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Anyone investing in chicken?
Old 12-27-2003, 10:35 AM   #1
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Anyone investing in chicken?

Just wondering if anyone is thinking of ideas to profit from the Beef headlines . . . with their hobby money?

Subway? Chicken futures? Cut-Throat fishing tours inc.? . . .

"U.S. Loses Nearly 90 Percent of Beef Exports
Mad Cow Scare Drives Away Over a Dozen Countries
By EMILY GERSEMA, AP

WASHINGTON (Dec. 27) - Just days after discovering the nation's first case of mad cow disease, the United States has lost nearly all of its beef exports as more than a dozen countries stopped buying American beef as insurance against potential infection. . ."

http://aolsvc.news.aol.com/news/arti...23174809990004

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Re: Anyone investing in chicken?
Old 12-27-2003, 10:45 AM   #2
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Re: Anyone investing in chicken?

The value play is to buy beef when it gets oversold - Big Mac stocks?
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Re: Anyone investing in chicken?
Old 12-27-2003, 12:58 PM   #3
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Re: Anyone investing in chicken?

Con-agra pays a nice dividend and is fairly well diversified. Mickey-d's was beaten down but has made a comeback up until this. Cant see a lot of people getting in line for burgers for at least the near future. Plus I was unimpressed with macdonalds business and prospects PRIOR to this fiasco.

News today is the cattle may have come from canada. Since the canadian mad-cow hasnt been seen outside of a single cow, I find this hard to believe. Especially since the northeast blackout was initially blamed on the canadians and turned out to be a power company in ohio.

Could be years before this settles out if the UK and canadian situations bear out here. Makers of lunch meats, burger and anything else made from machine extracted meats like hotdogs will be effected.

I just bought a nice $39 electric meat grinder. My twice a month hamburger requirements will be nicely met by a slab of chuck roast fed into it. Plus I just picked up a nice 8lb rib roast for $3.88 a pound.

Maybe less an investment opportunity and more one to improve the quality of life at a low cost
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Re: Anyone investing in chicken?
Old 12-27-2003, 03:57 PM   #4
 
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Re: Anyone investing in chicken?

I just finished a book my wife bought me for Christmas;
'Wilderness and Plenty' by Frank Fraser Darling,
published 1970. Short book with a big message.
It will scare the hell out of you, especially in light
of the "Mad Cow" news. My opinion?
Mankind (an oxymoron??) is destroying the earth and there is no workable solution.
It will end with a bang or a whimper, but it will end.
This may be the only issue where I agree with Al Gore
and not Rush LImbaugh.

John Galt
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Re: Anyone investing in chicken?
Old 12-28-2003, 03:20 AM   #5
 
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Re: Anyone investing in chicken?

Hello cut-throat! You will surely not be surprised to
learn that I never get a flu shot., nor would I ever
use my seatbelt if not compelled to do so, and I'm
a pretty smart guy. Neither do I wonder why we get the politicians we do (a favorite theme of yours).
I have met the voters (and they is
us!) Look at it this way. In the movie
'As Good as it Gets', Jack N. (when asked why he brings plastic tableware to the restaurant) says "I've seen the
help. It's a judgement call." That's one reason why I no longer vote. The inmates are in charge of the asylum
and have been for some time.

John Galt
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Re: Anyone investing in chicken?
Old 12-28-2003, 07:28 AM   #6
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Re: Anyone investing in chicken?

Hormel is on my watch list-even before the beef thing- south of $22/shr - might - I say might part with some of my hobby money.
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Re: Anyone investing in chicken?
Old 12-28-2003, 07:35 AM   #7
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Re: Anyone investing in chicken?

Quote:
That's one reason why I no longer vote. The inmates are in charge of the asylum
and have been for some time.
Two interesting statistics for you:

- The lower the IQ, the more children you are likely to have
- The lower the IQ, the more likely you are to vote

I think you can see where this is going...
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Re: Anyone investing in chicken?
Old 12-28-2003, 11:41 AM   #8
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Re: Anyone investing in chicken?

I don't believe your statistics, TH.

Specifically, I challenge the one about voting.

One's likelihood of voting increases with age and income. At least, that is the story that I have always heard. People who remain on welfare tend not to vote.

Have fun.

John R.
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Re: Anyone investing in chicken?
Old 12-28-2003, 12:55 PM   #9
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Re: Anyone investing in chicken?

Age and income <> IQ. I'm certainly a fine representative of that

But of course, 99% of statistics are bullpuckey.

hint: I used to do studies and statistics in a marketing capacity Every study I ever did and every statistic I generated somehow said exactly what I wanted it to.

That having been said, I have seen several small studies that correlated higher voting incidence with lower IQ levels. When I get a chance I'll see if I can dig up some online references.

Did you also disagree that lower income, intelligence folks also have more children than high income, intelligence people?
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Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. Just another form of "buy low, sell high" for those who have trouble with things. This rule is not universal. Do not buy a 1973 Pinto because everyone else is afraid of it.
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Re: Anyone investing in chicken?
Old 12-29-2003, 03:51 AM   #10
 
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Re: Anyone investing in chicken?

I am not saying that I am representative of
anything (excepting maybe rampant egomania), and I agree
that a lot of what passes for statistics is "bullpuckery".
Be that as it may, I only stopped voting when I got older. Also,
I am a 25 year member of Mensa ( IQ in 99th
percentile). Thus, if older smarter people are more likely
to vote, I am surely atypical. No one who knows me would be surprised at that.

John Galt
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Re: Anyone investing in chicken?
Old 12-29-2003, 05:20 AM   #11
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Re: Anyone investing in chicken?

I'll take the voters - young,old smart, dumb,etc. - especially given the alternatives(Winston Churchill?). I haven't voted in thirty years - but I consider doing nothing a vote provided I have the right to vote.

Doing nothing has made me much more money over the years than active investing.

Reading The Warren Buffett Way over the holidays it strikes me how stupid high intelligence can be - the trick is to understand what you don't know and above all - keep it simple.

As for statistics - "Lies,dam lies and statistics" - Mark Twain. Good historical data is of course another story.

Meanwhile since I'm a slow learner - will watching chicken and beef stocks looking for bargins.
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Re: Anyone investing in chicken?
Old 12-30-2003, 03:27 PM   #12
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Re: Anyone investing in chicken?

Well, I've just about given up on trying to find a clever way to make money off of mad cow. I looked at ConAgra and Hormel. ConAgra doesn't appear to be poised to grow earnings right now and without that ability, it's hard to see how they can profit from a beef vacuum. Hormel looks more interesting but has a P/E of over 19 right now. It's probably worth watching. I looked for Subway, Blimpies and Kentucky Fried Chicken but couldn't find any listing. I assume they either are not publicly traded or are part of some larger conglomerate. Oh well . . . I guess I'll keep my money in indexes.
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Re: Anyone investing in chicken?
Old 12-30-2003, 04:22 PM   #13
 
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Re: Anyone investing in chicken?

I think KFC is a part of Pepsico.
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Re: Anyone investing in chicken?
Old 12-30-2003, 05:17 PM   #14
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Re: Anyone investing in chicken?

Subway is a privately held franchisee.

KFC is part of Tricon Global, a pepsico spinoff (which also includes taco bell and pizza hut).

Blimpie International used to trade on the nasdaq as bpme and then on the american stock exchange as blm. A year ago the stockholders voted to sell to a private investment group and it was delisted from the amex.

The fast food places were sporting pretty empty parking lots when i drove by them this afternoon.
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