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11-06-2008, 05:41 PM
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#21
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 4,629
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Roger Lococco
Or does Prof. Shiller seem like a slightly more informed intellect.
Remember that Prof Shiller saw the current situation coming and clearly.
I attended two classes taught by Prof Shiller and he seemed very , ohhh, not humble but like, ordinary guy.
Bogle seems like a showman, and people with little time to investigate, love a show.
Just wondering if people still believe the Bogle approach. If so are you pumping money into indexes?
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If you attended two courses taught by Prof Shiller, than you were a Yale undergrad? or, did you find him in a different setting?
I'm not sure if I see Shiller and Bogle as being incompatible. Bogle says individuals aren't able to beat the market, so just buy in and ride it. Shiller says there is a lot of psychology which causes overreactions, but most mortals can only identify them in hindsight.
What am I missing?
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11-06-2008, 05:42 PM
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#22
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 4,764
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I take it you dont enjoy a good wine..
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11-06-2008, 05:55 PM
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#23
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Collin County, TX
Posts: 9,293
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FIREdreamer
Dnftt
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Took me a minute to understand what you said. I agree. I do have to say that chili makes me burp. Ok, I'm done now.
__________________
There's no need to complicate, our time is short..
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11-06-2008, 06:07 PM
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#24
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: North-Central Illinois
Posts: 3,228
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Dang! I had my 'Ignore User' list emptied, and now there's a troll living new client there again!
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11-06-2008, 06:15 PM
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#25
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Kansas City
Posts: 7,968
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Goonie
Dang! I had my 'Ignore User' list emptied, and now there's a troll living new client there again!
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Nope - not new - but according to my PM - an adjustment has been made.
heh heh heh - actually a thunderstorm/cold front behind coming thru this part of Missouri - must be the weather.
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11-06-2008, 06:20 PM
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#26
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Central MS/Orange Beach, AL
Posts: 9,067
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Roger Lococco
Out of the market poster in Nov. 2007. How about you? Still following the Kool Aid saleman?
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Funny how some of these guys got out of the market just at the right time. You da man!
__________________
Retired 3/31/2007@52
Investing style: Full time wuss.
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11-06-2008, 06:27 PM
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#27
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Kansas City
Posts: 7,968
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Oh and one more thing - LSU and Alabama, Nov 8th, Tiger stadium, Baton Rouge.
heh heh heh - home field not withstanding, I think Saban has this one!
like Bogle's balanced index, policy portfolio - agile, mobile, and hostile.
ok ok it's a stretch but you get the idea. Right?
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11-06-2008, 06:35 PM
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#28
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Central MS/Orange Beach, AL
Posts: 9,067
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Quote:
Originally Posted by unclemick
Oh and one more thing - LSU and Alabama, Nov 8th, Tiger stadium, Baton Rouge.
heh heh heh - home field not withstanding, I think Saban has this one!
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Your probably right. But the sawed off little buzzard makes too much money. I'll have to pull for LSU.
__________________
Retired 3/31/2007@52
Investing style: Full time wuss.
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11-06-2008, 07:18 PM
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#29
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Moderator Emeritus
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: San Francisco
Posts: 8,827
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FYI, since some information has already be deduced, Roger has been excused and shouldn't inconvenience you any further. He was a known problem poster in disguise.
__________________
Rich
San Francisco Area
ESR'd March 2010. FIRE'd January 2011.
As if you didn't know..If the above message contains medical content, it's NOT intended as advice, and may not be accurate, applicable or sufficient. Don't rely on it for any purpose. Consult your own doctor for all medical advice.
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11-06-2008, 07:30 PM
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#30
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: East Nowhere, 43N Latitude, NY
Posts: 9,037
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rich_in_Tampa
FYI, since some information has already be deduced, Roger has been excused and shouldn't inconvenience you any further. He was a known problem poster in disguise.
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i just love the part where the cavalry rides in. TY!
__________________
"All our dreams can come true, if we have the courage to pursue them." - Walt Disney
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11-06-2008, 07:40 PM
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#31
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 35,712
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rich_in_Tampa
He was a known problem poster in disguise.
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Now that my curiosity has been piqued ...
Is there a cross-reference to his previous screennames?
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11-06-2008, 07:55 PM
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#32
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Collin County, TX
Posts: 9,293
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problem poster in disguise...
