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Re: Anyone here who blew it? Retired too soon?
Old 03-15-2006, 02:37 PM   #41
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Re: Anyone here who blew it? Retired too soon?

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Originally Posted by HFWR
There are undoubtedly localized residential re bubbles around, but I don't see a commercial/industrial bubble anywhere, so REITS don't seem terribly overvalued to me...
Sorry - I'm not trying to claim there is a bubble in REITs in spite of the common market pundit insistence that there is (or that REITs will be killed by rising interest rates).* I was trying to make a point about the dangers of trying to market time these sorts of things and being way too early......

BTW - when I first started investing in REIT funds they had come off of a very nasty correction of 20% or more.* Few investors would touch them for a couple of years after that - but that turned out to be an excellent time to buy.

I get such a kick out of it when conventional wisdom is proved to be wrong - which it usually is! Contrarian at heart!

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Re: Anyone here who blew it? Retired too soon?
Old 03-15-2006, 03:00 PM   #42
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Re: Anyone here who blew it? Retired too soon?

Well, I've been in a while, too, and my cost basis is lower, plus my allocation isn't out o' whack, so I think I'll stay put for now. I could be wrong... :
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Re: Anyone here who blew it? Retired too soon?
Old 03-15-2006, 03:03 PM   #43
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Re: Anyone here who blew it? Retired too soon?

HFWR, I agree with you, but travelling around Florida, the one area we stayed in with homes in the $400,000 +++++ Range, I bet every third house had a For Sale sign on it(Hernando County)

Lots of listings , very few sales, it is a Buyers Market.

Couple of Hurricanes, prices should drop at least 20%.

Flood Insurance, Hurricane Insurance, Sink Hole Insurance, Termite insurance, etc etc etc.
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Re: Anyone here who blew it? Retired too soon?
Old 03-15-2006, 03:28 PM   #44
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Re: Anyone here who blew it? Retired too soon?

Take this as you want but IMHO the yields on REITs indices are historically low. I don't believe the P/E is an accurate measure of value when it comes to REITs since dividends account for a lot of the return. I am not saying the "b" word but I see it as an unattractive investment for the time being.
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Re: Anyone here who blew it? Retired too soon?
Old 03-15-2006, 03:51 PM   #45
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Re: Anyone here who blew it? Retired too soon?

I'm not putting any new money in...

My slice/dice approach is to occasionally rebalance if and when the percentages get out of whack. I have those same thoughts, just not sure when/if to pull the trigger. When to get out, when to get in...
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Re: Anyone here who blew it? Retired too soon?
Old 03-15-2006, 04:13 PM   #46
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Re: Anyone here who blew it? Retired too soon?

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Originally Posted by Cute 'n Fuzzy Bunny
I think there are two kinds of "market timers".* The ones who mistakenly believe they can establish a high and low water mark on a stock or an asset class with the intent to get in and out of it and profit by "buy low, sell high", and the ones who look at a hideously overpriced market and get the hell out or see a hideously underpriced market (probably caused by some disaster or major event), take two courage pills and buy.

For the latter, no calculator or spreadsheet or ratios are required.* Its usually something pretty obvious, like stocks with no earnings and no business plan that are worth more than general motors, or after someone flies a plane into a building.
Just because it's my nature, I'll play devil's advocate on the latter approach. In order to successfully time the market, you have to be successful on both your entrances and exits. It might be possible to know when the market is hideously overpriced, but then if you get out you also need to get back in when the market is correctly priced. The getting back in is the harder part, and doing it falls under CFB's first kind of market timer. When getting back in you don't have the "hideous" indicator to confirm that you are doing the right thing.

And there is always the danger that when the plane hits a building that might actually be the start of something that takes the markets down over the long term. I would argue that 9/11 was in fact a significant part of what led Shrub to ramp up his spend n' borrow approach that is going to have long term negative effects on our economy; those effects just haven't been fully felt yet because the fed's low interest rates covered up the problems so far.
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Re: Anyone here who blew it? Retired too soon?
Old 03-15-2006, 06:33 PM   #47
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Re: Anyone here who blew it? Retired too soon?

Quote:
Originally Posted by HFWR
I'm not putting any new money in...

My slice/dice approach is to occasionally rebalance if and when the percentages get out of whack. I have those same thoughts, just not sure when/if to pull the trigger. When to get out, when to get in...*
HFWR - I'm doing the same as you. I have my slice. I trim it when it gets out of whack. I add when it gets hammered. It's the only way I know how to "market time".

Audrey
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Re: Anyone here who blew it? Retired too soon?
Old 03-15-2006, 08:46 PM   #48
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Re: Anyone here who blew it? Retired too soon?

My two positions are RWR (P/E 17.35) and IGR (P/E 13.85) with divs of 4.43 and 7.74 trailing. Forget the exact ERs, around 0.4 and 0.9, IIRC...

IGR has about 50% (again, IIRC...) the same holdings as RWR, i.e a lot of US, but gives me some intl exposure. Both held in tax-deferred acct., about 12% of portfolio.
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Re: Anyone here who blew it? Retired too soon?
Old 03-15-2006, 09:56 PM   #49
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Re: Anyone here who blew it? Retired too soon?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Maximillion
Couple of Hurricanes, prices should drop at least 20%.
I would think so too, but the current run up started right after 5 of them hit in series not that long ago...
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Re: Anyone here who blew it? Retired too soon?
Old 03-15-2006, 10:19 PM   #50
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Re: Anyone here who blew it? Retired too soon?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Maximillion
Lots of listings , very few sales, it is a Buyers Market. Couple of Hurricanes, prices should drop at least 20%.

Flood Insurance, Hurricane Insurance, Sink Hole Insurance, Termite insurance, etc etc etc.
I'm no chamber of commerce rep, but Florida is more complicated than you may think. Hurricanes had surprisingly little impact on housing, though the market is softening now in keeping with lots of pricey areas around the country. Sink holes are a highly localized phenomenon and other than in those areas are not a factor.

On the other hand, there is no state income tax (offsets alot of the high insurance premiums and then some). Prices for non-housing goods are average. The weather and beaches are spectacular in my opinion. The population, while not without its issues, is diverse, has a nice mix of south and midwest (on the Gulf coast) and Canadian, south, and northeast on the Atlantic coast; all areas enjoy a strong Hispanic presence as well.

Hurricanes are horrible, but even here most were not seriously affected and in a given area they last hours to a day on average, unlike months of frigid winter gridlock, or dust and brushfires, 110 in the shade, or mudslides, etc.

Bottom line: I probably would not have chosen Florida if it weren't for a great career opportunity but now that we are here, I reckon we like it about as much as anywhere we have lived - including the NE, Wisconsin, and Tucson. Maybe not everyone's cup of tea, but we're happy as clams here. One of the good places to live, worth the premium (if any) to us.
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