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Old 12-31-2009, 09:03 PM   #21
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My guess, Wilshire 5000 at ~10K, Russell 3000 at ~55, S&P 500 at 850, DJI at 8500. How's that for WAG's?
Very depressing WAGs! Please don't make me live through 2008 and 2009 all over again! What are you aiming for - third time's a charm?

Audrey
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Old 12-31-2009, 09:52 PM   #22
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Global warming will be solved
Markets will recover + 10% across the world
Whales will be saved
Japanese will acquire a taste for whalerumi
Miss America contest will be banned, as will all reality shows
Income taxes will be abolished
Everyone with a mortgage will have it paid off by the government
Wars will end, people will all drink coke and gather in groups to sing
Everyone will be able to FIRE if they want to and work at meaningful occupations for the rest of their lives if they do not want to FIRE ...
Of course, unemployment will go to zero
Sarah Palin will be elected president, but will decline to work soup kitchens in Harlem

... April fools .... huh? oh January 1st? not ... never mind

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Old 12-31-2009, 10:13 PM   #23
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Ah, just wistful thinking on Harley's part. In an earlier post, he said to have some cash to deploy, but missed the market low earlier this year. Sorry, Harley, but you have to run after the train if you want to get onboard.
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Old 01-01-2010, 05:32 AM   #24
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Yes, housing has clearly bottomed and is on the gradual rise.
Yes, a million is the new two million:

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Old 01-01-2010, 08:41 AM   #25
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I don't do anything with my guesses. I treat them all as wild-ass guesses.

If after distributions, taxes and withdrawals my portfolio is out of balance by around 10%, I rebalance.

Audrey
Here is a historical perspective of current bull run with past ones:
Historical Bull Market Returns, Duration Suggest More Upside for Current Rally - Beacon Asset Managers -- Seeking Alpha
TJ
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Old 01-01-2010, 11:13 AM   #26
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Very depressing WAGs! Please don't make me live through 2008 and 2009 all over again! What are you aiming for - third time's a charm?

Audrey
Not a huge drop on any of the indexes, just a little pullback from some unrealistically (IMHO) overheated markets.

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Ah, just wistful thinking on Harley's part. In an earlier post, he said to have some cash to deploy, but missed the market low earlier this year. Sorry, Harley, but you have to run after the train if you want to get onboard.
Busted!
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Old 01-01-2010, 11:24 AM   #27
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Yes, housing has clearly bottomed and is on the gradual rise.

It must be! I'm now building a house! And I sold my previous house in 2005!

Audrey
You, you, dirty (housing) market timer you!











Just joking of course.

When you feel something is under/over valued and act according to your belief, is that not CMT ("Clean Market Timing")?

Of course, they call you wrong and dumb when you lose money.

And if you are right and make money, they call you lucky.
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Let us talk about individual Favorite stocks for 2010
Old 01-01-2010, 11:33 AM   #28
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Let us talk about individual Favorite stocks for 2010

Let us talk about individual Favorite stocks for 2010. Any that will be up 20% or more?
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Old 01-01-2010, 12:08 PM   #29
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Umm... That would have to go in the forum of Stock Picking or whatever it is called. If the economic condition improves, there would be so many that would go up 20%. But since I do not know which would, I buy a basket of them. That's all I personally would tell anyone on stock picking.
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Old 01-01-2010, 12:47 PM   #30
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How about some perspective on dealing with potential externalities events, like Dems passing significant tax increases, Israel bombing Iran, Cap & Trade rules drives major wealth reallocation, or add one of your own.
Personally, the spookiest one is the Iran/Israel event. A bit disconterting that Israel recalled all their ambassadors for "consultations". First time in Israel's history that they have ever done this. Some Mid-east followers feel that Iran is much closer than we think and do not believe Israel will give Iran a chance to finish once Israel is convinced Iran has it. If this happened, would you change your portfolio allocations and how fast?
Nwsteve
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Old 01-01-2010, 12:51 PM   #31
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Dow = 12476...will reach 13000 but drop back.
I like this prediction. After checking with my crystal ball, I decided that I would be more optimistic than teejayevans and go for Dow = 12477.
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My predictions for 2010
Old 01-01-2010, 03:34 PM   #32
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My predictions for 2010

CPI will stay flat but my cost of living will increase.

