis graph and find its sweet spots?

Buy hybrids for the "cool" factor, but don't buy 'em for the gas savings. 

Oh, I don't plan on buying *any* car for at least 5 years. If hybrids have proven reliable, etc. by then, I might consider one at that point.

I suspect that my payback would be a lot quicker, since I drive a lot with my new gig (30 to 35k miles a year). In any case, I usually look at things on a NPV basis, since payback period is a less than perfect measure of whether it makes sense to do something.

 

[tozz]

Personally, I just think it is a cool piece of technology.  I don't dispute your math, but obviously that changes for every uptick in oil prices.  Toyota actually dialed down the fuel mileage 15% to achieve emission goals.   As for reliability, the Prii have been on the road since 1996 with no maintenance issues (aside from the previous generation of tires).  Dunno how many more years it's going to take to convince the legions of reliability sceptics.   

Buy hybrids for the "cool" factor, but don't buy 'em for the gas savings. 

 

[Nords]

I suspect that my payback would be a lot quicker, since I drive a lot with my new gig (30 to 35k miles a year).

Yikes-- have the COMPANY buy you a Prius.

 

[dougdo]

Given the price of oil, I'm very surprised that methanol-gas blends and biodiesel-diesel blends haven't taken off. In both cases, you can mix 10-20% of methanol into gas or biodiesel (from french fry grease) into regular gas or diesel and use them with no modifications to your truck and car and also reduce tailpipe emmissions.

As for oil and gas stocks, I'm long on them. The supply is limited, the developing world (especially China and India) are growing rapidly, what else can happen but go up? At least in the long term.

 

[brewer12345]

Heh. Check out methanol prices. MEOH has done verrrry well for a reason. Methanol is also mostly made from natural gas, which has greatly risen in price along with oil, gasoline, etc.