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Old 03-03-2014, 02:31 PM   #21
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And what might be scarier about this situation is, if Putin gets away with taking over Ukraine, what would stop him from then taking over Georgia, Belarus, the Baltic countries, etc? Would the world sit back and let that happen??

And would that perhaps affect the markets?
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Old 03-03-2014, 02:32 PM   #22
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Suppose they had a fair election in Crimea and the population voted to secede from Ukraine and become a state of Russia. Wouldn't that be perfectly OK? Isn't that what democracy is all about?

What I find remarkable is the amount of misinformation going on. The Russian media flat out spreads rumors, so if you are a Russian or Ukrainian reading the Russian media, then you are upset. Perhaps even Putin believes what his propagandists are telling him.
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Old 03-03-2014, 03:50 PM   #23
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Anticipate a bit or a stiffening of NATO's spine, and more assistance (not troops, but tech and $$) to the eastern frontier with the USSR Russian Federation.

Interesting that there have been some protests in Moscow. If this is played right, this could hurt Putin, but there's no present indication that it's being played right.

The urgent step for now is to halt the spread at Crimea, to assure eastern Ukraine that their long-term interests are with the west, not Russia.

Ukraine gave up the nuclear weapons on her territory after the USSR broke up. They did this in exchange for guarantees that Russia would stay out. So much for the much-dreamed of rollback in the nuclear club. The lesson has already been learned that nuclear weapons are a much more effective guarantee of neighborly nonaggression than any paper agreement.

Ukrainians, Georgians, Poles, Czechs--it helps to travel over there a bit. What they went through is still fresh on their minds. They will do a lot to avoid a repeat. I wish them all good luck, as they've had their share of the other kind.
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Old 03-03-2014, 03:55 PM   #24
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Crimea, it's the grammar police!
Cry me a river.

(Not to misunderstood: Crimea River)
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Old 03-03-2014, 03:58 PM   #25
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Anyone worried about the Ukrainian situation?

Troubles in Eurasia are better than troubles in Uranus...

Russia will do what it deems necessary to defend it's interests, particularly access to the Black Sea. I'm currently cautiously optimistic that they aren't planning to occupy the whole of Ukraine. If one of our bases around the world seemed threatened, you can bet we'd (we being the USA) move military assets into the region. Hopefully, a negotiated solution will be forthcoming, but likely not without more turmoil.

As for my investments, I'm unlikely to change course, unless things get really hairy...
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Old 03-03-2014, 04:02 PM   #26
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Not at all. The economic fallout of Russias takover of Ukrane will have about as much impact on the world's finances as the Russian takover of Hungary in 1956.

There will be much hot ir blown, otherwise, no impact.
IMHO this is a pretty unique situation, with Russia having a major southern naval base there, and so many ethnic Russians. Nevertheless it is a long term loosing position for Putin and Russia no matter what option they choose, both economically and politically.

In spite of calls from some US politicians for 'action', there wont be sanctions or anything else other than some symbolic G8 (G7?) meeting posturing, freezing some mostly symbolic transactions, etc. Both sides know they are not the only ones who get to move the chess pieces here.

Even now the Russians are seeing the economic effects in their falling markets and currency. And both the other European countries and Russia see the disaster a trade war would have.

Long term this is really bad for Russia, tips their hand (heavy hand) and makes their neighbors even more wary of ties with them. There will be more long dislike of Russia in Ukraine and an even stronger desire to be allied with the west.

Short term it makes Putin vastly more popular in Russia (they like strong shirtless leaders apparently), so short term is a plus for him. But he has to stop short of disturbing the economic conditions to severely or risk tipping Russia into a deep recession.

Other than as a source for raw materials and gas and oil, Russia is not too critical to the world economy, so I doubt there will be much economic impact in the west, assuming the west and Ukraine will still keep buying Russian energy resources.

We have been in much much greater areas of differences with Russia in the past. This is pretty localized and will likely remain so.

On the other hand... It made no sense for the assassination of a minor Austrian archduke to start a world war either. So I guess when you assume that people or countries will act in their best long term interest, you have to take it everything with a hopeful grain of salt.
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Old 03-03-2014, 04:07 PM   #27
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Crimea, it's the grammar police!
No, no.....it's the Nomenclature Police.
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Old 03-03-2014, 04:12 PM   #28
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Knowing the Russians, they had this planned long ago. (Hey, I'm Russian )
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Old 03-03-2014, 04:14 PM   #29
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On the other hand... It made no sense for the assassination of a minor Austrian archduke to start a world war either. So I guess when you assume that people or countries will act in their best long term interest, you have to take it everything with a hopeful grain of salt.
Exactly! In fact WWII would not have happened if WWI had not occurred. This one small act ultimately got 100 million people killed.
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Old 03-03-2014, 04:23 PM   #30
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This is mostly a Ukraine civil war: West wants to be united with Europe, East wants to be united with Russia. Of course Russia wants to keep their naval base. The UN is worthless and any sanctions are hopelessly ineffective, just like the rest of the UN as a whole.

Back to OP question. No, I think this is just another blip demonstrating market volatility. Just ride it out.
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Old 03-03-2014, 04:28 PM   #31
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Anyone worried about the Ukrainian situation?

I probably should be worried about the Ukraine, but I'm just not.

The whole thing seems like a tempest in a teapot up to this point. Lots of saber rattling and growling going on. Maybe it will be worth worrying about later, but I have no idea about the future.
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Old 03-03-2014, 04:42 PM   #32
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Could this be the "Black Swan" event the markets have been anticipating? The most important advice my father ever gave me was: It's not whats so, it's what people think is so!
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Old 03-03-2014, 05:17 PM   #33
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Glad I took some profits during the past two weeks when a certain stock hit a high. That plus proceeds from selling a house should keep us in eggs and bacon for at least a couple of years
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Old 03-03-2014, 05:22 PM   #34
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Glad I took some profits during the past two weeks when a certain stock hit a high. That plus proceeds from selling a house should keep us in eggs and bacon for at least a couple of years
Eggs & bacon? Didn't you mean Rice-A-Roni?
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Old 03-03-2014, 05:48 PM   #35
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I'm going to make a prediction that one year from now, nobody is even going to remember that the Ukraine was in the news.
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Old 03-03-2014, 05:49 PM   #36
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That too.
And by the way Russia is still upset over losing the Crimean War in the mid 1800's to Britain, France, et al.
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Old 03-03-2014, 06:05 PM   #37
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Old 03-03-2014, 06:06 PM   #38
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Suppose they had a fair election in Crimea and the population voted to secede from Ukraine and become a state of Russia. Wouldn't that be perfectly OK? Isn't that what democracy is all about?
So... you'd be OK with Texas seceding from the union?
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Old 03-03-2014, 06:11 PM   #39
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The only effect there might be is Ukraine having to replace it's supply of natural gas on the open market after Russia cuts them off.

IMO the Crimea situation will have the same effect on the world economy as Northern Ireland did for most of the 20th century (none). When Stalin moved the original inhabitants of the Crimea out and replaced them with ethnic Russians it created a situation historically similar to Northern Ireland where the English had replaced the Irish inhabitants with Scots and English. After the Irish revolution those folks still wanted to be part of the UK. Russia is probably going for the same result in the Ukraine: A semi-autonomous Crimea as part of Russia.
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Old 03-03-2014, 06:13 PM   #40
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I'm going to make a prediction that one year from now, nobody is even going to remember that the Ukraine was in the news.
Did someone say that same thing about IRAQ?
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