The tax code will be simplified but require more publications, instructions and forms. Some people will pay less tax but my taxes and rates will rise.

Republicans and democrats will find new ways to frame common problems as partisan issues and then insist that the only solutions are partisan in nature.

The media will discover new reasons we should all be afraid and new crises we need to hear about 24 hours a day.

An asset class will suffer a sharp drop in price. When it hits bottom financial analysts and media will then recommend investors reduce their holdings. After the price recovers, the same analysts will recommend investors increase their allocation.

The number of people working part time and full time will each increase faster than overall population growth.

Corporate profits will continue to increase steadily.

Increasing profits will enable corporate execs to be paid record amounts of money and shareholders will discover that millions of options were granted in march 2009.

Goldman Sachs will make even more money and pay most of it to themselves.

New theories about investing will consume the passion of many, but strict rebalancing will prove to be the best strategy to long term investing.
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Old 01-01-2010, 05:05 PM   #33
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Personally, the spookiest one is the Iran/Israel event. A bit disconterting that Israel recalled all their ambassadors for "consultations". First time in Israel's history that they have ever done this. Some Mid-east followers feel that Iran is much closer than we think and do not believe Israel will give Iran a chance to finish once Israel is convinced Iran has it. If this happened, would you change your portfolio allocations and how fast?
Nwsteve
Buy CCJ, DEN.TO, WMC and a host of other uranium producers?
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Old 01-01-2010, 05:11 PM   #34
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You, you, dirty (housing) market timer you!
It just so happened that when we were ready to get rid of the house in favor of full-time RVing, it was at the market peak. I still chuckle occasionally at the RVing folks going full-time that we were absolutely insane if not downright fiscally irresponsible to sell our houses in 2005!

And it just so happens that now we have found a place where we want to build.

Considering that both houses are in TX where the housing market never did experience the recent boom and bust, I didn't make out nearly as well as it sounds.

Makes a good story though!

Audrey
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Old 01-01-2010, 07:40 PM   #35
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I just put in my annual S&P 500 guess @ Bogleheads. This year I'm pretty sure that there will be a 5% increase (same as the last few years).
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Old 01-02-2010, 08:24 AM   #36
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Did nobody hear about housing bottoming out again over the summer when notes are due and folks can't pay for them? Hard to believe we have hit bottom already for keeps in real estate.
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Old 01-02-2010, 08:36 AM   #37
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I don't find it hard to believe we have hit bottom for keeps (at least for a few years) in real estate. Unemployment has been high for a while forcing foreclosures, but is starting to improve. Inventory has been cut drastically as almost no new homes are being built and that has been true for a while. The economy has been coming out of recession for a while.

The indices following house have been showing stabilization and/or improvement.

I haven't heard of any specific event this summer that would cause another downturn.

Audrey
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Old 01-02-2010, 09:34 AM   #38
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Anywhere from DOW 6,000 to 13,000. I'll zero in on the final number somewhere around 12/31/10.
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Old 01-02-2010, 10:07 AM   #39
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My prediction is that the markets will be relatively flat in 2010. I would like to believe there will be a bull market, but the recent crash has spooked a lot of investors and emptied their pockets. The next bubble may be government bonds.

Disclaimer: I'm not a financial professional!
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Old 01-02-2010, 11:15 AM   #40
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Itís still too early to draw definite conclusions about housing. Case-Shiller data for december (2 month delay) is mixed with much of the recent improvement not holding.
Keep in mind that supply is restrained by homes with equity value < mortgage value that might be otherwise on the market.

I think 2010 will be the year of the great disappointments Ė optimists because things wonít be as good as they hope and pessimists because things wonít be as bad as they predict.
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