__________________
There's no need to complicate, our time is short..
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11-06-2008, 08:03 PM
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#33
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Feb 2005
Posts: 2,032
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Roger Lococco
Out of the market poster in Nov. 2007. How about you? Still following the Kool Aid saleman?
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I've seen plenty of posts and met plenty of people telling me they were out of the market last November,
Yet nobody was posting last November about getting out and non of the self professed experts want to show me their confirms.
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11-06-2008, 08:12 PM
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#34
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: May 2008
Location: No fixed abode
Posts: 8,764
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It matters not whether thou believest in Bogle. Bogle believest in thou.
__________________
"Good judgment comes from experience. Experience comes from bad judgement." - Anonymous (not Will Rogers or Sam Clemens)
DW and I - FIREd at 50 (7/06), living off assets
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11-07-2008, 08:09 AM
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#35
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: North-Central Illinois
Posts: 3,228
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rich_in_Tampa
FYI, since some information has already be deduced, Roger has been excused and shouldn't inconvenience you any further. He was a known problem poster in disguise.
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Cooool...thanks Mods! My troll cage 'Ignore List' is empty again.....'til the next loser comes along.
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11-07-2008, 09:04 AM
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#36
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Full time employment: Posting here.
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 838
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11-07-2008, 09:30 AM
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#37
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 1,543
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a lot of Bogleheads looked at the 1980 - 2000 returns and thought they would always continue. if you look at the last 100 years or so there are several periods of 10 - 22 years where the market is flat with severe losses in between. if you are a buy and hold investor than you should be prepared to live through these.
good thing is that these tend to run in fairly regular patterns and you can guess the next approximate bear market within a year or two.
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11-07-2008, 09:37 AM
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#38
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Kansas City
Posts: 7,968
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Quote:
Originally Posted by al_bundy
a lot of Bogleheads looked at the 1980 - 2000 returns and thought they would always continue. if you look at the last 100 years or so there are several periods of 10 - 22 years where the market is flat with severe losses in between. if you are a buy and hold investor than you should be prepared to live through these.
good thing is that these tend to run in fairly regular patterns and you can guess the next approximate bear market within a year or two.
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Exacta mundo on part one - SEC yield and the Norwegian widow are my faithfull companions. Hence my long running pssst Wellesley humor.
As for part two - nailing the bear timing even within a year or two - 'You're a better man than I am Gunga Din.'
heh heh heh -
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11-07-2008, 10:18 AM
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#39
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Thinks s/he gets paid by the post
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 1,543
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major bull market tops
1929
1968
2000 or 2007 depending on how you look at it
approximately 40 years between each one
major bear market bottoms
1932
1973
2013?
approximately 40 years between each on depending on when the current bear will bottom
there are a lot of smaller bull market tops in between, 1907, 1937, 1919, 1914, 1987, 1966 and too many others
i'm reading The Elliott Wave Principle and there is a section there about some guy who decided to map all the bull/bear markets back in the 1950's or sometime back then. He found that if you look at the number of years/weeks/months between them they all followed a regular pattern. I think his data was up to the 1950's or 1960's and up until 1987 the pattern followed exactly to the year. and the interval period between them also matched up to Fibonacci (aka Leanardo of Pisa) numbers whether it was years, months or weeks. up until 1987 it was 8,9 and then 10 years for bull/bear cycles. first it would be 8 years, then 9 and then 10 and then repeat the pattern.
this is why i don't invest in Target funds. i'm scheduled to retire around 2035 and there will probably be a major bear market if history repeats itself. why would i want to be in bonds when stocks will probably make some nice gains just before the bear
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11-07-2008, 12:47 PM
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#40
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Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Kansas City
Posts: 7,968
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Quote:
Originally Posted by al_bundy
major bull market tops -----------------------------------------------
approximately 40 years between each on depending on when the current bear will bottom
this is why i don't invest in Target funds. i'm scheduled to retire around 2035 and there will probably be a major bear market if history repeats itself. why would i want to be in bonds when stocks will probably make some nice gains just before the bear
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Schrodinger's cat.
heh heh heh - I'm in ER - like the late Bear Bryant's ideal linebacker - stay balanced - that way you never have to open the box to see if the cat is dead or alive.
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