Join Early Retirement Today
Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
Old 11-06-2008, 06:41 PM   #21
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 3,812
Quote:
Originally Posted by Roger Lococco View Post
Or does Prof. Shiller seem like a slightly more informed intellect.

Remember that Prof Shiller saw the current situation coming and clearly.

I attended two classes taught by Prof Shiller and he seemed very , ohhh, not humble but like, ordinary guy.

Bogle seems like a showman, and people with little time to investigate, love a show.

Just wondering if people still believe the Bogle approach. If so are you pumping money into indexes?
If you attended two courses taught by Prof Shiller, than you were a Yale undergrad? or, did you find him in a different setting?

I'm not sure if I see Shiller and Bogle as being incompatible. Bogle says individuals aren't able to beat the market, so just buy in and ride it. Shiller says there is a lot of psychology which causes overreactions, but most mortals can only identify them in hindsight.

What am I missing?
__________________

__________________
Independent is offline   Reply With Quote
Join the #1 Early Retirement and Financial Independence Forum Today - It's Totally Free!

Are you planning to be financially independent as early as possible so you can live life on your own terms? Discuss successful investing strategies, asset allocation models, tax strategies and other related topics in our online forum community. Our members range from young folks just starting their journey to financial independence, military retirees and even multimillionaires. No matter where you fit in you'll find that Early-Retirement.org is a great community to join. Best of all it's totally FREE!

You are currently viewing our boards as a guest so you have limited access to our community. Please take the time to register and you will gain a lot of great new features including; the ability to participate in discussions, network with our members, see fewer ads, upload photographs, create a retirement blog, send private messages and so much, much more!

Old 11-06-2008, 06:42 PM   #22
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 4,764
Quote:
Originally Posted by plex View Post
Give me back my 3 minutes it took me to read this thread

I take it you dont enjoy a good wine..
__________________

__________________
Notmuchlonger is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-06-2008, 06:55 PM   #23
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
bbbamI's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Dallas 'burb
Posts: 9,039
Quote:
Originally Posted by FIREdreamer View Post
Dnftt
Took me a minute to understand what you said. I agree. I do have to say that chili makes me burp. Ok, I'm done now.
__________________
There's no need to complicate, our time is short..
bbbamI is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-06-2008, 07:07 PM   #24
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Goonie's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: North-Central Illinois
Posts: 3,198
Dang! I had my 'Ignore User' list emptied, and now there's a troll living new client there again!
__________________
Goonie is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-06-2008, 07:15 PM   #25
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Kansas City
Posts: 7,408
Quote:
Originally Posted by Goonie View Post
Dang! I had my 'Ignore User' list emptied, and now there's a troll living new client there again!
Nope - not new - but according to my PM - an adjustment has been made.

heh heh heh - actually a thunderstorm/cold front behind coming thru this part of Missouri - must be the weather.
__________________
unclemick is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-06-2008, 07:20 PM   #26
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Dawg52's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Central MS/Orange Beach, AL
Posts: 7,434
Quote:
Originally Posted by Roger Lococco View Post
Out of the market poster in Nov. 2007. How about you? Still following the Kool Aid saleman?
Funny how some of these guys got out of the market just at the right time. You da man!
__________________
Retired 3/31/2007@52
Full time wuss.......
Dawg52 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-06-2008, 07:27 PM   #27
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Kansas City
Posts: 7,408
Oh and one more thing - LSU and Alabama, Nov 8th, Tiger stadium, Baton Rouge.

heh heh heh - home field not withstanding, I think Saban has this one!

like Bogle's balanced index, policy portfolio - agile, mobile, and hostile.

ok ok it's a stretch but you get the idea. Right?
__________________
unclemick is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-06-2008, 07:35 PM   #28
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
Dawg52's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Central MS/Orange Beach, AL
Posts: 7,434
Quote:
Originally Posted by unclemick View Post
Oh and one more thing - LSU and Alabama, Nov 8th, Tiger stadium, Baton Rouge.

heh heh heh - home field not withstanding, I think Saban has this one!
Your probably right. But the sawed off little buzzard makes too much money. I'll have to pull for LSU.
__________________
Retired 3/31/2007@52
Full time wuss.......
Dawg52 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-06-2008, 08:18 PM   #29
Moderator Emeritus
Rich_by_the_Bay's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: San Francisco
Posts: 8,827
FYI, since some information has already be deduced, Roger has been excused and shouldn't inconvenience you any further. He was a known problem poster in disguise.
__________________
Rich
San Francisco Area
ESR'd March 2010. FIRE'd January 2011.

As if you didn't know..If the above message contains medical content, it's NOT intended as advice, and may not be accurate, applicable or sufficient. Don't rely on it for any purpose. Consult your own doctor for all medical advice.
Rich_by_the_Bay is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-06-2008, 08:30 PM   #30
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
freebird5825's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: East Nowhere, 43N Latitude, NY
Posts: 9,017
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rich_in_Tampa View Post
FYI, since some information has already be deduced, Roger has been excused and shouldn't inconvenience you any further. He was a known problem poster in disguise.
i just love the part where the cavalry rides in. TY!
__________________
"All our dreams can come true, if we have the courage to pursue them." - Walt Disney
freebird5825 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-06-2008, 08:40 PM   #31
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
NW-Bound's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 19,398
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rich_in_Tampa View Post
He was a known problem poster in disguise.
Now that my curiosity has been piqued ...

Is there a cross-reference to his previous screennames?
__________________
NW-Bound is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 11-06-2008, 08:55 PM   #32
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
bbbamI's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Dallas 'burb
Posts: 9,039
problem poster in disguise...
__________________
There's no need to complicate, our time is short..
bbbamI is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-06-2008, 09:03 PM   #33
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
saluki9's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 2,032
Quote:
Originally Posted by Roger Lococco View Post
Out of the market poster in Nov. 2007. How about you? Still following the Kool Aid saleman?
I've seen plenty of posts and met plenty of people telling me they were out of the market last November,

Yet nobody was posting last November about getting out and non of the self professed experts want to show me their confirms.
__________________
saluki9 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-06-2008, 09:12 PM   #34
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
harley's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Following the nice weather
Posts: 6,422
It matters not whether thou believest in Bogle. Bogle believest in thou.
__________________
"Good judgment comes from experience. Experience comes from bad judgement." - Will Rogers, or maybe Sam Clemens
DW and I - FIREd at 50 (7/06), living off assets
harley is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-07-2008, 09:09 AM   #35
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Goonie's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: North-Central Illinois
Posts: 3,198
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rich_in_Tampa View Post
FYI, since some information has already be deduced, Roger has been excused and shouldn't inconvenience you any further. He was a known problem poster in disguise.
Cooool...thanks Mods! My troll cage 'Ignore List' is empty again.....'til the next loser comes along.
__________________
Goonie is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-07-2008, 10:04 AM   #36
Recycles dryer sheets
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 384
Quote:
Originally Posted by Roger Lococco View Post
Just wondering if people still believe the Bogle approach. If so are you pumping money into indexes?
I've lost faith and I'm going back to good ol' Ameriprise!
__________________
JoeDreaming is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-07-2008, 10:30 AM   #37
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 1,543
a lot of Bogleheads looked at the 1980 - 2000 returns and thought they would always continue. if you look at the last 100 years or so there are several periods of 10 - 22 years where the market is flat with severe losses in between. if you are a buy and hold investor than you should be prepared to live through these.

good thing is that these tend to run in fairly regular patterns and you can guess the next approximate bear market within a year or two.
__________________
al_bundy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-07-2008, 10:37 AM   #38
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Kansas City
Posts: 7,408
Quote:
Originally Posted by al_bundy View Post
a lot of Bogleheads looked at the 1980 - 2000 returns and thought they would always continue. if you look at the last 100 years or so there are several periods of 10 - 22 years where the market is flat with severe losses in between. if you are a buy and hold investor than you should be prepared to live through these.

good thing is that these tend to run in fairly regular patterns and you can guess the next approximate bear market within a year or two.
Exacta mundo on part one - SEC yield and the Norwegian widow are my faithfull companions. Hence my long running pssst Wellesley humor.

As for part two - nailing the bear timing even within a year or two - 'You're a better man than I am Gunga Din.'

heh heh heh -
__________________
unclemick is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-07-2008, 11:18 AM   #39
Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 1,543
major bull market tops

1929
1968
2000 or 2007 depending on how you look at it

approximately 40 years between each one

major bear market bottoms
1932
1973
2013?

approximately 40 years between each on depending on when the current bear will bottom

there are a lot of smaller bull market tops in between, 1907, 1937, 1919, 1914, 1987, 1966 and too many others

i'm reading The Elliott Wave Principle and there is a section there about some guy who decided to map all the bull/bear markets back in the 1950's or sometime back then. He found that if you look at the number of years/weeks/months between them they all followed a regular pattern. I think his data was up to the 1950's or 1960's and up until 1987 the pattern followed exactly to the year. and the interval period between them also matched up to Fibonacci (aka Leanardo of Pisa) numbers whether it was years, months or weeks. up until 1987 it was 8,9 and then 10 years for bull/bear cycles. first it would be 8 years, then 9 and then 10 and then repeat the pattern.

this is why i don't invest in Target funds. i'm scheduled to retire around 2035 and there will probably be a major bear market if history repeats itself. why would i want to be in bonds when stocks will probably make some nice gains just before the bear
__________________
al_bundy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-07-2008, 01:47 PM   #40
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso)
Give me a forum ...
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Kansas City
Posts: 7,408
Quote:
Originally Posted by al_bundy View Post
major bull market tops -----------------------------------------------
approximately 40 years between each on depending on when the current bear will bottom

this is why i don't invest in Target funds. i'm scheduled to retire around 2035 and there will probably be a major bear market if history repeats itself. why would i want to be in bonds when stocks will probably make some nice gains just before the bear

Schrodinger's cat.

heh heh heh - I'm in ER - like the late Bear Bryant's ideal linebacker - stay balanced - that way you never have to open the box to see if the cat is dead or alive.
__________________

__________________
unclemick is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
John Bogle on Bill Moyers maxer Other topics 1 09-29-2007 12:57 PM
Hurricane Bogle? mickeyd FIRE and Money 1 02-15-2007 05:42 PM
Bogle and Global Investing Rich_by_the_Bay FIRE and Money 20 09-26-2006 09:31 PM
Happy BD Indexing, thanks to one J. Bogle mickeyd FIRE and Money 0 08-31-2006 05:13 PM
The Bogle Blog Cool Dood FIRE and Money 12 06-07-2006 06:37 PM

 

 
All times are GMT -6. The time now is 04:20 PM.
 
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.